(en) Egypt / Tunisia, The pieces of baguette military and social dimensions of the revolution by Habib Ayeb (fr)

January 14, 2011, I was with thousands of Tunisians outside the Ministry of the Interior, 
located off Avenue Bourguiba in Tunis. A few yards away on the Place de l'Horloge, stood 
dozens of soldiers, including a number of senior officers. They observed the situation 
without intervening directly and at that time, nobody knew which way they leaned. ---- 
While the demonstrators shouted "off, back off" by setting eyes ministry face a military 
senior officer (probably a whole) is advanced toward the protesters quietly munching a 
piece of baguette and snuck in the middle of the crowd. Once surrounded by protesters, he 
paused for a moment, repressed a clogged wand, looked round at him, and threw in a low 
voice "hold on, do not be afraid, the army is with you," before leave to join his colleagues.

The "message" mysterious immediately through the crowd, accompanied by dozens of 
questions: Who was this soldier? Who originated the message exactly? The military was sent 
there by Rachid Ammar, head of the army? Was it a man or a personal coded message sent by 
an army that had already decided to put on the side of the people act? Was it a trap? A 
challenge to better justify repression? In a few minutes, I heard all these questions and 
many others, as well as multiple answers, assumptions ... And the crowd reprendri her 
screams "off, back off ..."

It has been known, the sequence of events and the role that the military played to force 
Ben Ali to give up power and to "facilitate" a transition, after all, peaceful. We also 
know how the Tunisians of all stripes have "celebrated" and thanked the military. Despite 
all the toughest drifts and the slow transition moments, Rachid Ammar is still in the eyes 
of much of the population, a leader and a "liberator of the people." Some did not hesitate 
to compare it to a De Gaulle ...

A few days later, I went to Cairo Midan Tahrir and precisely where I attended / 
participated in two or three major events - "millionaires" - before and after the fall of 
Mubarak. I still remember the cries of "El Gueich we Echa3b Eid Wahda" site (literally, 
the army and the people, one hand), what seemed to me a mistake and an aberration. If I 
understand what kind of "excesses", induced by the enthusiasm and collective appease the 
military and avoid confrontation with her will, this formula seemed and still seems to be 
a political mistake. The army and the people can obviously be on common interests, but 
will never be "one hand." The seizure of power by the army (remember SCAF) and the fierce 
repression, she did not hesitate to exercise against the demonstrators up to stop young 
women to check their virginity ... We also remember how the military did everything to 
avoid Mubarak, their man, a real trial. We know how they played and negotiated with the 
Muslim Brotherhood before giving them the power, against part of maintaining all the 
political and financial privileges they receive from the coup (revolution?) Nasser ...

Following is history, since 14 January in Tunisia until yesterday evening in Cairo. Miles 
of articles, books, films have been "published" on the subject has also been subject of 
hundreds of academic meetings, media or "militant." Yet, with the exception of a few 
"analysts" and "political" nobody spoke of "coup" to describe the role of the Tunisian 
army and the Egyptian army in the fall of dictatorships Ben Ali and Mubarak. But many 
stressed and often condemned, rightly, the seizure of power by the Egyptian army and its 
repressive policies directed against those same shouting just before and after the fall of 
Mubarak "the army and the people, one hand "...

...

Since yesterday evening, there is a similar to what happened on 11 February 2011 scenario. 
In both cases, the armed forces the president to abandon his post. In both cases, the army 
is justified by the "duty" to protect the "people" and "nation." In both cases, Midan 
Tahrir was partying until dawn.

But this time, something makes a difference. Even before the announcement of the removal 
of the president-elect Morsi, many Egyptians, Tunisians and observers of "foreigners", 
spoke of "coup." In other places in Cairo, thousands of Egyptians chanted in vain their 
support Morsi on behalf of the "legitimacy". To this, several explanations. The most 
important point is qu'indiscutablement nothing compares Morsi Mubarak. While Muslims and 
Morsi Brothers, came to power through a "democratic" election, committed monumental 
political and strategic mistakes. While they succeeded in a very short time, to disappoint 
even those who voted for them, there are only a few months, pushing them to fall into the 
opposition. While Morsi made the mistake "fatal" for not having understood the magnitude 
of the challenge that has managed to raise millions (not less than four Egyptian) in the 
squares and streets of all the Egypt, June 30, 2013. This policy mistake cost him his job 
today, with / because of the army who shot the "good" lesson monster demonstration on 
Sunday (30 June).

The army took the opportunity, once again, to return to the spotlight. These are the 
arguments of those who spoke, yesterday, a "coup."

Yet, without any comparison or connection between an elected Morsi and Mubarak, dictator 
who "alone is elected," I do not see a fundamental difference between the political role 
played by the Egyptian army yesterday and played by same army on 11 February 2011. Dan 
both cases, the army took "his" decision to change the rules of the game, forcing the 
power to leave his place. Either yesterday or today, the army was a revolutionary 
discovery "soul." Either yesterday or today, the army abandoned its privileges. Either 
yesterday or today the army has no intention of "giving" power to the people in 
revolution. Either yesterday or today the army seems to have understood that we are 
witnessing real long and complex profound revolutionary process, which feed for years, not 
just since 2011, political, social and economic deprivation, which affects a large part of 
the population. Today, as yesterday, the Egyptian army tries to impose its own vision, its 
own strategy and its own "reading" of history and society.

At best it is merely a "good bargains" power to 'civilian' transfer. At worst, it will 
retry to play directly, as it did after the fall of Mubarak, with the consequences and the 
results we know.

In any case, yesterday the military intervention will not stop the revolutionary process. 
It cedes power or it hangs, there will, no doubt, new events and new mobilizations against 
the power that will be installed.

Why?

The answer is in a "good" analysis tammarod (the rebel movement, which has garnered over 
22 million signatures, according to its "leaders"). It certainly will take more time and 
perspective to offer real analysis that address all dimensions. But it already seems 
possible to offer some thoughts. 22 million signatures in a country-not - account - what 
82 million people, far exceeds the "elite" Egyptian and even the whole of the "middle 
class" above. This number could never be achieved without the massive support of millions 
of Egyptians from the popular classes, with what they have peasants, unemployed, 
low-income workers, excluded and marginalized. I dare even think that the majority of 
signatories raised in this protest movement is certainly original "popular." Many of them 
had obviously voted for FM and Morsi.

But what also seems important to highlight and analyze well, if one wants to understand 
what happened these last three days, this is the origin of the disappointment of the 
millions of Egyptians who took to the street on June 30. Since the mid-2000s until today, 
through January and February 2011, the social protest has never stopped and has continued 
to increase day after day and week after week. If we limit ourselves to the post-Mubarak 
period, hundreds of strikes and sit-ins were held every week in Cairo last Egyptian town 
(we see the same thing in Tunisia). Contexts change from one place or area to another, but 
the demands are still the same: income, employment, services, resources, housing, 
infrastructure, hospitals, schools and Dignity. Every successive government tried to ban, 
to suppress or respond with targeted and temporary concessions, but failed to stop them, 
quite the contrary.

I was fortunate to be in Egypt, he just weeks, and I have found, surprisingly - I must 
admit it scale mobilization for Tamarrod, particularly in small rural villages . I spent 
several days traveling the Delta and Fayoum, for the purposes of a work in progress, and I 
was able to achieve and how this movement exceeded largely urban, affluent middle class 
and the "elites" . I do not remember one time where people met (by appointment or 
spontaneously), including farmers, have not expressed their dissatisfaction and their 
mobilization against the power of FM and Morsi, even a large many of them had voted for 
them in every election since 2011. These people have not become less - not more - 
religious. My interlocutors have not discovered the "trends" and even less revolutionary 
rebels. I dare even say they have no specific claims on policies and individual freedoms.

No, they just seem to have been forgotten the day after the elections. They live well, and 
make their life much more difficult than before. They all feel, almost, more excluded than 
before. Each time, they rushed to show us their "leaf" membership tamarrod. These are the 
folks who filled the streets and squares Egyptian June 30. These are the folks who are 
involved in maintaining and nurturing the revolutionary process, because they are 
convinced of their right to a life "worthy" ... because they have social and economic 
demands because they know undeniable ... they put a light contained in the word "right."

Some politicians, observers, journalists, military experts and researchers do not see and 
do not know whether intentionally or not, it's nothing surprising or surprising ... But 
you can always count on all those who advocate the all policies, certainly, but also / 
especially economic, social and environmental to prevent dictatorships to settle 
permanently in this new Egypt rights. If they continue to ignore them, today's leaders, in 
uniform or "civil" will never have peace "winners."

Like yesterday, there will be new on January 14, February 11 and new new July 3 in Egypt, 
Tunisia and elsewhere fatally.

Even if it looks like it strong in many ways, what happened yesterday is not a military 
coup. The military did not choose to act, they were forced and compelled by millions of 
Egyptians who demonstrated and show still massively since 30 June 2013.

What happened yesterday is not the "second" revolution. What happened yesterday is just 
the revolutionary process that continues for more than just rights against real Morsi 
yesterday Ghannouchi or tomorrow.