#WORLD #WORLDWIDE #ITALY #ANARCHISM #News #Journal #Update - (en) Italy, Milano, FAI: War and energy horizons. An increasingly armed competition. (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

 The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is placing the accent on various issues including

energy with its numerous implications, from economic to geopolitical ones. All
crisis situations have in themselves an apparently contradictory aspect: on the
one hand they ask for urgent solutions to deal with the unexpected, on the other
hand they offer opportunities, open to future scenarios. So let's see in this
perspective how and what is changing in the global framework. ---- The emergency
is represented by energy security. Europe in general and Italy in particular is
Russian-dependent - the latter with shares respectively of 40% of gas consumption
and about a quarter of its oil imports. A significant contraction or suspension
of supplies of blue gold and black gold is not conceivable for the production
system: Italy, to date, consumes 73.3 billion cubic meters of gas, therefore the
interruption of the Russian flow would lead to a shortage , for the present year,
of approximately 16-18 billion cubic meters. The difference is not immediately
recoverable, neither through the increase in supplies from other countries, nor
through the import of liquid gas (LNG) due to the lack of regasification plants.
The contribution of renewables would not solve the situation, considering that
the construction of the infrastructures necessary for their operation would still
take years. The energy shock would lead to a sharp rise in prices, it would
dramatically increase the inflationary push which, it should be emphasized, was
already underway before the start of hostilities.

A cliché needs to be dispelled. The rise in prices, or simply the high cost of
living which is eroding wages and pension rents, putting those with fewer
resources in difficulty, is not the result of war. In other articles we have
already underlined how prices in general and energy prices in particular are the
result of financial speculation, regardless of the supply of goods. According to
the calculations of the International Monetary Fund, the prices of fossil
energies, globally, increased in the period 2021-2019 by 41%. The upward thrust
is even more accentuated in the period February 2022 / February 2019 where the
total energy resources have been implemented by 94%.

In contributing to the overall result, there were two predominant sectors: coal
(+ 165%) and gas (+ 253%). If we break down the data by geographic area, Europe,
as regards the gas sector, marks a record with + 353%, data which confirm that
the rise in prices was a phenomenon prior to the conflict. For the final
consumer, this trend is reflected in a disproportionate increase in electricity:
the electricity bill in the period from April 2022 to April 2019 increased by 449%.

In and of itself such an emergency brings not only negativity but also
potentially positive aspects, that is, the search for opportunities,
alternatives. In terms of opportunities, there are two solutions: energy saving
and the study of other solutions than the use of gas. As regards the reduction in
consumption, especially those relating to domestic heating and above all
electricity, a contraction in production would arise, triggering a domino effect
on the availability of goods, on employment levels and therefore on consumer
resources. The negative effects on economic indicators, first and foremost GDP,
would be immediate.

Another solution is the search for alternative sources to gas. There are two
ways, one more readily available, that of using other fossil sources. The war
opens a new debate, completely unexpected until a few months ago. Before the
conflict, the energy choice of the future seemed to be directed, at least in the
medium to long term, towards renewables: the PNNR resources destined for the
transition to green were and are concrete evidence of this. Now the emergency is
focusing on the prompt use of other, less "green" sources, such as coal. Even in
this case, however, even before the war there was a return to the global energy
stage of coal. In the "Global Energy Review" report, published on March 8 by the
International Energy Agency, it is stated that in 2021 there was a record
year-over-year increase in CO2 emissions related to energy in absolute terms,
with an increase of 6% mainly determined by coal. In this context, it is
questionable whether the issue of climate change that has dominated in recent
years is still topical or not.

The opening towards coal is confirmed by what was reported in the information
note to the Parliament of the President of the Council last 25 February, where,
in commenting on the need for diversification of energy sources, it is clearly
stated and without the possibility of misunderstanding that the return of coal is
one of the solutions to tackle the energy emergency. Draghi in his note stated
that " Coal-fired power plants may need to be reopened to fill any shortcomings
immediately. The Government is ready to intervene to further calm down the price
of energy, should this be necessary ". The law decree n. 16 of 28 February on
energy issues confirms the return of coal "In the event of the adoption of
measures aimed at reducing the consumption of natural gas in the thermoelectric
sector1, the company Terna SpA ( Italian company operating the electricity
transmission grids) prepares a program for maximizing the use of electricity
generation plants with rated thermal power exceeding 300 MW that use coal or fuel
oil in normal operating conditions, for the estimated duration of the emergency ".

We recall that there are seven coal-fired power plants in Italy and, according to
the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) of the Ministry of
Economic Development, they will have to be decommissioned or converted by the end
of 2025. There are two of them in Sardinia , one in Liguria, Veneto,
Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Lazio and Puglia. Five of these are managed by ENEL, one
by A2A and one by EP Produzione, the Italian branch of the Czech EPH group.
According to the Terna Company, the net margin of Italian coal plants increased
by 50% in the period December 2021 / December 2019. An unwelcome "return", that
of nuclear power, should not be underestimated. The inclusion of nuclear energy
in the European list of green energies (supported by France and Italy and also
pre-war) is not a coincidence but a precise political and economic direction.

If the energy emergency pushes on the one hand the use of sources that are now
"ready to use", on the other hand, as mentioned in the introduction,
opportunities are emerging and in this perspective the debate on renewable energy
is reopened. The renewable energy option must solve two knots. The first is the
non-immediate implementation of the structures and infrastructures necessary to
offset the share of energy now derived from gas. The other node, the main one, is
a radical change in the geopolitical framework. In a system based on fossil
fuels, the main objective of the individual states was to secure supplies. The
unequal geographical distribution of oil and gas pushes States to organize an
economic and military presence in the territories where resources are
concentrated or along the transit routes of oil and gas pipelines in order to
secure the energy source. In summary, today's geopolitical framework overlaps
roughly with the geoenergetic one.

The energy transition towards renewables would radically change the scenario:
renewable sources are homogeneously distributed from a geographical geopolitical
point of view. The localization of energy sources loses weight while the capacity
of each country to develop conversion technologies (photovoltaic, wind,
hydroelectric, geothermal, green hydrogen production) gains value. The complexity
of a system, such as that of renewables, implies a technological capacity for the
efficient management of non-programmable energy sources. The country system, that
is, the baggage of technological and scientific skills becomes the primary factor.

However, this capacity does not completely eliminate the geo-energy dependence.
If with the advent of renewables the current geopolitical and geoeconomic
scenarios, such as the Gulf countries, Russia, just to name the major ones, lose
value, a different dependence emerges with renewables. The geography of the
availability of raw materials (especially those for the construction of
infrastructures) or elements (see rare earths) which constitute the basic
components of "renewable" equipment or technological tools (see digital devices)
essential for operation will radically change "green" energy. Therefore we will
witness a new geopolitical scenario much more fragmented and complex than the
current one.

In this context, Europe shows once again its current weakness in the global
context. In the new package of sanctions against Russia, prepared in recent days
by the European Commission, there was a "timid" hint of an embargo on Russian
oil. The EU imports around 26% of its oil needs from Russia. The commission has
been careful not to implement an embargo on gas, the primary energy source
imported from the Russian federation, furthermore, in order to make the embargo
"softer", it has then extended the measure over a period of six months. Despite
the "precautions" taken by the European Commission, the disagreement of Hungary,
Slovakia (the two countries respectively import 58% and 96% of their oil from
Russia), the Czech Republic and Bulgaria could not be avoided.

The story is significant of a structural political weakness of the EU. We always
remember in the energy field the deep divisions within the EU on the issue of
nuclear power: for example, Germany is gradually eliminating nuclear power
plants, while France is planning their further expansion. France, together with
Italy, has "pushed" the European Commission to introduce nuclear power on the
list of "green energies". The war therefore clearly brought out the divisions
within the EU and it is no coincidence that the diplomatic initiatives for a
mediation between Ukraine and Russia beyond the results, have been fielded by
Turkey, demonstrating a Political "impotence" or rather European geopolitical
completely evident.

Draghi, one of the major exponents of European economic interests, called out the
European Parliament, at the beginning of last week, to accelerate the
construction of a community that speaks with a single voice on defense and
foreign policy, as well as than to review the entire set of rules that regulate
the political structure of the EU. We have already underlined in recent months
the importance, for the ruling class, of the common European defense project and
therefore the need to start an "independent" European path in global competition.

Lastly, there is another aspect, often not underlined by analysts and the media,
the "psychological" aspect of the perception of the current crisis situation. In
these three years, the two emergencies, that of Covid and that of war, have left
two vulnerabilities. The first is linked to the criticalities of supplying raw
materials, not just energy, the second, to the resumption, after decades, of the
inflationary spiral, criticalities that have left their mark on economic
resources, from individuals to companies to institutions.

It will be a trivial observation but a large part of the generation under fifty
has not experienced, or has no memory or direct awareness, of these emergencies.
The "Sundays on foot" of the early seventies which brought to everyone's
attention the link between energy and geopolitics and the inflationary race of
the eighties and nineties were phenomena completely unknown to subsequent
generations. We must not underestimate how the current situation will be from the
most elaborate and what the individual and collective readings and reactions to
the current crisis will be.

Even the European narrative of a new "cold war" between two opposing worlds, the
"authoritarian" ones (of which Russia is considered one of the main exponents)
and the "free" world (in which Ukraine is included) does not stands up to the
test of facts. The world cannot be divided into ideologically opposed blocks for
a simple fact: the planet is economically "interconnected". Supply chains, not
just energy, markets are completely global. It would have been unthinkable in the
years of the "cold war" for Western countries to supply raw materials, especially
energy, from countries outside the traditional framework of political-military
alliances. The founder of ENI Enrico Mattei, with his "original" opening to
markets and countries outside Western interests, British and French Americans in
particular, he tried and paid with his life. It would have been unthinkable, in
those years, for an arms market in which Western countries, for example, Italy
count among their main customers countries outside the "Atlantic" logic such as
Quatar, Pakistan, Egypt. If the ideological reference is no longer a prejudicial
one, it is the "market" that triumphs and the market, in other words the profit,
generates a permanent conflict that from time to time takes the form of
commercial confrontation or armed confrontation. Egypt. If the ideological
reference is no longer a prejudicial one, it is the "market" that triumphs and
the market, in other words the profit, generates a permanent conflict that from
time to time takes the form of commercial confrontation or armed confrontation.
Egypt. If the ideological reference is no longer a prejudicial one, it is the
"market" that triumphs and the market, in other words the profit, generates a
permanent conflict that from time to time takes the form of commercial
confrontation or armed confrontation.

In conclusion, the conflict represents a discontinuity not only in geopolitical
relations but above all as regards energy balances and the guidelines for the
transition to green. The medium and long-term energy scenarios, as they were
designed, are put to the test of emergencies and contingent needs. The economic
situation, which has just overcome the global effects of the pandemic, finds
itself dealing with inflation and the lack of resources to be used for
consumption: in fact, the system no longer has the petrol in the tank to continue
its " race". Regardless of the way in which the crisis will develop and define
itself, one thing is certain: whoever emerges victorious will also be able to
establish new energy balances and define a new framework for geopolitical and
geo-economic relations. The scenarios that will take shape, however, will in any
case only be provisional, ie they will be a re-proposition of a different curtain
on a stage of a play that is always the same, that of the free market that no
longer finds the path of "infinite growth". What is and will be the inevitable
destiny of today's world is being highlighted, that of the competition that has
become and will become more and more armed.

Daniele Ratti

https://federazione-anarchica-milanese-fai.noblogs.org/post/2022/05/30/guerra-e-orizzonti-energetici-una-competizione-sempre-piu-armata/
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