Brazil is going through a moment of ruptures and continuities in 2022. The
election year focuses the attention and efforts of most sectors of society, andcan accelerate various movements that in other periods move more slowly. At thesame time, the ruling classes impose their guidelines so that the state ofaffairs remains as it is, with little resistance among the most organized sectorsof the oppressed classes. But we believe in the popular capacities for struggleand organization, to destroy this state of barbarism and misery. ---- Martyrdomin the Amazon ---- The news of the brutal murder of indigenist Bruno Pereira andBritish journalist Dominic Phillips had a profound impact on various sectors ofsociety, including gaining international prominence. Bruno and Dom were killedwhile on an expedition through Vale do Javari, in the western Amazon region,where the second largest indigenous land in the country is located. Bruno was arespected indigenist with a deep knowledge of the region, which has isolatedpeoples. He was the coordinator of Funai in the region, and in 2019 he wasdismissed from the leadership position for his work in combating environmentalcrimes in indigenous lands. The political murder of Dom and Bruno is related tothe presence of illegal fishermen and hunters, in the service of drugtraffickers, loggers and prospectors. These gangs gained even more space in theBolsonaro government, that dismantled environmental and indigenous people defenseagencies, in the name of economic exploitation with the devastation of biomes,encouraging the genocide of native peoples. The episode also shows the importanceof self-organization of the oppressed classes, mainly by the União dos PovosIndígenas do Vale do Javari - Univaja, which carried out the first searches andwas essential for the beginning of the investigations, but also through entitiesof servants of the Funai and journalists who helped to denounce and demand aresponse from the State. Furthermore, the fact that during the Bolsonarogovernment an indigenist and a journalist were murdered in an expedition indefense of the Amazon is not without a sad symbolism. Dom and Bruno will remainin the memory of everyone who fights for social transformation. in the name ofeconomic exploitation with the devastation of biomes, encouraging the genocide ofnative peoples. The episode also shows the importance of self-organization of theoppressed classes, mainly by the União dos Povos Indígenas do Vale do Javari -Univaja, which carried out the first searches and was essential for the beginningof the investigations, but also through entities of servants of the Funai andjournalists who helped to denounce and demand a response from the State.Furthermore, the fact that, during the Bolsonaro government, an indigenist and ajournalist were murdered in an expedition in defense of the Amazon is not withouta sad symbolism. Dom and Bruno will remain in the memory of everyone who fightsfor social transformation. in the name of economic exploitation with thedevastation of biomes, encouraging the genocide of native peoples. The episodealso shows the importance of self-organization of the oppressed classes, mainlyby the União dos Povos Indígenas do Vale do Javari - Univaja, which carried outthe first searches and was essential for the beginning of the investigations, butalso through entities of servants of the Funai and journalists who helped todenounce and demand a response from the State. Furthermore, the fact that duringthe Bolsonaro government an indigenist and a journalist were murdered in anexpedition in defense of the Amazon is not without a sad symbolism. Dom and Brunowill remain in the memory of everyone who fights for social transformation. Theepisode also shows the importance of self-organization of the oppressed classes,mainly by the União dos Povos Indígenas do Vale do Javari - Univaja, whichcarried out the first searches and was essential for the beginning of theinvestigations, but also through entities of servants of the Funai andjournalists who helped to denounce and demand a response from the State.Furthermore, the fact that, during the Bolsonaro government, an indigenist and ajournalist were murdered in an expedition in defense of the Amazon is not withouta sad symbolism. Dom and Bruno will remain in the memory of everyone who fightsfor social transformation. The episode also shows the importance ofself-organization of the oppressed classes, mainly by the União dos PovosIndígenas do Vale do Javari - Univaja, which carried out the first searches andwas essential for the beginning of the investigations, but also through entitiesof servants of the Funai and journalists who helped to denounce and demand aresponse from the State. Furthermore, the fact that during the Bolsonarogovernment an indigenist and a journalist were murdered in an expedition indefense of the Amazon is not without a sad symbolism. Dom and Bruno will remainin the memory of everyone who fights for social transformation. but also throughentities of Funai employees and journalists who helped to denounce and demand aresponse from the State. Furthermore, the fact that, during the Bolsonarogovernment, an indigenist and a journalist were murdered in an expedition indefense of the Amazon is not without a sad symbolism. Dom and Bruno will remainin the memory of everyone who fights for social transformation. but also throughentities of Funai employees and journalists who helped to denounce and demand aresponse from the State. Furthermore, the fact that during the Bolsonarogovernment an indigenist and a journalist were murdered in an expedition indefense of the Amazon is not without a sad symbolism. Dom and Bruno will remainin the memory of everyone who fights for social transformation.It is also worth recognizing that indigenous struggles have gained specialrelevance in this period, with the great mobilizations against the TemporalFramework, the struggles for demarcation in the different territories, and thedenunciations about the abuses at Funai. The native peoples have made severalconfrontations in this more recent period, keeping alive the flame against thedomination of the State and Capital, and attracting other popular movements tomobilize.Inter-imperialist dispute and impacts on the peripheryThe war in Ukraine continues and seems to mark a new stage in the dispute forworld political and economic hegemony, with the search for territorial expansionby the USA and the European Union, through NATO, Russia's attempt to recover itszone of influence, and China expanding its trade agreements in Asia, Africa andLatin America. While China has been consolidating to become the main economy onthe planet, the US is losing international influence, amid internal problems.This uncertain scenario causes conflicts and impacts on the global economy, withdisorganization of production chains (which has been happening since thebeginning of the pandemic), high commodity prices, especially oil, andconsequently an increase in inflation. Those who suffer most are the workingclasses of peripheral countries, with high prices, factory closures, moreprecarious work and unemployment. The impact hit Brazil hard, potentiated by thetougher neoliberal adjustment policies after 2015, and all this quickly worsenedthe living conditions of the oppressed classes.stagnant economyThe Brazilian economy remains stagnant, in part due to the neoliberal andanti-people policies adopted in recent years, including the pandemic, in part dueto the war in Ukraine, but also due to the disaster of Bolsonaro and the military.The great bodies of world capitalism predict a timid growth in Brazil's GDP thisyear, around 1%, well below the rest of the global economy. Which means, here,still high rates of unemployment, lowered wages and the continuation of thesituation of misery and poverty. The Central Bank increased the basic interestrate again, by 13.25%, which only increases the banks' profits, attractsspeculative capital, and increases the population's indebtedness, even harmingfamily consumption. The BC itself assumes that rising interest rates will weakeneconomic activity. And prices continue to rise: the inflation accumulated in thelast 12 months is close to 12%, according to the IPCA, calculated by the IBGE.Meanwhile, conflicts over fuel prices continue, with pressure from Petrobrasshareholders to constantly increase prices, following international values, andthe facade opposition of the Bolsonaro-Military government and alliedparliamentarians. In this context enters the Petrobras privatization project,which may just be a bravado, but has strong interests of big internationalcapital to multiply its profits from oil exploration in the country.What is practically certain is the privatization of Eletrobras, the largestcompany in the electricity sector in Latin America, which represents a risk tothe country's energy sovereignty, and goes against what other large energyproducers do, which maintain control of most of the capacity of its hydroelectricplants.The electoral farceBolsonaro and the military once again escalated the speech against the STF andthe electoral process, a strategy that had been prepared for some time. It isclear that this is a farce to justify a possible defeat in the elections, and atthe same time incite the most radical layers of its supporters, mainly the armedgroups registered as Collectors, Shooters and Hunters (CACs) and military policein the states, in a national version of the US Capitol attack. The preparationsfor this type of action are so wide open that even the mainstream media speakopenly about it. In this case, it is worth paying special attention to September7, a date adopted a few years ago by the extreme right for ultranationalistdemonstrations, and which marks the day after the anniversary of the attack onBolsonaro, in 2018. In 2021 there has already been a kind of dress rehearsal, andthe question is to what extent Bolsonaro can mobilize his base for more violentaction, and whether or not there is a chain of command that can reach theultimate consequences. This highlights the military coup role that marked theentire history of Brazil's formation, serving as support for every reactionaryproject for the country. As well as the lack of preparation of the popularmovement to react accordingly, limiting itself to betting on the electoral pathand on State institutions. serving as support for every reactionary project forthe country. As well as the lack of preparation of the popular movement to reactaccordingly, limiting itself to betting on the electoral path and on Stateinstitutions. serving as support for every reactionary project for the country.As well as the lack of preparation of the popular movement to react accordingly,limiting itself to betting on the electoral path and on State institutions.Concretely, Bolsonaro and the military do not seem to have support for a coupadventure. They don't have support from the US and the mainstream media, andabout 50% of the population evaluates the government negatively. In addition,they have the opposition of STF ministers, who, despite the excess of tolerance,have been taking some measures to contain the most extremist sectors, for examplewith the arrest of the federal deputy for Rio de Janeiro, Daniel Silveira, andthe impeachment of the state deputy do Paraná, Fernando Francischini, forspreading fake news. At this point, the STF acts as a guarantor of a pact betweenthose on top, trying to shield the far-right coup attacks.While Bolsonaro and milicos make noise, Congress passes the herd. The secretbudget schemes, with overpricing of works and unnecessary purchase of tractors,suspicious amendments for municipalities of allied mayors, in addition to theturbocharged electoral fund itself, fill the pockets of Centrão parliamentarians.Reactionary proposals are also passing through the Chamber, such as homeeducation, an old agenda of evangelicals, in addition to the project that allowsthe attachment of single property of families with debts, a claim by bankers. Theproposal on charging tuition fees in public universities also returned to thediscussion, which was shelved after the reactions, but the threat always hangs inthe air. The president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), closer to Bolsonaro,and the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), closer to the old right,The Police State of Adjustment hardens as the social crisis increases. In SãoPaulo, brutal police action in the Cracolândia region, in May, opens theelectoral campaign, with a governor trying to make himself known among the mostreactionary public. In Rio de Janeiro, with an equally unknown governor oncampaign, the police incursion into Vila Cruzeiro involved PM, PF and PRF andleft more than 20 dead, a true massacre disguised as a war on drugs. Bolsonaro'sPRF was also involved in another tragedy, with the murder of Genivaldo de Jesusdos Santos, in Umbaúba, Sergipe, in revolting circumstances: when approached fornot wearing a helmet, Genivaldo, who had schizophrenia, was locked in the van andkilled under torture. , using pepper spray in the vehicle.Regarding the elections, the Lula-Alckmin ticket emerges with great possibilitiesof victory, with the social crisis that follows and the high rejection of theBolsonaro government and the military. The scenario of polarization betweenLula-Alckmin and Bolsonaro-Militaries forces the electorate to define a votebetween the two candidacies early, and the election can be defined already in thefirst round. In the legislature, the situation that is pointed out is thatCentrão continues to give the cards, since it enjoys the electoral fund and themaintenance of corrals in various regions of the country. And the judiciary canreturn to the old normality, trying to block the extreme right in the name ofharmony among those above.culture and ideologyA recent survey by Datafolha pointed out that practically half (49%) of thepopulation in the country identifies with the left, while the right has apreference of 34%, about a third. According to the institute, it is the highestpro-left result since the beginning of the survey, in 2013. The survey resultsshow that 17% are left, 32% center-left, 17% center, 24% center-right. and 9% onthe right. Despite questions about the methodology, and the fact that what isleft for liberals does not mean the same for us, the numbers show a certainadvance in critical awareness of right and extreme right agendas, and a greateropenness to ideas related to the left, which could be an opportunity for anupsurge of struggles in the next period. It is also interesting to note that,according to the research,We see a cultural-ideological dispute related to issues of protection of theAmazon and the elections, with several criticisms of the Bolsonaro government andthe military. This even had international support, such as through Hollywoodactors Mark Ruffalo and Leonardo DiCaprio. Brazilian artists have also engagedagainst attacks on the Amazon and indigenous peoples, and in campaigns forteenagers to take away their voter registration cards. But this mobilization wasnot as spontaneous as it appears to be, and was supported by NGOs with foreignfunding. Among them are the NGO Nossas, which has as supporters institutions suchas the Open Society, of billionaire George Soros, Skoll Foundation, of thebillionaire founder of eBay, and the OAK Foundation, chaired by Douglas Griffith,a career diplomat for the US government; and GirlUp, of American origin, createdby the UN Foundation and whose funders include Disney, Google and the MillenniumChallenge Corporation, an agency linked to the US Congress. Therefore,institutions with imperialist interests are strongly influencing public debate inBrazil.Another issue that gained prominence was the supposedly overpriced contracts ofcountry singers with small town town halls. The theme gained social media for afew weeks, and opened up the relationship between these musicians withagribusiness and political corruption.In Education, the attacks by the Bolsonaro government and the military follow. InMay, it was announced the cut of almost 15% of the MEC budget, in about R$ 3.2billion, affecting universities, university hospitals and Inep, which organizesthe Enem. The argument was compliance with the Spending Ceiling. After reactions,the cut was halved. In addition, right-wing federal deputies rescued PEC 206/19,which institutes tuition fees at public universities. The project was droppedfrom the agenda, but it is still a threat that could return. The authorship ofthe PEC makes it clear who is behind the proposal: the proposer is GeneralPeternelli, a career officer trained at Aman, and Kim Kataguiri, from the MBL, aliberal think-tank, with funding from the Atlas Network. The initiative to chargetuition at public universities is contained in the document "Project for theNation - Brazil in 2035", prepared by foundations linked to the military, such asthe General Villas-Boas Institute, and coordinated by Gen. Rocha Paiva, from theNGO of the dictatorship torturer Carlos Alberto Brilhante Ustra. The World Bankalso endorses the measure, as stated in a 2017 document commissioned by thegovernment of Michel Temer. Therefore, the attack on Education is directly linkedto the interests of large international capital and military castes,uncomfortable with the presence of the popular classes in higher education andresearch, which in a way can build popular sovereignty over knowledge. RochaPaiva, from the NGO of the dictatorship torturer Carlos Alberto Brilhante Ustra.The World Bank also endorses the measure, as stated in a 2017 documentcommissioned by the government of Michel Temer. Therefore, the attack onEducation is directly linked to the interests of large international capital andmilitary castes, uncomfortable with the presence of the popular classes in highereducation and research, which in a way can build popular sovereignty overknowledge. Rocha Paiva, from the NGO of the dictatorship torturer Carlos AlbertoBrilhante Ustra. The World Bank also endorses the measure, as stated in a 2017document commissioned by the government of Michel Temer. Therefore, the attack onEducation is directly linked to the interests of large international capital andmilitary castes, uncomfortable with the presence of the popular classes in highereducation and research, which in a way can build popular sovereignty over knowledge.The deepening of dominationThe concentration of wealth is advancing across the world, amid the Covid-19pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Oxfam's report points out that the billionairesclub has gained 573 new members since 2020, while most of the world's populationhas become impoverished. The wealth of the world's 2,668 billionaires currentlycorresponds to 14% of the world's GDP. Among those who profited the most aretycoons in the food, oil and gas, pharmaceutical and technology industries. InBrazil, the number of billionaires in dollars has risen from 42 to 62 since thebeginning of the pandemic, according to the Forbes list. They are bankers andbarons from agribusiness and livestock, from the technology, beverage and healthsectors who strongly lobby for privatization and other neoliberal agendas. Even areformist demand such as taxation of the great fortunes is strongly resisted,The military, on the other hand, has increasingly shown itself to be a cohesiveand unified force in the government and in the structure of the State. Themilitias command important ministries and carry out many of the government'spolicies. According to IPEA research, between 2013 and 2021 the presence ofmilitary personnel in commissioned positions and functions of the federalgovernment increased by almost 60%. In civilian roles alone, the militarypresence rose by almost 200%, a true militarization of the state. The presencegrew mainly in the higher echelon positions, that is, in command positions andwith higher salaries, in sectors such as Economy, Health, Education andEnvironment. The Army was the source force from which most of the military forcivilian positions emerged, and senior officers are the most representativegroup. This growing presence in the state allowed foundations linked to retiredmilitary to prepare the document "Project for the Nation - Brazil in 2035", amilitary version of the PMDB's "Bridge to the future", which places the"globalist movement" as the main threat to the country, at the same time itbrings neoliberal proposals such as the exploitation of the Amazon and indigenouslands, the collection of tuition fees in public universities and the end of freeSUS. The document highlights the formation of a reactionary Military Party,linked to the theories of the international extreme right and ultraliberal bias.We cannot underestimate the long-term capacity for articulation and themilitary's coup impetus. that puts the "globalist movement" as the main threat tothe country, at the same time that it brings neoliberal proposals such as theexploitation of the Amazon and indigenous lands, the charging of tuition inpublic universities and the end of free SUS. The document highlights theformation of a reactionary Military Party, linked to the theories of theinternational extreme right and ultraliberal bias. We cannot underestimate thelong-term capacity for articulation and the military's coup impetus. that putsthe "globalist movement" as the main threat to the country, at the same time thatit brings neoliberal proposals such as the exploitation of the Amazon andindigenous lands, the charging of tuition in public universities and the end offree SUS. The document highlights the formation of a reactionary Military Party,linked to the theories of the international extreme right and ultraliberal bias.We cannot underestimate the long-term capacity for articulation and themilitary's coup impetus.The crisis befalls the working classIn 2021, the average income of people with some income was R$2,265 per month, thelowest value calculated by the IBGE in a decade. About 11 million people areunemployed in the country, a number that has been falling in recent months, butabout 40% of employed workers are in the informal sector, without the set ofrights guaranteed to those who have a formal contract. Women, especially blackwomen, were hard hit: according to Dieese, between 2019 and 2021, the femaleworkforce was reduced by 1.1 million, of which 925,000 were black.The working class coexists with high prices: the basic food basket calculated byDieese was R$ 777.93 in the state of São Paulo in May, 20% more expensive than ayear ago. 77% of families are in debt, according to the National Confederation ofCommerce.Hunger has returned to the daily lives of millions of families. According to theBrazilian Research Network on Food and Nutrition Sovereignty and Security, 33million people do not have enough to eat daily, 14 million people more than in2020. According to the researchers, the country has regressed to the levels ofhunger in 1990s. The survey also points out that 125 million people live withsome degree of food insecurity, almost 60% of the country's population.All this worsening of the working class' living conditions was worsened byneoliberal policies from 2016 onwards, such as the Spending Ceiling, the LaborReform, the Outsourcing Law, the Pension Reform and Petrobras' price policy,which with the pandemic and the impacts of the war in Ukraine made the lives ofour people even more dramatic.The most organized sectors of workers have faced difficulties in resisting theattacks. High inflation is a barrier to collective bargaining. According toDieese, in the first quarter of the year about 40% of collective agreements andconventions had readjustment below inflation, that is, the categories lostpurchasing power. The average value of the salary floors was R$ 1,387.82, farbelow enough to guarantee the survival of a family.But the working class continues to struggle: INSS workers went on a long strike,which lasted 52 days, and Furnas workers also paralyzed at the beginning of theyear. Application deliverers have been carrying out days of stoppages, in asector that does not have a consolidated union tradition. This year there weremore localized strikes, such as by workers from Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional,by subway workers at CBTU in Belo Horizonte, by street sweepers at Comlurb in Riode Janeiro, by drivers and collectors of transport collective in São Paulo, amongothers. However, there is no organized articulation of unions and centrals forunified strikes, partly due to the union structure itself, which establishesdifferent negotiation base dates for each category, but mainly due to theweakening of union entities and the lack of political will to establish a unifiedcalendar of struggles in an election year. Thus, the working class is losingpurchasing power and is also unable to face the attacks of governments and bigcapital.The same happens with the student movement, which has been suffering severalattacks, such as the threat of charging in public universities and cuts inEducation. Student organizations, especially UNE, organized in early June a dayof demonstrations, but very limited, restricted to the largest capitals and whichdid not involve other sectors. The intention seems to be to keep the fights at alow level so that they don't get in the way of the Lula-Alckmin election.Other popular movements go through a similar reflux, with the exception of thehousing movements, which have been organizing various urban occupations. Theimpacts of the pandemic, with layoffs, high inflation and evictions forced manyfamilies to join these movements, which have carried out several occupations ofbuildings and land in recent months. The occupations opened up the power of bigcapital, with evictions being carried out even with a contrary decision by theSTF, which became more dramatic in the coldest period of the year.Women keep up the resistanceWomen returned to the streets this March 8, after two years of a pandemic. Thedate is an important milestone in the unity for the agendas of women from theoppressed classes, uniting all the diversity of social movements. This year, animportant event was the mobilization for the impeachment of São Paulo statedeputy Arthur do Val, Mamãe Falei, from MBL, after making misogynistic speechesagainst Ukrainian women. Already without any political support, the deputy hadhis mandate revoked in May. However, many mobilizations adopt the perspectivethat it is enough for women to occupy more positions in the State and Capital tochange this situation, as if violence were not structural and inherent to the system.Women continue to suffer from patriarchal violence. According to the BrazilianPublic Security Forum, between March 2020 and December 2021, 2,451 femicides andmore than 100,000 cases of rape of women and girls were recorded. The numbers areunderreported, and it is believed that many records were not made in the mostrestrictive period of the pandemic, but they are close to the 2019 average, whichshows that sexist and patriarchal violence is a constant in the country.In addition, the Bolsonaro government and the military continue to threaten toattack women's rights. A booklet published by the Ministry of Health in June saidthat there is no legal abortion in Brazil, and that all abortion is a crime, alie, since the legislation allows abortion in situations of rape, risk to thewoman's health and fetal anencephaly. The booklet also says that abortionprovides for police investigation, a way to intimidate women who seek healthservices to terminate a pregnancy in permitted situations. In a context in whichArgentine and Colombian women have won the expanded right to legal abortion, andthe right is threatened by the US Supreme Court, the criminalization of abortionis an important agenda for the most conservative sectors of Brazil, even more soin an election year.Racism multipliesCases of racism are multiplying in the country. Episodes of racial slurs arereproduced on the streets, in football stadiums and even in city councils andstate assemblies. In addition, racially motivated murder cases have been makingheadlines, such as the death of Congolese Moïse Kabagambe in Rio de Janeiro, themurder of Genivaldo in Sergipe and other crimes committed by police in blackmajority communities, in addition to mass incarceration. of young black people.The black movement has been mobilized to denounce and demand justice andreparation, and the emblematic cases have raised the importance of the agenda insociety, but it also faces competition with liberal propaganda that debatesstructural racism without discussing the true structures that perpetuate racism., strongly linked to the domination of Capital,sexual diversityThis year the IBGE released the first survey that estimates the sexualorientation of Brazilians. According to the institute, 2.9 million people, about2% of the population, declare themselves to be lesbian, gay or bisexual, based ondata collected in 2019 by the National Health Survey. Homosexuals wouldcorrespond to 1.8 million people, which includes men and women, and bisexualswould total 1.1 million. Data are underreported, due to stigma - 2.3% ofrespondents did not answer the question - and the transgender issue was notincluded in the survey. A Datafolha survey showed different numbers: 4% of thepeople interviewed identified themselves as homosexuals, 4% bisexuals, 4% did notrespond, and 3% gave other definitions. The surveys are criticized by movementslinked to the theme, but they help to give an idea of the size of this audience,Violence against LGBTQIA+ people in Brazil is latent, but still lacks moreconcrete data. The most consolidated numbers are raised by the movementsthemselves, based on cases found in the news and on social networks. According tothe Observatory of LGBTI+ Deaths and Violence in Brazil, in 2021 there were 316violent deaths, an increase of 33% over the previous year. Gays are 46% ofvictims, followed by transvestites and transgender women, who correspond to 45%.The document denounces that the State is not only silent in the violence, butalso a direct agent, through far-right politicians, paramilitaries and neo-Nazigroups that gained strength with the election of Bolsonaro, and fundamentalistreligious leaders who make up the support base. of the president.Climate changesThe Brazilian population has been suffering from the environmental catastrophe.Since the beginning of the year, heavy rains have caused death and destruction inthe states of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Bahia and Pernambuco. Theeffects of climate change already have a concrete impact on the reality of theoppressed classes, being fatal in communities where poor and black workers livein a more precarious way, which exposes environmental racism. Added to this isthe advance of mining, prospecting and other activities on indigenous, quilombolaand riverine lands, which gained even more support under the Bolsonarogovernment, but which have always represented a threat to human and non-humanlives. In addition to the responsibilities of governments in the lack of housingand environmental preservation policies,Social and political violenceThe situation of increasing poverty and the precariousness of life as a wholeforms a powder keg that is expressed in different ways in the oppressed classes.The use of violence in a dispersed way is an example of this, whether in responseto injustices, such as problems with public transport, or even more freely. Inthis regard, it is worth looking carefully at the violence of football fansagainst athletes and their clubs, in situations that are not even a crisis inthese clubs, but end up catalyzing the anger of brutalized workers in their dailylives. It is curious that organized football fans were the sector that startedthe clashes with the far right in 2020, which shows that it is an open field forthis combative spirit. There is a general climate of social dissatisfaction anddifficulties in giving vent to it,The election period can also be a time of political violence. Taking into accountthat Marielle and Anderson were murdered in 2018, in the midst of a militaryintervention and in a year of elections for the presidency and state governments,we cannot rule out the possibility of politically motivated attacks. The brutalmurder of Dom and Bruno in the Amazon, and the threats that left-wing politicianshave been receiving, show that we cannot underestimate the ability of the mostreactionary sectors to resort to violence in this period.Movements to the right and to the leftOn the right, as the elections arrive, the cultural-ideological crusade on thepart of the most reactionary sectors grows, with the reinforcement of customsguidelines, which, in addition to everything else, serve as a smokescreen overthe concrete problems that the oppressed classes in the country suffer, such asthe economic issue and state violence. Disinformation and fake news are theinstruments of these factions to continue with their project, represented mainlyin Bolsonaro's and military's reelection campaign.On the other hand, the more traditional political right continues to struggle tobecome viable as an electoral alternative to the presidency. The project of a"third way" unified among the traditional parties of the Brazilian oligarchieshas as its main difficulty the lack of people. Whoever continues to win is themost physiological right in the National Congress, which has privileged access tothe public budget, and guarantees the support of the government of turn.This emptying of a third-way candidacy is also due to the fact that a sector isrepresented on the Lula-Alckmin ticket, which makes numerous concessions to thepolitical center, a debased project, or almost non-existent, and spuriousalliances with enemies of the oppressed classes, including in the sewing ofcandidacies in the states.The polarization between Bolsonaro-Militaries and Lula-Alckmin also impacted animportant sector that was located to the left of PTismo. It seems to mark thefinal capitulation of the PSOL, with almost uncritical support for Lula and thede-characterization of the party founded as a left-wing opposition to the PT -the party federation with Rede is another strong sign of thisde-characterization. The political-electoral scenario has caused ruptures andreorganizations in leftist currents, such as sectors of the PSOL itself, inaddition to the PCdoB, Popular Consultation (which underwent a split), among others.Further to the left, Trotskyist parties organized in the Socialist Pole, such asthe PSTU, and with a Stalinist matrix such as the UP/PCR and PCB, presentthemselves with a more critical discourse on the class conciliation representedby Lula-Alckmin, but still have little social force. to mobilize the oppressedclasses as a whole for greater combativeness.Autonomism has fostered localized struggles, such as with app workers,demonstrations in support of indigenous peoples, which keeps a flame lit, butalso fails to expand into a mass movement.Anarchists are also part of this broth, with localized and still dispersedstruggles. Our current still needs to present itself as a reference for militancyin the various sectors, fomenting struggles and advancing in the organization andcombativeness of the oppressed classes.Scenarios for the next periodAs we said, there is a serious social crisis that could give rise to a newprocess of struggle at any moment. However, taking into account the presidentialelections, we can think of three scenarios for the next period, from the mostlikely to the least:Victory, by a wide difference, of the Lula-Alckmin ticket overBolsonaro-Militaries: the defenders of the fraud argument would be more isolatedand the questioning about the elections would be weakened, with some preventiveactions by the STF. Popular movement would be appeased, with conflicts betweeninstitutions reduced. Lula-Alckmin government is formed with a very low-levelproject, with a renegotiation of classes and between bourgeois institutions, butwithout solving the deep social crisis in the face of the internal and externaleconomic scenario, without social advances, which opens the way for populardissatisfaction in the mid-term.Victory by little difference between the Lula-Alckmin ticket: questions aboutpossible fraud, with massive fake news shootings in a more conflicted election.Risk of some violent actions in the streets and attacks close to voting days.Here there is a doubt if Bolsonaro and the military would have the strength forsomething similar to the attack on the Capitol, in the US, (if not worse), ifbourgeois institutions would contain this type of action. Without support fromthe US and the mainstream media, a coup attempt is likely to fail. Scenario ofbackward organized popular movements, with little ability to respond to a coupattempt, and excessive trust in bourgeois institutions.Bolsonaro-Military victory at the polls, by a narrow margin: Less likelyhypothesis, and also more unpredictable. Institutionality must remain inconflicts, but it will give in more to reactionary measures, with thestrengthening of the extreme right in power, with the feasibility of a project ofattacks on popular movements and the most oppressed groups in society, and adeeper relationship with the State. with the crime. Popular dissatisfactionremains high, with poverty and misery. Movements would need to respond quickly,but the attachment to institutionality and the violence of the State itself canmake this difficult, which can give rise to an even more authoritarian PoliceState of Adjustment, and the suffocation of contestation movements.It is important to pay attention to upcoming events to project scenarios of apossible coup and institutional rupture - the military document establishing aproject of power until 2035 makes this intention evident. Elements of eachscenario may be present in others, and new elements may emerge in this nextperiod, in a context of high social dissatisfaction, violence and conflictsbetween state institutions and imperialist powers.Our performanceAs anarchists, for this period we believe it is important to continue promotingdirect action where possible, since in this second semester the great social andunion movements have no interest in the intensification of conflicts, and preferto keep the struggles lukewarm so as not to disrupt the election. We mustcontinue denouncing and fighting policies of adjustment and attacks on theoppressed classes, encouraging combativeness wherever there is an opportunity,allying ourselves with the sectors that continue with a willingness to fight. Inthis it is important to build the Campaign to Fight Hunger, as a concretemobilization strategy with the oppressed classes.In addition, we must follow alerts to scenarios of social explosion due toconcrete issues of our people, or to any coup attempt, which more than a threatto institutionality, represents a serious threat to popular movements and themost combative militancy, therefore, it must count on a decisive response fromthe ensemble of popular movements. However, if the scenario of fights remains ata low temperature, it is up to us to understand the moment of reflux and sharpenour tools to strengthen ourselves for the next period.STRONG PEOPLE AGAINST THE SYSTEM OF HUNGER AND DEATH!FIGHT, CREATE, POPULAR POWER!Brazilian Anarchist CoordinationJune 2022https://cabanarquista.org/2022/06/30/analise-conjuntura-brasil-junho-2022_________________________________________A - I N F O S N E W S S E R V I C EBy, For, and About AnarchistsSend news reports to A-infos-en mailing listA-infos-en@ainfos.ca
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