WORLD WORLDWIDE RUSSIA News Journal Update - (en) Russia, avtonom: Who's Grandpa Now: Trends in Order and Chaos Episode 105 (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

 Ukrainian offensive? ---- One of the topics discussed in the pro-government

telegram channels is the prospects for a Ukrainian offensive. In the 15th month
of the war, the Russian Federation does not control a single regional center of
Ukraine - except for the Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk that were squeezed out nine
years ago. And now we are not talking about taking Lvov or Kyiv, but at least
holding, for example, a land corridor from the Rostov region to the Crimea. ----
There is no massive second wave of mobilization - apparently, both because the
authorities are afraid of the discontent of the Russians, and because the Russian
army does not have normal logistical opportunities to engage in some kind of
reasonable activity at the front for hundreds of thousands more people.

The Ukrainian military launched an unprecedented sabotage operation on the
territory of the Russian Federation. The number of attacks is impressive: for
example, when the last episode of the podcast was being recorded, there was an
attempt on the life of Zakhar Prilepin, who is now not just a well-known writer,
commander of the DPR armed formations, but also a State Duma deputy.

Sometimes Ukrainian military intelligence, the GUR, acts together with Russians
dissatisfied with Putin, sometimes not. In some cases, anti-Putin partisans work
themselves: of course, there is little public information about all this. In any
case, the Russian GRU could not organize anything like this in Ukraine during the
15 months of the war.

Let's return to the Ukrainian offensive. There is information about the pressure
of the Ukrainian military on almost all hundreds of kilometers of the front, but
it is too early to say that the positions of the Russian troops have been swept
away. Although who knows how the situation will change while we are mixing the
release.

The Prigogine Phenomenon
The history of almost all illegal armed formations suggests that they arise at a
time when the official state gives way. And PMC "Wagner" - which exists generally
outside the laws of the Russian Federation - is a typical example of this.

A bunch of thugs, which has at its disposal not just machetes or machine guns,
but also planes, tanks, drones and even space reconnaissance - practically
competes with the legitimate armed forces of the Russian Federation.

Yevgeny Prigozhin is increasingly being promoted as a public politician who has
an opinion on all issues, from the nuances of the criminal code to the interests
of the Russian Federation in Africa. At the same time, he scolds official state
structures, from the Ministry of Defense to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, more
and more harshly.

In the next video about the problems with the supply of shells to PMC "Wagner" in
Bakhmut, Prigozhin spoke about a certain "grandfather, a complete asshole" who
ruins the future of Russia. Many thought that Prigozhin had already jumped on
Putin: all the more so a week earlier, Prigozhin threatened that his militants
would withdraw from the front and go to the rear camps, waiting in the wings.
Which will come, according to Prigozhin, soon.

But Prigozhin jumped off the topic: he explained in his Telegram channel that by
"grandfather" he meant only the head of the General Staff, Gerasimov. Everyone
has already got used to the fact that Prigozhin is throwing obscenities at the
head of the General Staff and Minister of Defense Shoigu.

Putin does not scold Prigozhin, the son of Putin's influential press secretary
Dmitry Peskov, according to him, also went to war as part of Wagner. That is,
what is happening in the Kremlin elite is not clear. But it is clearly restless
there, someone is preparing to quarter someone at the Execution Ground.

The Kremlin is not isolated
May 9 is one of the main "fasten" holidays in the Russian Federation. This year,
the leaders of Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and
Tajikistan watched the parade on Red Square along with Putin.

Of course, in past years, the May parade was attended by up to fifty leaders of
the more powerful powers, but this year the Kremlin managed to invite half the
heads of the countries of the former USSR to visit. This is serious in the
context of the fact that Russia is now perceived as an aggressor trying to revive
the Soviet Union by force.

A successful foreign policy move by the Kremlin is the unilateral lifting of the
ban on direct flights to Georgia. In this small country, fearing a Russian
attack, it caused panic and controversy. Including because many Georgians do
business with Russia, and direct flights would be convenient both for them and
for the tourist flow to Tbilisi and Batumi.

Within the framework of BRICS - the union of South Africa, China, Brazil, India
and Russia - they talk about the possibility of creating a common currency.
Despite the sanctions, Russia retains many ties with businesses from all over the
world, including from Europe and America. Gradually, but Russia is being returned
to international sports competitions. Unfortunately, it can be predicted that if
the regime does not fall by the end of 2023, Russia under the rule of Putin or
some of his successors, albeit powerfully beaten by the Ukrainians, will more or
less be returned to the world community in some roles.

For many listeners of "Trends of Order and Chaos", this will mean it is still
unclear how many years in relocation or in the semi-underground in the Russian
Federation with the prospect of sitting down at any moment.

And here I would like to remind you once again: any social changes are the sum of
the efforts of all people. And if we don't want decades of strong obscurantist
corrupt dictatorship, we must work to change the situation. Whether you are
inside Russia or outside - your every action is important and leads to a shift in
the balance in the direction of freedom or in the direction opposite to it. Think
globally, act locally.

Well, that's all for today! We remind you that in "Trends of Order and Chaos" the
participants of "Autonomous Action" and other authors give anarchist assessments
of current events. Listen to us on YouTube, SoundCloud and other platforms, visit
our website avtonom.org, subscribe to our e-mail newsletter!

Issue prepared by Leaves

https://avtonom.org/news/kto-seychas-dedushka-trendy-poryadka-i-haosa-epizod-105kto-seychas-dedushka-trendy-poryadka-i
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