WORLD WORLDWIDE BULGARIA News Journal Update - (en) Bulgaria, AG: Russia - the weakest link of the world capitalist system (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

 [Written a few days before the "rebellion" of Prigozhin and PMC Wagner]---- If

not regularities, there are recurring analogies in history. ---- Under-Secretary
of State Nelmut Sonnenfeld, in charge of US Eastern Policy, in a secret report to
US diplomacy in 1975, warned the USSR that it was entering its worst crisis since
its creation in 1922 and proposed a "mutually beneficial plan" for the salvation
of the empire: externally, he advised transforming it into something similar to
the British "dormitory of nations", and internally creating a "mixed economy":
state, private and workers' self-government, as in Tito's Yugoslavia.
If Moscow had listened to his advice, perhaps even today the reformed empire
would be led by the Communist Party. But deluding itself with its own
power/weakness, the clay-footed giant's gerontocracy accepted the ostensibly
Helsinki "basket" (1975) guaranteeing the "free movement of goods, people and
ideas," rejected the US offer and entered in 1979. in the Afghan trap laid by
them. The war to conquer it met the life and death resistance of the mujahideen
(armed Islamist groups that declared jihad - a holy war against the invaders). It
lasted nearly ten years and ended with the disintegration, defeat and retreat of
the "invincible" army. Along with other domestic and international causes, which
I will not dwell on here, the empire imploded and disintegrated, as the 14,,

Fifteen years after the collapse of the empire, Zbigniew Brzezinski, President
Carter's national security adviser, said that Russia's imperial aspirations did
not die with the USSR, and that a sign of the beginning of the empire's
resurrection would be the Kremlin's attempt to forcibly annex Ukraine into the
so-called RF. At the same time, Brzezinski believed that Russia's only chance to
survive and avoid being absorbed by China was to join the EU and NATO.

If this had happened, today Russia would be the most powerful member state of the
European Union, almost equal militarily with the United States. Instead,
possessed by the age-old myth of the world mission of the "Third Rome", Putin
repeated the Brezhnev mistake by annexing Crimea and invading Ukraine, conquering
and a little later, annexing Donetsk and Luhansk, which declared their
"independence" with his help "republics". (For the Bulgarian readers to visualize
and understand what happened in Ukraine, we would point them to a picture in
which Erdogan orders Dogan and his bashibozus to declare the "independence" of
the Deliormansky and Kardzhali sanjats, promising to make him the life-long valya
of the new vilayet... )

Russian historian Alexander Etkind, who left the "motherland" in the early 2000s,
says: "Putin and his clique could have remained in power for another decade, just
as the Habsburgs could have survived if they had not started the First World
War." But he decided to start this war, which marks the last step in the downfall
of the Russian Empire, an empire in decline that is on the verge of collapse."
Those like Etkind who left the sinking ship numbered in the hundreds of thousands.

After the second week of the start of Russia's war against Ukraine, I said that
it would be protracted and could last five years. At the same time, I made my
appeal to the anarchists of the belligerent countries, urging them to begin
propaganda, agitation and organizational work to transform the imperialist war
into a civil and the latter into a social revolution. Where are we today and what
happened before and in the past 16 months since Putin's war began (February 24,
2022)?

With its policy of expansion to the East and promises to join Ukraine to NATO,
the West threatened the soft underbelly of its disintegrating "Soviet" empire and
did everything necessary to arouse the fears of the Kremlin. On a much larger
scale, the Afghan strategy was repeated, with which the former USSR was drawn
into a hopeless and exhausting war against the US-armed mujahideen, which, as I
mentioned above, ended with the disintegration, withdrawal and defeat of the
"Soviet "almia, which led to the collapse of the "Empire of Evil". With the
current war comes the turn of the so-called Russian Federation.

Instead of the blitzkrieg expected by Putin and his "strategists", the war has
turned into a positional war that is slowly but surely draining the life force of
each of the warring parties. In line with the chosen strategy, the West,
primarily the United States, began supplying the armed forces of Ukraine "by the
hour" with arms and ammunition, allowing it to, if not defeat, counter the
significantly more powerful in military attitude aggressor. The result is
deplorable, but expected: systematically and meticulously, the cities and
villages of Ukraine are being destroyed to the ground. The damages already amount
to half a trillion dollars, against which the planned aid for the coming years
does not exceed 20% of them.

The human casualties on both sides have been steadily increasing, exceeding
200,000 soldiers for the aggressor, hardly less for the attacked, plus the
corpses of a significant portion of the civilian population (including children
and the elderly) and several million refugees, mainly in Europe, who in a few
years will be fully integrated into the countries that received them and will
hardly wish to return to their "homeland" after the end of the war.

The situation on the Russian side is no rosier, although for now the war is not
being fought on its territory. Sanctions imposed by the West are inflicting their
silent defeats on the economy, as evidenced by the tightening of belts... The
regular army is found to be insufficient or unfit for combat, therefore, in
addition to the additional call-up of reservists under the flags, the Putin
regime uses high-paid mercenaries from Chechnya and butchers from the private
army,, Wagner" and resorted to mobilizations and recruitment of soldiers among
the prisoners.

Since the ratio of Russia's GDP (gross domestic product) to the total of the US,
Europe and Japan, which have committed to military "aid", is 1:23, it is not
difficult to predict the outcome: if the West decides to allocate 5 % of its GDP
for the needs of the war, to maintain the "balance of power", devoting the same
trillions of dollars, the population of Russia must stop eating. After the
"requisite" number of years, the ongoing "military operation" will bring Russia
to the brink, if not into it.

What is Russia's domestic situation?
Putin's regime is based on police arbitrariness and the sale of oil and gas
abroad. The Kremlin used its economic power to establish a semi-feudal, colonial
system. The revenues from the export of oil and gas allowed the Kremlin and still
allow it to buy the obedience of "Putin's entourage", the mercenaries fighting
for him and the "elites" in the dozens of semi-colonial constituents of the
"federation" through the petrodollars. ". The latter traded their independence
and national development against these subsidies distributed thanks to oil money.
But the war upsets these balances between the center and the regions: money is
becoming scarcer, the majority of soldiers mobilized and killed on the front in
Ukraine come from the poorest regions of the country.

After increasing sanctions and the suspension of purchases of Russian oil and gas
from Europe, the Kremlin sought compensation in Asia. China, which wants lower
prices than world prices, is in no hurry to build oil pipelines and is
negotiating with Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, making it a rather uncertain
trading partner. The other big consumer is India, but the route of Russian oil
and gas by tankers passes through seas and oceans, the control of which belongs
to countries involved in the sanctions, which can at any moment close the routes...

Another, even more serious problem is demographic. Russia's population is
shrinking menacingly. While the famous chemist and father of the table of
elements Dmitri Mendeleev, who was also interested in demography, predicted at
the end of the 19th century that in 1950 the population of the Russian Empire
would reach 450 to 500 million inhabitants, today the human species in Russia is
more endangered than ever. Officially, there are just over 140 million
inhabitants. But the official data is more than doubtful. This should be
supplemented with the mass "voting with the feet" - engineers, scientists,
computer scientists, artists, businessmen and billionaires together with their
billions are leaving the country. Brzezinski said that the capitals exported from
Russia exceeded 500 billion dollars.

In the countryside, mafia autocracy, the church and chauvinist patriotism have
returned the majority of Russians intellectually, ideologically and morally to
the Middle Ages, where they live on the brink of misery. They identify with a
tribe surrounded by enemies, so they support the war in Ukraine in the name of
protecting the homeland and, for the more literate, Russian culture.
Unfortunately, Russia needs to experience another humiliation and military defeat
in Ukraine for these people to say to themselves: "Maybe we were wrong?" And to
become free and active citizens. Only the defeat of Putin's regime can awaken
them from their lethargy and return them to active public life.

But it should not be forgotten that after the collapse of the USSR, this criminal
regime was able to establish itself and strengthen only thanks to the Western
democracies. In the 1990s, Russians were open to a free and active public life.
Many had illusions about the Western way of life. They had no idea what it was,
but they were watching American movies and a standard of living far exceeding
their own. For them, the West was free elections, big American cars and
McDonald's. But the "great democracies" preferred to privilege dirty money from
Russia. Everyone knew that this was criminal money, but the profiteering and
greed of Western capitalists and rulers turned out to be much stronger than
democratic ideals and the "rule of law"... As a result, the Russians realized
that if you have a lot of money, there is no authority over you law and said to
themselves: "Ah, is this what democracy is!' Thus the criminal regime was able to
develop in Moscow, the corruption and continuity of the burdened old legacy of
arbitrariness and contempt for the personality of the "little man" was preserved
and flourished.

Given these facts, what are the possible scenarios after the end of the "empire"?
With military defeat, Putin will go, most likely with his feet first: either
someone will kill him, or he will kill himself, if he has the courage of the Nazi
Fuhrers. Sooner or later, Russia will be without Putin. In power circles, some
are already preparing for this. From his arrival in the Kremlin until today,
Putin has been something of a mafia godfather, ensuring balance between the
various rival clans fighting for power and wealth. Without him, the first
possible scenario is the most brutal: a clan war for the throne and an attempt by
the winner to preserve the legacy.

Among the contenders are those with actual armies, such as Yevgeny Prigozhin (the
head of the Wagnerites), Ramzan Kadyrov (the president of the Georgian mercenary
thugs) and Viktor Zolotov (the head of the national guard); or the likes of
Nikolay Patrushev, who oversees the security services.

In the "federal" republics, regional mafia groups will also vie for power to
impose their criminal order. The same is likely to happen throughout Russia: a
struggle between rival clans for power and control of the economy and trade.
"These guys hate each other," says one insider of the Kremlin backstage. "If one
clan wins, the others will have to submit to it or lose everything, including
their lives." "We can imagine the criminal battle for control over hydrocarbons,
goods, factories... - he adds - This will be a modern version of the "Time of
Troubles", between 1598 and 1613, marked the end of the Rurik dynasty (and Ivan
the Terrible ) and the rise of the Romanov dynasty, when the very existence of
the Russian state was threatened."

The members of the current "elite" can agree to dismiss the current No. 1, as did
the resigned Nicholas II entourage in February 1917, appointing one of their own
Prince Lviv as the first Prime Minister of a modern,, provisional government".
For them, the war in Ukraine is a catastrophe that made them poor due to the
military needs of the regime and cut them off from the "free world". The new team
will reach out to European leaders and make commitments by releasing iconic
political prisoners, such as Alexei Navalny, in exchange for lifting sanctions
and resuming business with the West. The character of the Putin regime will
remain intact behind the facade of a Potemkin democracy.

The "democratic" scenario has another option: - with the decisive role and with
the money of the West, after the collapse of the Putin regime, to bring in
Russian emigrants of various calibers from Khodorkovsky to famous writers and
intellectuals who "chose freedom" and who are now striving in various
initiatives, such as the "Congress of People's Deputies", which was created by
the "Freedom of Russia" legion.

Western bankers and general staffs are unlikely to untie their purses and secure
the "sealed wagon", because emigration is multilingual: in it, except for western
democrats, for whom the whole of Russian history is nothing but a bloody cesspool
from which the country must to be removed in order to end up in the European
liberal social order, there are also nationalists like Navalny or reformers who
want a peaceful transition with preservation of "social peace". This motley crowd
is unlikely to be able to unite to create a critical mass of citizens who know
how market democracy works. In addition, these gentlemen with their peaceful
protests have no chance against the violence and repression of the candidates who
have private armies, "to raise the power rolling on the streets of Moscow". So
if, in spite of everything,

The collapse of the "Russian Federation" will lead to other huge problems, both
domestic and international. The most pressing problem will be that of the nuclear
arsenal. In the event of a collapse, several regions would inherit nuclear
weapons. In 1991, Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons in exchange for
security guarantees from countries such as France, Russia, the United Kingdom,
and the United States. The Americans helped dismantle the missiles. But such a
situation is unlikely to happen again with these weapons, after the lessons of
the past. Candidates to lay their hands on them will be numerous, making them a
constant living room and a minute danger to the world.

In addition to the nuclear one, the disintegration of the Russian "Federation"
portends other, perhaps even more serious, problems. It turned out to be a failed
project, and its "decolonization" may be followed by the carve-up of 34
independent countries, which will add numerous political consequences, as a
result of which border disputes and wars may become inevitable.

In the post-Putin era, secession of Chechnya and the other North Caucasian
republics seems inevitable. After them will come the turn of Tatarstan, Bashkiria
and Sakha, which is the official name of Yakutia. Located in the northeastern
part of Siberia, it is the largest region within the Russian Federation. It is
part of the Far Eastern Federal District and Economic Region. Its area is
3,083,523 km 2  (1st place by area in the Russian Federation with 18.01% of its
territory). Its population on January 1, 2017 is 962,835 people, of which 60% are
local residents. The republic ranks 56th in the Russian Federation in terms of
population, with a density of 0.3 people per square kilometer.

China is interested in the disintegration of Russia
Far Eastern Siberia borders China, which is very interested in this region. Along
the long border of more than 3,000 kilometers, the difference in population
density between the southern part of Eastern Siberia and the northern part of
China is 1 in 100: for every inhabitant on the Russian side there are 100 Chinese.

Informal colonization is already underway: the Chinese are buying and cultivating
a lot of land, cutting wood - legally and illegally... Big Siberian cities, even
those far from the border, like Krasnoyarsk, are full of Chinese shops and
restaurants. Also, little is said about what is happening in the Siberian
countryside, but the immigration of Chinese peasants there is very important.

Russia is forced to accept this situation. In a peaceful scenario, this
unofficial colonization could gradually lead to the obliteration of the border.
But there are other options. Several areas of Eastern Siberia once belonged to
China and were annexed by the Russian Empire after the Second Opium War
(1856-1860). The Chinese call this period the "Century of Humiliation." Since
then, they have never recovered this region, which they symbolically called Outer
Manchuria. By invading Ukraine, Putin set a precedent: China could ask for and
win the "referendum" by saying, "We're not occupying these lands, we're taking
them back."

Siberia already de facto belongs to China. Millions of hectares were leased to
Chinese companies for ninety-nine years. Entire parts of a city like Irkutsk on
Lake Baikal were conquered by the Chinese. In Siberian schools, children learn
Chinese. Because of the one-child policy, there are many more men than women in
China. Siberia is an outlet for this male excess.

In Putin's war, China is interested in the victory of Ukraine and the collapse of
the empire. When its disintegration begins, will anyone be able to stop it from
seizing all of Siberia to the Urals. The consequences of which we will not
consider here in detail.

Will the spring of nations come?
Today's Putin regime is neither Stalinist nor Hitlerian, it is Bonapartist, as
Napoleon III's was in France from 1849 to 1870 with its plebiscites, controlled
media, omnipresent police and a leader claiming direct contact with the people.
The Bonapartist regime was beautifully described by Karl Marx in his pamphlet:
"The 18th Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte". For Napoleon III or "Badenge", imperial
appetites ended with his Prussian adventure, military defeat and downfall. The
Franco-Prussian War ended with the defeat of the Second Empire. It was followed
by the administration of the Provisional Government "of National Defence",
against which Parisians revolted and on March 18, 1871, proclaimed the Commune.
She lasted only 72 days, when, with the help of Bismarck, the Versailles bandits,
led by Thiers, drowned her in blood and regained the lost paradise. It started
with that,,

150 years later, the Russo-Ukrainian war may end up like the Franco-Prussian one.
Such an end would outline another, last but not least, scenario: Putin and
Putinism would have the fate of the Second Empire of Napoleon III and his
Bonapartist regime: instead of Great Britain, Putin could end his days in a
gilded exile in the Arab emirates, if he is not handed over by "his" to the court
in The Hague. But these are minor details. It is more important whether the
Russian people will fraternize with the defeated army, whether they will arm
themselves and start the Federation of Communes, as happened in March 1871 in
France, or whether they will continue the unfinished work of the third Russian
revolution, which began with The Kronstadt Commune before March 1921? (The third
- anarchist revolution after the February and October revolutions.)

Obviously, important historical events await us. Among them: a much larger crisis
than the one that led to the collapse of the so-called USSR, creating an
unprecedented revolutionary situation and perhaps great moments in human history.
Everything depends on the revolutionary potential of the Russian people, on their
ability to create in the midst of events a critical mass of fighters who know
what needs to be done and who can organize the element and spontaneity of the
masses to do it.

Of course, this is a task with an extremely difficult solution. Tomorrow, the
"free world" will not set out to turn every popular uprising in residual Russia
into a new Iraqi slaughterhouse, but this may turn out to be its Pyrrhic victory,
due to the availability of ... nuclear weapons.

Georgi Konstantinov

https://www.anarchy.bg
_________________________________________
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