WORLD WORLDWIDE ITALY SPAIN News Journal Update - (en) Italy, UCADI #172 - Spain at the polls (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

 In response to the disastrous result of the administrative elections, Spanish

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez dissolved the chambers and called general political
elections for July 23. In the Spanish vote for the renewal of twelve autonomous
communities out of seventeen and of all the town halls of the country and other
local administrations, in which over 35 million people took part, the PP won with
31.5% and 7,046,634 votes (in 2019 they were 5,154,728, equal to 22.62%); PSOE
28.1% and 6,288,907 votes (6,695,553, 29.39%); Vox has 7.2%, and doubles the
votes (1.6 million) and percentage; UP, Comuns and Podemos have 3.2% (in this
case the figure is difficult to compare given the number of previous acronyms).
The Spanish premier's goal is to regain the political initiative, wrong-footing
his opponents and thus avoid prolonging what some foresee as a large agony. He
will aim to (re)mobilize the progressive electorate after the success of the
right, arguing that it is necessary to mobilize to prevent a social and political
rightward shift that would harm them. In fact, it should be taken into account
that in the coming weeks the majorities in the regional assemblies and in the
municipal councils will have to be determined and the effects of the vote will
make clear the reduction of political and social spaces in all the fields managed
by the autonomous structures. A different result in the general elections would
rebalance the system and the fear of a victory of the right should push the
electorate to fight the fragmentation on the left and to resort to the useful
vote of which the main beneficiary would be the PSOE. In fact, it should be taken
into account that in the coming weeks the majorities in the regional assemblies
and in the municipal councils will have to be determined and the effects of the
vote will make clear the reduction of political and social spaces in all the
fields managed by the autonomous structures. A different result in the general
elections would rebalance the system and the fear of a victory of the right
should push the electorate to fight the fragmentation on the left and to resort
to the useful vote of which the main beneficiary would be the PSOE. In fact, it
should be taken into account that in the coming weeks the majorities in the
regional assemblies and in the municipal councils will have to be determined and
the effects of the vote will make clear the reduction of political and social
spaces in all the fields managed by the autonomous structures. A different result
in the general elections would rebalance the system and the fear of a victory of
the right should push the electorate to fight the fragmentation on the left and
to resort to the useful vote of which the main beneficiary would be the PSOE.

The reasons for the defeat

What has happened is not only the result of the reactionary turnaround that is
going through the world, but precisely because it is general, it can be traced
back to deep-seated causes, among which there is certainly the choice of the
reformist parties to have considered the victory of capitalism irreversible and
to place themselves at its service as managers of the crisis phase of
globalization, unable to understand what is happening, accepting to see
inequalities and global exploitation grow, abandoning the representation of the
exploited classes and classes. As is now clear, this causes the growing
abstention from the vote of a large part of the left-wing electorate who does not
feel represented in any way.
To understand the extent of the phenomenon, it is not enough to make a comparison
with the previous municipal elections because these were celebrated together with
the European ones and these, in turn, were strongly conditioned, above all in
Catalonia, but not only, by the European candidacies of the leaders of the time
of the independence movement, exiled and imprisoned.
Furthermore, the total disappearance of the Ciutadanos party had a heavy impact
on the distribution of the vote, passing from 8.35% to 1.35% which favored only
VOX and the PP, while no votes went to the PSOE which instead counted on winning
at least a part of the votes of this party in crisis.
On the other hand, it must be said that in these elections the electoral campaign
of the PP and VOX worked very well.
The accusation against the PSOE of being in cahoots with the Catalan and Basque
separatists, its allies, has mobilized the chauvinist and reactionary Spanish
nationalism which periodically resurfaces in the history of Spain. From this
point of view, it must be taken into account that the choice of Bildu (a
coalition of Spanish political parties, operating in the Basque Country, founded
in 2012) to nominate about forty former ETA prisoners (about ten of whom were
convicted of serious crimes of blood) in municipals in the Basque Country and
Navarre has been widely exploited by the right to discredit left-wing parties.
Finally, the PSOE electoral campaign, entirely based on government action
focusing on the many successes in economic management, for salary improvements,
for employment growth and above all for the transformation of many employment
contracts into open-ended contracts have accredited the conviction the thesis of
the right on the political nature of the clash with the paradox that the
political clash took place on the improper terrain of local politics,
overshadowing the positive results that the left also had in the local
administrations it governed. This effect has added to the fear that the right has
raised, claiming that the many left-wing coalition parties that support the
government are backing home occupation movements, in a country like Spain where
as many as 78, 2% of people own a home. Then there was the growth of abstention
from left-wing voters frustrated, at the same time, by the lack of unity of
left-wing forces and eager to see their identity respected, and overall
increasingly convinced by the emptying of effectiveness of institutions .

The underestimation of the right

However, in addition to these general reasons, there are others that specifically
concern the Spanish political situation and in particular the proposals of the
right which has a ruling class that aims at demagoguery and verbal
aggressiveness, but which is very concrete in supporting, as in Italy, the
corporatization of Spanish society. This is what VOX does, proposing
anti-environmental themes, that of widening the meshes of urbanizable land by
supporting the sectors of the bourgeoisie who have built their fortunes by
promoting the real estate bubble. The idea of creating a single type of IRPF at
20% for those earning up to 60 thousand euros, and only 30% for those exceeding
this figure, means a clear reduction in direct taxes for the highest incomes, the
elimination of procedures and fees for setting up companies or the reduction of
the corporate tax from 25 to 20%. Vox's entire program is aimed at expanding
capital profit margins indirectly reducing income from work. The vote for Vox has
very varied social origins, from the petty bourgeoisie to the capitalist sectors
and popular sectors, because it is an identity vote of the historic and
nationalist right that is never dead in Spain as everywhere and which retains
many links with economic power.
The relations of the PP (Popular party) and today a party made up of Christian
Democrats and liberals in economic policy, has always been in favor of the
Monarchy, and is against any hypothesis of independence of Catalonia and the
Netherlands. As far as ethical issues are concerned, the party has always
positioned itself in favor of conservative ideas, it is aligned on positions of
the Catholic Church, proof of which is that he opposed the legalization of
abortion, homosexual marriage, euthanasia. His is therefore a centre-right
electorate, of a conservative orientation, frightened by the great advance of
social legislation and the protection of minority rights that has characterized
Spain in recent years and marked the policy of Pedro Sanchez's government.

The political elections of 23 July

Sancez chose to bring the country to a vote just as Spain has the rotating
presidency of the European Union, convinced that at this point waiting for the
natural end of the legislature would lead to its progressive deterioration. Going
straight to the vote, he trusts that the interest in stability and the consequent
emergency situation play in its favour, pushing the electorate to participate in
the vote and to vote for the socialists, claiming the merits deriving from its
economic, social and rights protection policies. Like all the other reformist and
self-styled European leftist parties, it neglects the weight of its bellicose
politics which represents a genetic nutation with respect to the parameters
according to which a party is placed in the political alignments and all this
leaves the half of the Spaniards who are against it without representation to
war, with the result of fueling a distance from politics and therefore abstention.
The situation we have described leads us to consider the electoral results of 23
July extremely uncertain also because the Chamber of Deputies will vote to elect
350 deputies with an electoral system that rewards the largest parties and
nevertheless allows small parties to have great weight provided that they have a
settlement of a radical of local roots. However, the system means that small
parties whose consensus is distributed throughout the national territory are
destined to succumb when it did not disappear due to their inability to exceed
the 3% district barrier. Indeed, it is necessary to take into account the Spanish
electoral system is proportional with respect to each constituency and not in
terms of overall results; candidates are elected based on the order in which they
appear in the polling stations. The system provides for a very large number of
constituencies, corresponding to the 50 provinces and therefore the number of
representatives who are elected in each constituency is very low: it varies from
1 (only in Melilla and Ceuta), up to over 30 in Madrid and Barcelona. The average
is seven seats for each constituency, creating a barrier that is implicit and
very substantial and which, as has been said, joins the formal one of 3% at the
constituency level. This mechanism harms very small parties in larger
constituencies, such as those of Madrid and Barcelona, for example. The formal
barrier threshold therefore has limited effects, while the effect of the other
elements mentioned above is much more incisive. This benefits the larger parties,
but, at the same time, does not penalize the regional formations whose consents
are concentrated in specific constituencies and allows national formations
capable of exceeding the 3% threshold in the constituency to obtain parliamentary
representation, albeit of smaller dimensions.
The lists are "blocked", i.e. without a preference vote. The very small number of
candidates making up the lists (which in most constituencies are only three, four
or five) nevertheless allows for a good understanding and relationship between
voters and candidates; there is no majority prize for the first classified party.
There are 208 senators, elected directly by the electorate with universal, free,
equal, direct and secret suffrage, according to a plurinominal majority system
which assigns the task of electing 4 senators to each peninsular province, for a
total of 188 elected; on the other hand, 16 senators are assigned to the insular
islands, of which 3 are elected in each of the major islands (Gran Canaria,
Mallorca and Tenerife, for a total of 9), while 1 senator is elected in each
island or group of smaller islands (Ibiza- Formentera, Menorca, Fuerteventura, La
Gomera, El Hierro, Lanzarote-La Graciosa, La Palma; 7 in total). 2 senators are
finally assigned for election to each of the autonomous cities of Ceuta and
Melilla, for a total of 4. In addition, 56 senators are nominated by the 17
assemblies of the Autonomous Communities, each of which elects at least one
senator, to which another one is added for every million inhabitants residing
within the territory of the respective Community. The election of senators in the
latter group is regulated on the basis of an attenuated majority criterion, which
rewards the parties and coalitions with the most votes in the last local
elections and therefore Sancez and his party start at a disadvantage, but even if
the major party does not obtain an absolute majority of seats, it is possible to
create governments with a relative majority, with external support from the
regionalist parties.
There is no doubt that the situation that has arisen sees Podemos, the other
major coalition party, in difficulty, torn apart by internal controversies, the
result of the leadership of its founder, Pablo Iglesias, and damaged by a split
that led to the formation of Sumar (a formation that includes several radical
left parties, including the United Left coalition which also includes the
Communist Party, and various local parties) and the fragmentation in its
electorate) is the big loser in the cantonal elections. Anticipating the lessons,
Sanchez launched a hostile takeover bid against the allied parties of which the
PSOE aims to gather consensus, hoping that the useful vote suggested by the
emergency situation will allow him to downsize his role in the majority of minor
players,

G.L.
http://www.ucadi.org/2023/06/19/la-spagna-alle-urne/
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