On June 30, the Russian Ministry of Justice recognized Boris Grebenshchikov as a
"foreign agent". Of course, the BG is about thirty-five thousand times moreimportant and representative of Russian and Russian-speaking culture than all theemployees of the so-called "Ministry of Justice" of the so-called "RussianFederation" put together. So we accompany this episode of trends with BG music.That's really true - our death rides in black armored cars with flashing lights.---- Revolts fake and real ---- In previous "Trends" we have already raised thetopic of various alternative scenarios for the development of events in Russia.Well, a week has passed, the so-called "Prigozhin rebellion" and the one-daymarch on Moscow ended, those in power quietly sorted out the problem, resolvedquestions, someone promised something to someone, some generals were eitherarrested or not . Life in the country has not changed, society did notparticipate in the "mutiny".Feel, by the way, the contrast with what is happening now in France. Policestations are on fire there, protesters accuse the police of systemic racism,which leads to murders. About a thousand people have already been arrested, butthe protests do not subside, because this is a genuine popular revolt. It isunlikely that it will lead to a change in the political system, but it willcertainly intimidate the French cops and seriously raise the issue of racialprejudice in Europe.But let's get back to Prigogine's rebellion. All this squabbling did notparticularly affect the war with Ukraine. Unfortunately, despite all the NATOassistance, the Ukrainian army is obviously not able to break through the frontin any significant way as part of its widely publicized "counteroffensive." It isunderstandable - it is much easier to defend than to attack. Six months ago,Putin's army fought head-on against Bakhmut with huge losses - now the same thingis happening with the Ukrainian army. Pressure on the Russian troops, of course,is underway, but no strategic success is visible.That is, in general, Putin can be satisfied: the annexed territories are beingheld and actively developed, something like the liberation of Kherson is clearlynot expected in the near future. In general, there is little hope for a miracle.War without endIt is clear that there can be all sorts of "black swans", but they arefundamentally unpredictable. So I'll try to be a pessimist: for now, the main"default" option is that the war will continue in a positional version, withregular seizures of some ruined farm and "advancements" of 10 meters back andforth. People on both sides will constantly die in this war, arms manufacturersfrom Russia, China and NATO will make billions in this war, and Putin willcontinue to hold on to power. Or some Putin-2 from his inner circle, no difference.And even PMC "Wagner" may continue to fight in Ukraine as if nothing hadhappened. The boys agree, so to speak. The bombing of both Ukrainian and Russiancities will continue, the border regions of Russia such as Belgorod and Kurskwill become "gray zones" like the DPR and LPR. This can go on for decades.At the same time, protesters against the war will continue to be sentenced to 8years in prison for posts on social networks, like anarchist Ruslan Ushakov onJune 29. But these very anti-war posts will become less and less: partly due toself-censorship, and partly due to emigration from the country.The state will become hyper-militarized: the military and the cops are alreadygetting higher salaries, they will be a privileged class. A significant part ofindustrial facilities will switch to the production of exclusively militaryequipment, as has already happened with Uralvagonzavod. Resources for this willcontinue to be provided by the export of raw materials, primarily oil and gas: inthe coming years they will be sold to someone, albeit at a discount. Thisdegradation and archaization of the economic basis will also affect the politicalsuperstructure (leading to its even greater fascisization), and at the same time,the entire society.There will be more and more cases like "Wagner", when the president publiclyadmits that somehow 200 billion rubles in cash went out of the budget for aseemingly "private" military company. And no one will care anymore.However, even now, it seems, the Russian society is not very excited about thisnews. Well, we spent the budget of a whole large region on mercenaries, well,okay. But stability and there is no "damned nineties." The propaganda machineworks well - also because it fulfills the request of the general population forat least a dream of stability. So to speak, a sweet dream about imperialgreatness and victories. "I am glad to be deceived myself," as our AlexanderPushkin wrote. I wonder if the dead are recognized as foreign agents? Why not!What to do? Everything is bad?But it is even more interesting what anarchists in Russia can do under theseconditions. And not only anarchists, but normal people in general.At first glance, not much. Anarchists are weak, the most active part is in exile,in prisons or fighting as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, someone has gonedeep underground. But even if, by some miracle, an active libertarianorganization such as Autonomous Action at the end of the 2000s existed in theRussian Federation, there would be no revolutionary situation in the country andis not expected.After all, anarchism is a political movement that raises the question of power(only, unlike other politicians, we do not want power for ourselves, but we wantpower to belong to the people). But in conditions of total depoliticization ofsociety, political movements become impossible and meaningless.As one anarchist said about the reaction of Rostovites to Wagner armored vehiclesin the city during the "mutiny": "People live in a paradigm that nothing can bechanged, and therefore people came to watch, like in a circus."You can call it differently - depoliticization, learned helplessness, passivity,but the result is the same. For the most part, Russians are not used to raisingthe question of power, and they consider any political action a circus that canonly be looked at from the outside.At the same time, Putin's state itself is not some kind of impregnable fortress.We know that the Russian army, cops and FSB are weak when they are reallyopposed. Everyone saw and read about how the security forces refused to followorders to attack the Wagnerites, and in general, no one cared about the pilotswho died during the mutiny. But the real confrontation implies the same "armedrebellion", which in Putin's Russia only members of Putin's gang are capable of.Be the stormSo, anarchists are facing the prospect of finding themselves in a country that isexpected by years (if not decades) of degradation and constant war. What to do? Imust say right away that neither I nor Autonomous Action as a whole haveready-made recipes. But it is important to remember that, unlike progress,archaization cannot last indefinitely: at some point, an archaizing locationsimply ceases to exist as a political subject. But the land and the peopleremain! And we can influence how these people organize their lives, whether ithappens in two years or in forty. As long as there are channels for broadcastingour ideas to the population of the so-called "Russian Federation" (the sameYoutube and Telegram), we need to use them. The total destruction of theanarchist movement in the early USSR led to the fact that in the 1980s everythinghad to be restored from absolute zero. The post-Soviet anarchist movement alreadyhas almost forty years of history. It is important that this continuity bepreserved, otherwise, in a hypothetical "post-Russia" for the time being,anarchists will step on the same rake.Our ideas can be conveyed in very different ways, including not calling them"anarchism", and even sometimes using the theses of the Kremlin propaganda, onlyturning them inside out and showing their falsity.Let's take the example of Putin, who personally spit on all these principles of"inevitability of punishment" and closed the criminal case against Prigozhin,while promising the Wagnerites complete security. The funny thing is that theanarchists here paradoxically agree with the explanation given by Putin'sfull-time propagandist Margo Simonyan: that, they say, laws are not God'scommandments, and if they are not applicable to a given situation, then they canbe ignored. We, somehow, also believe that laws are not God's commandments, andwe do not feel sacred awe before the criminal code. But we are sure that it is upto the people themselves to decide which laws are applicable or not, and when,and not some president-dictator of his own free will. Yes, and these same lawsshould also be established by the whole society as a whole, and not by a manualparliament, which, as you know, in Russia "is not a place for discussion."Paradoxically, Putin's disrespect for his own laws can be used for anarchistpropaganda in the spirit of "Why Putin can, but you can't"? By the way, it isindicative how, just a few days after the end of the Prigozhin rebellion, theCouncil of Teips of Ingushetia asked Putin to release the prisoners of the"Ingush case", just as the Wagnerites were released from responsibility. Let meremind you that in 2019, the Ingush went to mass protests against changing theborders of Ingushetia, and the local riot police refused to disperse them, theyhad to import cops from neighboring regions. As a result, political prisonersappeared in Ingushetia with criminal articles on "mass riots." That is, somegrassroots regional structures are already trying to make such hi-jacking of theKremlin's excuses.Anarchist propaganda can also do this: one of the bloggers on our websiteavtonom.org even described in detail what bottlenecks in the Kremlin's publicpolicy can be exploited.Let's add to this only the fact that in near-political conversations, Russiansthirsting for stability often use the "who if not Putin" argument. It seems thatin such situations it is not necessary to step into the trap of naming variousnames from Navalny to Prigozhin. By doing this, you accept the very rules of thegame "choose your own emperor." Instead, it is better to offer the interlocutorthe idea of a parliamentary republic, where there is no president at all - formodern Russia this is already very revolutionary, but at the same time it has achance of being realized under certain circumstances. By the way, we have adetailed appeal about this. In general, "do what you must and come what may"Media project "Autonomous Action" will continue to accumulate both informationabout the actions of anarchists in and around Russia, and discussions andopinions on how the anarchist movement should work in an openly fascist state. Atthe same time, it is very important not to perceive us as some kind of anarchisttelevision. We are only part of a large decentralized network of people andcollectives who, in Bakunin's words, believe that "freedom without socialism isthe privilege of injustice, and socialism without freedom is slavery andbestiality." You, dear listener or listener, are the same part of this network.Be that storm that will eventually sweep away the rotten pillars and braces:first around you, and then throughout the country!Well, that's all for today! We remind you that in "Trends of Order and Chaos" theparticipants of Autonomous Action and other authors give anarchist assessments ofcurrent events. Listen to us on YouTube, SoundCloud and other platforms, visitour website avtonom.org, subscribe to our weekly e-mail newsletter!Issue prepared by Manihttps://avtonom.org/news/moya-smert-ezdit-v-chyornoy-mashine-s-golubym-ogonkom-trendy-poryadka-i-haosa-112_________________________________________A - I N F O S N E W S S E R V I C EBy, For, and About AnarchistsSend news reports to A-infos-en mailing listA-infos-en@ainfos.ca
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