What happened? ---- On October 29, Russia announced that it had
suspended its participation in the "grain deal" - an agreement thatallowed Ukraine, with the cooperation of Turkey and the United Nations,to export grain through ports previously blocked by war. However, onNovember 2, Russia unexpectedly decided to resume the agreement. Weexplain why Russian authorities are blocking Ukrainian wheat exports andhow these actions are worsening the global food crisis.Ukraine is a global supplier of grains. ---- What do you need to know?---- In 2021, before the Russian invasion, Ukraine was among the leadingcountries in grain exports. At the export level, wheat accounted for 18%of Ukraine's revenue. Ukraine, therefore, guaranteed 10% of the worldwheat market, 15% of corn, 13% of barley and half of the sunflower oilmarket.How did the grain blockade begin?Russia had blockaded the Ukrainian coast at the beginning of February2022. Then it announced "military operations" with missiles andartillery in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov and transported its fleetto these areas. Russia, therefore, had strengthened its military powernear the Ukrainian borders, blocking sea routes and ports. Ukrainetransported most of its agricultural supplies by sea.Some ports - such as Mariupol and Kherson - had subsequently beenoccupied by Russian military forces; but Ukraine had not been able touse the ports under its control. The Maritime Administration of Ukrainehad reported that there were about a hundred foreign ships blocked inits ports (including their crews). To continue trading abroad, Ukrainewould have to export grain by train, converting[from sea to]river andland logistics. But the carrying capacity was significantly lower thanthat transported by sea. The world market had lost one of its largestfood suppliers. At the end of March, United Nations Secretary AntónioGuterres declared: "The Ukrainian people are living in absolute hell.The repercussions are being felt around the world through skyrocketingprices of food, energy and fertilizers.[All this can turn]into a globalfood crisis." At the same time, Mykola Solsky, Ukraine's Minister ofAgrarian Policy, spoke of a surplus of at least 20 million tons of grain- stuck in ports and waiting to leave the country .What is the Grain Agreement?In July, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations begannegotiations to unblock Ukrainian wheat exports by sea. On July 27, anagreement was signed in Istanbul: cargo ships could leave the ports ofOdessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny in international waters and enter theBosphorus through an agreed safe corridor. Ships to or from Ukraine wereto be inspected by the Joint Coordination Center, also established underthe Istanbul Agreement and composed of representatives of Ukraine,Russia and Turkey. The latter, led by Erdogan, was the initiator, aswell as the guarantor, of the agreement.Russia had agreed to this agreement as the UN promised to removesanctions on Russian fertilizers and agricultural products - as reportedby Radio Liberty. The exclusion from international trade of an importantsupplier like Russia had exacerbated the food crisis; in mid-Septemberthe United States and the European Union had finally removed Russianagricultural categories from the sanctions lists.The day after the "grain deal", Russia launched a missile attack on theport of Odessa. But the grain supplies stored[in that port]had not beendamaged. During the period of the agreement, Ukraine was able to exportnine million tons of grain by sea. Although Ukraine lost 25% of itscultivated area - and Russia, in the meantime, had stolen part of thegrain already harvested -, Ukrainian exports in October were (almost)equal to the values of the previous year. The agreement was to be validfor 120 days, until November 22; after which it could be extended.Notably, there was no direct agreement between Russia and Ukraine:Turkey and the United Nations had signed a separate agreement withUkraine and with Russia.How is Russia trying to sabotage the deal and why does it want to do it?According to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, as of mid-October Russianinspectors from the Joint Coordination Center had[significantly delayedthe inspection of ships]carrying Ukrainian grain. On October 29, therewere explosions in the occupied city of Sevastopol: several ships of theRussian Black Sea Fleet were damaged. The Russian Foreign Ministry haddeclared that the drone attack had been conducted by the AFU - under theguidance of specialists British. Russian authorities considered theattack to be a violation of the July agreement and announced that Russiawould suspend its participation indefinitely. At the same time, officialUkrainian sources had not confirmed the attack. Andrei Klimenko,"The Black Sea zone was used both for military operations - such asmissile attacks by the Black Sea Fleet in various regions of Ukraine -and for the operation of the grain agreement. And, most interestingly,there was no 'was reason to stop[the deal.]'The highest officials of the EU, the United States and NATO immediatelycalled on Russia to rejoin the agreement, stressing that disruptionsignificantly aggravates the global food crisis. US Secretary of StateAnthony Blinken declared that Russia was using "food as a weapon." Toresolve the situation, the UN "got in touch" with the Russian side.On October 31, Turkey, Ukraine and the United Nations had agreed on aplan to continue deliveries and communicated it to the Russian side. Thethree parties had agreed to keep the grain corridor running - by signinga separate document. So if Russia interfered in the security of thegrain corridor, it would have violated the agreement with Turkey and theUN - but not with Ukraine.In early November, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced therestoration of the agreement; this was possible "thanks to theparticipation of the United Nations and the assistance of Turkey."According to Russian authorities, these parties had helped ensure thatUkraine would not use "the corridor and ports for military operations."Some analysts believed that Russia wanted to blackmail the UN with afood crisis. As energy prices collapsed, Russia began to look for newresources to put pressure on other countries - including to shake offthe effects of sanctions. And it was on the grain market that Russiacould potentially increase its revenue, thereby reducing Ukraine's moneyflow. By the end of the year, Russia expects a record grain harvest -more than 140 million tons of wheat, double its domestic demand.What happens if Ukrainian grain exports are blocked?Nathalie Broadhurst, France's deputy permanent representative to theUnited Nations, estimated that, due to the war, the number of peoplegoing hungry will increase by 13 million. This situation furtheraggravates a series of problems caused by pandemics, natural disasters,other wars and other cataclysms. The International Monetary Fund hassaid[that the current conflict has caused]one of the worst food crisessince 2008. We wrote about the background to these crises earlier thissummer. Lebanon, Egypt, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Guyana, Moldova and othercountries depend on Ukrainian grain imports for at least 40% - and evenmore. Furthermore, some of the grain supplied by Russia was, in fact, ofUkrainian origin.For the countries of sub-Saharan Africa (Somalia, Mali, Niger,Mauritania, Democratic Republic of Congo) as well as for Afghanistan,Syria and Yemen, the main problem is the increase in food prices -inevitable when one of the major global suppliers is blocked. In thesecountries, tens of millions of people have experienced malnutrition andother more severe forms of food deficiency. "In the Central AfricanRepublic,[people]used to spend up to 80% of their income on food; nowthey will spend 100%. This is a huge problem for them," said AndreiSizov, director of SovEcon.Appendix.News from the "Important Stories" telegram channelA) Wheat prices rose sharply after Russia said it was treating cargoships in the Black Sea as legitimate military targets (July 19)September wheat futures rose 9% on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (theleading global gauge of wheat prices). The reason stems from thisstatement from the Russian Ministry of Defense: "ships traveling throughthe Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be considered as carriers ofmilitary cargo."This is the biggest price surge since the war between Russia and Ukrainebroke out. The September futures price brings a gain of about 8% -precisely about $7.2 per bushel (38.6 kg of wheat).After Russia withdrew from the wheat deal, wheat prices rose by 5%between Monday 17 and Tuesday 18 July.Vladimir Putin said: "It is Russia that makes a major contribution toglobal food security, and any claim that only Ukrainian wheat feeds theworld's hungry is speculation and a lie." At the same time, Putinadmitted that Russia will return to the grain agreement "if allpreviously agreed principles on Russia's participation are fully takeninto account and implemented without exception." He stated that Russiawould be able to replace Ukrainian wheat on a commercial and pro bono basis.B) Ukraine will consider all ships traveling to Russian Black Sea portsas carriers of military cargo. Russia had issued a similar statement theday before. (20 July)The Ukrainian side introduces a new regime starting from midnight onJuly 21st. Ships bound for (temporarily occupied) Russian and Ukrainianports will be considered as carriers of military cargo - "with all therelevant risks", the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said in a statement.Furthermore, the Ukrainian army has banned navigation in thenorth-eastern part of the Black Sea and the Kerch Strait - defined asdangerous spots.The Russian Ministry of Defense declared on Wednesday that starting frommidnight on July 20, ships heading to Ukrainian ports would beconsidered as carriers of military cargo. The statement came three daysafter Russia announced its withdrawal from the grain deal.Adam Hodge, spokesman for the US President's National Security Council,warned that the Russian military could attack civilian ships and thenblame Ukraine. According to Hodge, the Russians have installedadditional mine barriers in front of the entrances to Ukrainian ports.* https://doxa.team/articles/grain-dealDOXA was launched as a student magazine that talked about the problemsof Russian universities.Alternativa Libertaria/FdCA Il Cantiere #19 settembre 2023ilcantiere@autistici.org http://alternativalibertaria.fdca.it/_________________________________________A - I N F O S N E W S S E R V I C EBy, For, and About AnarchistsSend news reports to A-infos-en mailing listA-infos-en@ainfos.ca
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