WORLD WORLDWIDE ITALY News Journal Update - (en) Italy, Anares Info: GAZA. GEOPOLITICAL SCENARIOS (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

 

The war in Gaza, like all contemporary wars, has more than one dimension
to analyze in order to try to understand what is happening. ---- In many
ways the complexity of current wars can be described as a structure of
concentric circles in which each circle is contained in a larger circle
with which it intersects. ---- Other commentators have used the
seductive metaphor of the matryoshka, the Russian doll that contains
within it various other dolls of increasingly smaller dimensions. In my
opinion, however, the comparison with the intersecting circles contained
within the same geometric figure is more incisive as it gives an account
of how each dimension of the war event is in immediate relation with the
others.

Specifically in the war between Israel and the hegemonic force among the
Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip, he sees the problematic
intersection of a local issue, that relating to the control of the
territories contained in what was the English mandate of Palestine after
the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire, a regional area that sees the
challenge between the states that emerged from decolonization for
hegemony over the area, also taking into account the ethnic rivalries
between Arabs, Turks, Iranians and the religious rivalries between
Shiites and Sunnis (without forgetting the internal to the Sunni front
in which there is no lack of different political and religious centers
of power), another which pits Israel itself against each other, not
wrongly considered as the result of a Western colonization operation and
at the same time a reality now fully integrated in the Middle East, and
the post-colonial states and yet another dimension constituted by the
ongoing global conflict between the hegemonic power, the United States,
and the series of regional powers with aspirations of global projection,
such as China, Russia and the other BRICS countries.
What interests us in this article is to try to grasp how the actual
military action carried out by the militias belonging to the religious
political party Hamas close to the borders between the Gaza Strip and
Israel have also deeply affected elements relating to dimensions that go
well beyond beyond the local conflict that we know so well.
To do this it is necessary to take a step back and turn to the process
of deglobalization slowly set up by the United States (which in the
previous twenty years had instead pushed strongly in the direction of
economic globalization) starting from the second Obama presidency and
the process of decoupling the power itself from the Middle East which
dates to the same period.
The United States used the 1990s and the 2000s in a useless economic and
military offensive with the aim of asserting their control over world
politics, trade and production. The Clinton and Bush administrations
were protagonists of an adventure aimed at building a world empire,
moving from the attraction of the defeated enemy and the complicit
adversary (Russia and China) within world bodies, to the containment of
national forces African and Asian, to the destruction of the devastating
potential constituted by the uprisings linked to the Islamic
international. The steps were on the one hand the entry of Russia and
China into the WTO, the wars in Serbia, Afghanistan and Iraq on the
other, with the constant Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the backdrop to
the impossible stabilization of the Middle East, still today the main
source of energy of the wider West.
The Obama presidency, in a different way the Trump presidency and the
current Biden presidency signal the American abandonment of the imperial
perspective and positioning itself as a conflicting party within the
transformation of the world into a new conflictual multilateralism that
is gradually taking hold.
The disconnection from the Middle East for the USA is central in this
perspective because it is still the front of the hidden war that costs
Washington the most in men and capital. Detachment means having
preliminarily stabilized an area, otherwise the disengagement tragically
resembles that carried out by the Stars and Stripes troops from Kabul in
September 2022. A grotesque escape, the abandonment of one's local
allies to the ferocity of the Taliban fighters ousted from power for 20
years and in the meantime become freedom fighters before an Afghan
people who, outside the main cities, have seen no benefits from Western
occupation, and the cancellation of the prospect of encircling China by
land with the establishment of pro-American regimes in Central Asia.
For this reason, the US Administration, after having tried in vain to
work on an agreement with the Iranian enemy during Obama's time, aimed
at pacifying the area and forcing the Tehran and Tel Aviv regimes to
recognize each other, albeit through gritted teeth, has taken the path
of those "Abraham Accords" between Israel and the Arab countries
belonging to the group of Gulf countries, Sunnis and sworn enemies of Iran.
The prospect of the Abraham Accords is fully included in the
deglobalization strategy called friend shoring and aimed at isolating
China or in any case canceling its especially economic relations with
the broader West. In this sense, the pandemic has coincided with a clear
acceleration of this process which is seeing the cooling of China-US and
China-Europe relations and the vanishing of global trade projects such
as that of the Silk Road which were successful no more than five years
ago. even in our latitudes even among unsuspecting political leaders
such as Salvini, whose government in condominium with Conte produced the
only memorandum of association of a European country with the project of
restoration of the ancient trade routes between Europe and the East.
Friend Shoring is based as a concept on an extremely simple basis and
refers to the Cold War period between opposing blocs: it involves
withdrawing investments, production and commercial relations from
competing countries and moving them to countries belonging to the
Western bloc. In simple words, cut ties with enemies and favor friends.
Provided, obviously, that my friends in turn break with my enemies.
Otherwise the risk of ending up among the "bad guys" is always present.
These are evidently general measures because we are not aware that the
United States refuses to sell its public debt to China and that Apple
(which actually now conducts its own foreign policy partially different
from that of Washington) has closed all its investments in the Asian
country. However, it is a strong trend that divides the world in two and
that forces every government that wants to do business in the USA to
align itself with them in its political and above all economic choices.
The war in Ukraine was an excellent deal for the USA also from this
point of view because it allowed Washington to impose on European
countries (and primarily Germany and Italy) the severing of energy
relations with Russia which had the fortune of the two main
manufacturing economies of Europe and of plunging the locomotive of the
Old Continent into a vertical crisis from which it will probably not be
able to recover. In this way the United States has closely linked the
whole of Europe to its project of an expanded West under American
guidance and management, leaving behind thirty years in which the
countries on this side of the Atlantic had claimed and practiced a
foreign policy that was not only autonomous but sometimes conflicting
with the wishes of the American ally.
The so-called "cotton route" fits into this framework, the imaginary
alternative to Euro-Eastern trade, replaced with a direct relationship
between India, a treacherous but necessary ally in an anti-Chinese
function, and Europe. It's a shame that to get from one place to another
it is necessary to build infrastructures of a certain importance which
necessarily (having to discard Pakistan and Iran, enemy countries) must
pass through Arab countries and Israel in order to flow into the
Mediterranean Sea.
The Abraham Accords were the closing of the circle and the stroke of
genius that would lead to the solution of the equation, guaranteeing to
tie India to the Western chariot, to allow Europe to connect to an
expanding and developing market alternative to the Chinese and to be
able to abandon the Middle Eastern scenario finally pacified by the USA.
It's a shame for Washington that, while US strategists operate, the
other actors on the scene are not sleeping. In January, China struck a
blow by allowing the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia with
the resumption of diplomatic relations and the vanishing of a scenario
that should have seen Saudis and Israelis standing shoulder to shoulder
to defend the American order threatened by the bad guys in Tehran. Now
the military action of Hamas has shattered the illusion because it is
clear that a political actor cornered and threatened by a slow but no
less effective ethnic cleansing could only feel the agreement between
the Saudis and the Israelis as the definitive compromise of the noose
around his neck. If we add to this that the axis between Turkey and
Qatar (sponsor of the Muslim Brotherhood to which Hamas belongs)
certainly did not stand idly by and that Erdogan immediately supported
Hamas' action (let's be clear, without risking anything), we find
ourselves in a context in which the American prospects for pacification
of the area have clearly been shattered.
The consequences of local actions in such a complex context as the
Palestinian one, as we have seen, have the potential to shatter large
projects conceived in geopolitical laboratory spaces and to further
complicate the picture. In this sense, October 7th will probably be
remembered as one of the fundamental dates to remember within the future
narrative of a world war that has evidently already exploded and (for
now) fought on local scenarios but whose ferocity and destructive
potential is now evident to all and everyone, as it is evident that only
radical and decisive action against the neo-colonial and aggressive
policies carried out by Western governments and their emerging
competitors will be able to avoid the burning of entire parts of humanity.
Stefano Capello (article published on Umanità Nova)

https://www.anarresinfo.org/gaza-scenari-geopolitici/
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