Claudia Sheinbaum, a 61-year-old professor of nuclear engineering with a
progressive orientation, will be the first female president of Mexico.She obtained 60% of the votes. Together with her, her party, the
National Regeneration Movement (Morena), also elected two-thirds of the
country's 32 governors. Furthermore, the Sigamos Haciendo Historia
government coalition (which brings together Morena, the Greens and the
Labor Party) may perhaps have a two-thirds majority in both houses of
Congress, which will allow it to approve constitutional reforms without
the support of the opposition.
Her opponent, the businesswoman of indigenous origin and senator of the
state of Hidalgo Xóchitl Gálvez obtained 28% of the preferences, while
Álvarez Máynez, the candidate of the centrist Movimiento Ciudadano,
obtained 10%. Sheinbaum is an esteemed and highly experienced politician
having already been mayor of Mexico City, a city state of around 15
million inhabitants. Her strength is that of taking up the legacy of
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the outgoing President, very popular among
the most disadvantaged sections of the population. Addressing her
constituents she declared; "We imagine a plural, diverse and democratic
Mexico. Our duty is and will always be to take care of every Mexican,
without distinction."
The vote closes the most violent electoral campaign in the country's
modern history, with more than 30 candidates killed and hundreds of
others abandoning, under the weight of threats from narcos and criminal
groups. Despite this, more than 100 million voters registered to vote,
while a suffocating heat enveloped the country. The election of a woman
in a country where a 'macho' culture dominates and - with an average of
15 feminicides a day - ago of Mexico one of the most dangerous countries
in the world for women. The President will have to work hard to fight
impunity for murderers in a country that supports values and roles for
women anchored in the conservative tradition, fueled by the Catholic
orientation of the majority of the population, which permeates social
sentiment. It remains to be seen whether the President will be able to
use the 35 million votes received to follow in the footsteps of her
predecessor in the fight against corruption and in implementing the
policy of the so-called "fourth Transformation" which provides support
for the elderly and single mothers, strengthening of the state social to
alleviate inequalities among the population, infrastructure projects in
historically poor regions. Her slogan "the poor first" did not modernize
the production system and increase the deficit, but it rationalized
public resources, reduced the excesses of bureaucracy and improved the
living conditions of agricultural workers and indigenous populations.
Under the previous government, poverty, despite the pandemic and the
resulting economic crisis, was reduced by almost 6%, and the Mexican
peso strengthened.
The most difficult issue in her policy will certainly be ensuring and
guaranteeing security and deciding which policy to adopt towards the use
of the army called by the outgoing president to cover functions
traditionally assigned to civilians to deal with crime. This is because
sometimes in some territories the army has ended up being one of the
many cartels competing for control of the territory and the economy. The
strength of organized crime appears stable and its eradication distant.
The country's other major problem is its very long border (2000 km) with
the United States which constitutes the last obstacle to overcome for
the uninterrupted flow of migrants from all over the continent and above
all from the very poor countries of Central America. they head towards
the United States, in long columns that periodically set off towards
what is considered the border of hope, towards a better world. The
United States is asking Mexico to stop the migratory flow and act as a
filter for the continuous passage of migrants towards US territory.
Furthermore, this trafficking fuels crime and constitutes a lucrative
earning opportunity for the passer organizations, the so-called coyotes,
who operate along the border, which no one wants to give up. It should
be added that the difficulties in controlling the territory facilitate
the location in Mexico of the laboratories that produce Fentanyl, a
synthetic drug that has invaded the United States causing thousands of
deaths.
The Mexican gamble of nearshoring Mexico's development prospects are
mainly based on the possibility that the country becomes the main
beneficiary of nearshoring the US economy, i.e. the choice of US
companies to outsource production to geographically closer countries, a
phenomenon that is gaining more and more ground in the post pandemic.
In this scenario of redefinition of production chains and growing
geopolitical tensions, Mexico could be the main beneficiary of US
nearshoring, as it is favored by its proximity to the US and the United
States-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA). This ensures that the
country presents itself as one of the main recipients of this emerging
trend. With a population of almost 130 million inhabitants, Mexico is
the tenth most populous nation in the world and is, immediately after
Brazil, the most populous country in Latin America. 60% of its
population are mestizos, of mixed European (predominantly Spanish) and
indigenous descent. Amerindians, belonging to various indigenous nations
(such as the Mayans), represent 20% of Mexicans. This allows the country
to have abundant and cheap labor.
For a good part of the 20th century the country's main source of wealth
was oil, even if the country's industrialization process allowed the
diversification of the economy. Workers' remittances from abroad have
increased year on year and represent 3% of GDP, constituting an
important source of foreign currency, alongside earnings from oil
exports and tourism. Careful reflection on the effects of delocalisation
towards countries very far from the markets for which the goods are
destined has led the US industry, which had delocalised towards Asia, to
reconsider; thus approximately 79% of US manufacturing companies
operating in Asia have already started or plan to transfer part of their
operations to North America and have identified Mexico as a possible
destination.
According to Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) estimates, short- and
medium-term nearshoring opportunities for Latin America would mean up to
$78 billion per year in new exports of products and services,
particularly from sectors such as pharmaceutical, renewable energy,
textile and automotive sectors, among others.
Of this total, Mexico could receive around 35 billion dollars, which
undoubtedly makes the Latin American country one of the greatest
beneficiaries of the phenomenon.
Already at the end of 2022, industrial settlements on the border with
Mexico -such as in Tijuana, Mexicali, Ciudad Juárez and Nuevo Laredo-
and the northeastern and western regions of the country -in the areas
around Monterrey and Guadalajara- have recorded historic figures leasing
for industrial surfaces. These data reflect the massive relocation of
companies from various sectors which, as a measure to reduce the risk of
partial or total business closures in Asia, are landing in cities and
states that have skilled labor, as well as world-class infrastructure
and services, to begin their operations.
The so-called El Bajío macroregion -which includes states with a high
level of infrastructure such as Guanajuato, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí
and Aguascalientes- and which currently has an available inventory of
approximately 3% of world-class industrial facilities, is practically
ready to welcome companies seeking to establish themselves in Mexico and
certainly constitutes the area of greatest development in the country
since El Bajío offers sophisticated services in the field of energy,
water and security, connectivity, among many others, without forgetting
the localizations strategic and connectivity for the transfer of goods
at the border, in the center and in the south of the country, which
allow to establish
profitable and efficient operations almost immediately.
The Trump unknown
If the new Mexican Presidency aims to make use of this favorable
situation, increased by the fact that similar choices are being made,
for example, by the Chinese, investing in Mexico, aware of the country's
proximity to US territory and the particular conditions under which the
goods produced here are exported to the continental market: precisely
for these reasons the main danger is represented by Trump's intentions
to denounce the free trade agreement between Mexico, the United States
and Canada (NAFTA).
In his demagogic narrative of the relaunch of the United States, the
tycoon claims that the relocation of US industries to Mexico
impoverishes jobs in the United States and therefore intends to impose
customs duties on imports from Mexico and Canada which would enormously
damage the economies of these countries. In doing so, Trump and his
advisors seem to ignore the negative effects of such a choice on the
competitiveness of the United States economy and do not realize that
encouraging the development of Mexico is the only way to stem the trend
of uncontrolled emigration to the United States which could find in the
Mexican labor market an outlet for the growing demand for work coming
from the poor countries of the continent. It is a fact that over the
last three years, Mexico has become the largest exporter of manufactured
goods to the United States (US Census Bureau data as of 09/30/2023)
highlighting the importance that localization, trade agreements, wages
competitive and political support from the United States plays a role in
the rationalization and strengthening of supply chain networks, so much
so that Mexico now holds a 15.9% market share of exports to the USA,
having displaced China, which has fallen at 13.3 percent (Redwheel data al
31/10/2023). Manufacturing exports from Mexico (currently equal to
around 40% of GDP, according to World Bank and IMF data as of
10/31/2023) could enter a new phase of expansion thanks to the
acceleration of the growth of manufacturing clusters existing and the
birth of new ecosystems to the point that Mexican exports
could increase by $155 billion (equal to over 10% of GDP).
The stakes are therefore very high and the new president of Mexico will
have to do everything to strengthen the country's position in foreign
policy with determination, countering any attempt by the United States
to leave the country in a situation of vassalage, in continuity with the
of the United States of all times which have carved out for themselves a
hegemonic position compared to that of all Latin American countries in
application of the Monroe Doctrine.
Although Sheinbaum's main resources will be dedicated to promoting the
development of the country, the reduction of inequality, a more equal
distribution of wealth, the defense of women's lives and the overcoming
of the patriarchal society that characterizes the country, attention
will certainly be paid to protection of the climate and the environment,
as the environmentalist positions of the President are well known, one
of the heads of state technically capable of tackling the problem in a
country particularly rich in biodiversity and natural beauty. In any
case, an encouraging sign in an international panorama in which
right-wing populism and authoritarian and dictatorial solutions seem to
prevail.
G.L.
https://www.ucadi.org/2024/06/30/adelante-mexico/
_________________________________________
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