If Europe had a bumpy ride in 2024, we're now buckling up and putting on the hard hats. 2025 looms ahead of us and the EU ship is creaking already. Will the rivets hold or will the economic and defence challenges twist the Union beyond recognition?
There is little doubt that the resilience of the European bloc is largely contingent on the strength of its members, of which many are caught in their own domestic turmoil, buffeted by the changing political tide and uneasy about how to secure their fortunes in the face of military escalation in Eastern Europe and aggressive economic tactics from the US.
At the heart of Europe, these external and domestic pressures have kept Belgium floundering for months as the five parties negotiating to form a Federal Government go round in circles, disagreeing on the socio-economic programme that will be the foundation of their mandate. Tensions have simmered, calls to reason have gone unheeded, and bitter rivals have been forced to leave their differences at the door. And where has it got us?
It's a question that will soon be answered, though probably just in part. The lead negotiator Bart De Wever will inform King Philippe on Monday how it's going, at which point it will become a bit clearer if there's hope at all for a government before 2025 crashes down upon us.
The lack of decision is an enormous hold-up that's likely costing Belgium millions in lost investment and reputational damage in the business community (that will be absolutely crucial to turning our economic woes around). The pessimism can be measured at street level, where consumer confidence is in the doldrums and households are pinched by rising energy prices and concern about a cold winter.
Just bumbling along in the Belgian way won't extricate us from this predicament, but that's exactly what will happen so long as the five negotiating parties can't strike a deal. For six months, De Croo's "Vivaldi" government has overseen national affairs, no longer entitled to make policy changes but there to keep things ticking over.
This has been a fairly disengaged arrangement: the outgoing ministers barely see each other and without any power to take executive decisions there is little reason to get together at all. As one (of the seven) deputy Prime Ministers explained: "What needs to happen happens. Why should we organise dinner every week?"
But the old guard will meet again. The new year is soon upon us and Belgium needs a budget. So De Croo will convene his old team on Monday to decide on a system of "provisional twelfths", which will allow the Federal Government to spend one-twelfth of its total expenditure for 2024 each month.
One unnamed source quipped: "We're not going to distribute billions by stealth," alluding to the still significant amounts that will be used to pay for public services and other critical life systems. But this will do nothing to fix the fundamental financial holes that are sinking Belgium in a swollen deficit.
May Monday bring good news.
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