The fearful Chancellor Scholz has thrown in the towel and the traffic
light coalition has finally entered into crisis. The dismissal of theMinister of Economy, the liberal Christian Lindner, puts an end to a
government that had been characterized by the nefarious presence of the
Greens and the Minister of Defense Annalena Baerbock, obtuse supporter
of Zelensky and Ukraine, short-sighted executor of Washington's
warmongering policy in Europe. Her environmentalist fanaticism had
pushed her to welcome the sabotage of Stream Two that had deprived
Germany of cheap fossil energy, in her opinion accelerating the
ecological and environmentalist reconversion of the German energy
apparatus. The choice to simultaneously order the closure of nuclear
power plants, then postponed due to the oil and gas crisis, and that of
having looked favorably on the termination of relations with Russia, has
brought the German economy into the abyss, eliminating that favorable
condition, constituted by the availability of low-cost energy, which
allowed German industry to prosper. It is true that the production of
wind energy in Germany has grown enormously, but not to the point of
compensating for the lack of low-cost supplies of oil and gas. But above
all, the conflict with Russia and the need to finance the Ukrainian war
effort has bled German finances dry, fueled the need for expenses for
rearmament, while the influx of more than a million Ukrainian refugees
has favored the explosion of the migration problem. This mix of
political choices has created the humus that has allowed the right wing
of the AfD to grow enormously and in a worrying way, especially in the
eastern Länder of the country, creating a heavy mortgage on the federal
government.[1]It is common opinion that after January 15 when Scholz
will undergo a vote of confidence it will be inevitable to go to early
lessons given the weakness of the government and the need to negotiate
every measure with the opposition. Inevitably the political crisis in
Berlin has repercussions on the European Union and immobilizes every
action in a delicate moment such as this one constituted by the
irruption of Trumpian policies and the probable disengagement from the
war in Ukraine, unloading the cost and responsibility on the European Union.
The crisis of the German government benefits the CDU and its leader
Merz, financier and former chairman of the Supervisory Board of the
Munich branch of Blackrock Asset Management Deutschland AG. The rise of
Merz would represent the antithesis of what was the policy of Angela
Merkel. The Christian Socialist leader is an autocrat who considers
himself the most suitable interlocutor to dialogue with Trump and to
continue the policy of support for Ukraine, willing to accept Trump's
requests to place the costs of the continuation of the conflict on
Europe's shoulders.
With these positions he expects to prevail in the electoral clash, going
to the vote on February 23 without an approved budget law, but in
provisional exercise. His position on the war puts him in conflict with
Alternative fur Deutschland and therefore, in the event of victory in
the elections, he will still be forced to try to form a coalition
government of which he intends to be the hegemonic force, absolutely
capable of guiding its political choices.
Alternative für Deutschland, which at the moment is the second party in
voting intentions, ahead of the SPD, is certainly the high political
force that expects to benefit from the situation and to represent the
true opposition to the future government, thus gathering consensus
thanks to a possible further deterioration of the economic and political
situation and the growth of social unrest. AfD offers itself as a future
government alternative to the CDU.
In the political clash that is brewing, the liberals, who wanted the
crisis, risk disappearing and not exceeding the 5% threshold, while the
same is expected for the Greens who, at best, will receive a severe
punishment from the electorate for their warmongering and irresponsible
policies. Finally, the fate of the Linke is uncertain, while the radical
left party of Sahra Wagenknecht is destined to grow unless the Social
Democrats make a profound revision of their political position.[1]
This eventuality is suggested by what is happening in the world of
finance and business where dismay reigns and in uncertainty every
decision regarding investments is postponed, victims of the economic
situation and the unknowns of the economic situation, while the crisis
worsens: the spectre of recession is growing and historic companies are
closing. The conviction is increasingly gaining ground that a turning
point is needed to recover supplies of gas and oil at low cost, to
proceed with a more gradual elimination from dependence on coal, to
adopt every possible initiative to reopen markets towards Russia and China.
But to achieve this result it is necessary to end the war in Ukraine
which would allow on the one hand to avoid the haemorrhage of resources
constituted by the continuous financing of the war, to restore economic
relations with Russia and its promising internal market whose GDP is
growing by 6%, to give new impetus and competitiveness to goods produced
in Germany, especially now that the duties announced and promised by
Trump will make access to the US market even more difficult, if possible.
It should not be underestimated that the end of the war would greatly
reduce the economic and social cost of refugees, creating the conditions
for their return home and removing the deep anxiety among Germans who
see their lives complicated by being privileged refugees who benefit
from the welfare they pay for, with increasingly meager salaries and
while the economic crisis bites with the loss of jobs, in a labor market
increasingly crowded with job offers, made up of political refugees and
migrants. It should also not be underestimated that a change in the
situation in this direction would take away space from right-wing
parties and the radical left itself, opposed to the war, reducing their
political weight and electoral aspirations.
The Baku turning point
A significant number of German entrepreneurs, financiers, former prime
ministers, high-ranking officials, and managers of public companies seem
to have taken charge of these problems, having resumed contact with
Russia and were the protagonists of a meeting in Baku, the capital of
Azerbaijan, on October 20 with their Russian counterparts of the same
importance, resuming the St. Petersburg Dialogue, for the deepening of
relations between Russia and Germany established in 2001.
Buried under the rubble of the war in Ukraine, together with the special
relationship between Berlin and Moscow, interrupted by Germany in
2021-2022, now that the possible and probable defeat on the battlefield
of Ukraine will allow the conflict to be put to an end, collaboration is
regaining strength, especially since the most tempting part of Ukrainian
resources is located in the territories occupied by Russia. What
attracts German entrepreneurship and the country's finances, more than
the reconstruction of a devastated and mutilated country, as will be
what will remain of Ukraine, after the end of the war, are the mineral
resources of Donbass and the investments needed to exploit them and make
them profitable. The parallel and consequent reopening of the Russian
market would also offer Germany those economic and commercial outlets
that the nefarious Anglo-American action has caused and at the same time
would allow the relaunch of the German economy and the overcoming of its
deep crisis. As proof of the importance of the meeting, it should be
noted that among others, Mikhail Shvydkoy, special envoy of the Russian
president for international cooperation in culture, but very close to
him, regardless of the role he holds, as well as Viktor Zubkov, prime
minister of Russia in 2007-2008 and since then president of Gazprom,
took part. Among the participants from Germany, Matthias Platzeck, in
2005-2006 president of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), as
well as Prime Minister of Brandenburg in 2002-2013. Ronald Pofalla,
chief of staff of the Chancellery in the Merkel II government
(2009-2013) and CEO of German Railways in 2017-2022, was also invited to
the capital of Azerbaijan, while there are rumors of a secret delegation
that would have extended its stay with a trip to Moscow. It is certainly
no coincidence that on November 15, Putin and Scholz spoke on the phone
for an hour after two years and discussed the conditions of the parties
to reach a resolution of the Ukrainian crisis. To the German Chancellor
who called for the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian
territories, Putin responded that any negotiation cannot ignore the
situation on the battlefield, strong in the fact that the Russian army
is on the offensive along the entire Donbass front where Ukrainian
defense strongholds are collapsing one after the other, and this while
the final assault on the raiders in the Kursk area is being prepared and
the Russians are penetrating into the Sumy oblast.
Paradoxically, the obtuse and apathetic Scholz seems to have finally
understood that to overcome the crisis of representation and regain
strength, the socialist and progressive parties must abandon their
warmongering choices and any support for wars, not stopping only at
Ukraine, but intervening with decision and determination also in the war
between Israel and the Palestinians, rediscovering the value of peace
and peaceful coexistence.
Acknowledging that it operates in a multipolar world, the European Union
must necessarily commit itself to allowing a profound reorganization of
the world market and trade, creating the conditions for the necessary
collaboration that is possible between East and West and above all with
the BRICS environment, which constitutes the economic and monetary area
alternative to that of the dollar and can therefore put imperialism and
Anglo-Saxon capitalism on the ropes, its hegemonic tendencies profoundly
damaging to the interests of the European peoples that it considers,
together with China, one of its main enemies.
It is necessary that the parties of the Italian and European reformist
and progressive left also understand the lesson as soon as possible and
make the necessary corrections to their policies, before they become
victims and end up under the rubble produced by the tumultuous growth of
an increasingly aggressive and radical right that, exploiting their
contradictions and the shortcomings of political strategy that
characterize them, could, in agreement with Trumpian democracies, worsen
their crisis, to the point of destroying them.
[1]Germany in crisis, Newsletter Crescita Politica, n. 189, September 2024
The Editorial Staff
https://www.ucadi.org/2024/11/23/germania-in-crisi-al-voto/
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