In this last month, international political events seem to have
intensified, to the point that the available space and the desire toread are being put to the test. For this reason, we decided to deal with
some issues that we consider essential, limiting ourselves to providing
some evaluations to be explored in more depth later. ---- European ----
Germany ---- January 23 will see the elections for the Bundestag and
Merz's CDU together with the CSU is first in voting intentions; to
govern, it should form a new Große Koalition with the SPD, this is
because it is foreseeable that the liberals will not reach the quorum,
while the Greens are destined for a resounding defeat, also due to their
warmongering positions and there are fears that they will also reach the
quorum. The two extreme parties AfD and Sahra Wagenknecht, seem to be
excluded from any alliance. AfD, supported by Musk's endorsement, has
received official recognition as an agent of the United States in Europe
and supports re-migration and mass expulsions of migrants, the rejection
of the right to European asylum, the traditional family, although its
leader is notoriously lesbian, believes that abortion is a crime and
that women who want to have an abortion should be shown photos of their
fetuses, fights against ecological policies and for leaving the euro and
above all is against financing the war in Ukraine. Only this last point
does it have in common with the BWS because, for the rest, the program
of this party is characterized by its social imprint, given that the
rejection of the arms race, which is accompanied by opposition to
compulsory military service, provides for investing public resources in
social policy, accompanied by the imposition of a rent cap at the
federal level, a minimum wage of EUR15 (identical position to that of
the SPD), a wealth tax, and unemployment insurance. Restoration of Nord
Stream and resumption of energy traffic with Russia for gas and oil,
nationalization of electricity networks.
Austria
After the elections of September 29, the failure of negotiations for a
three-party coalition between the conservatives of the ÖVP, the social
democrats of the SPÖ and the liberals of the NEOS, Karl Nehammer,
outgoing chancellor and former leader of the Österreichische Volkspartei
(ÖVP), the Austrian People's Party, has resigned; as a result,
resistance within his party against a coalition with the FPÖ has greatly
diminished. The possibility of the chancellorship opens up for Herbert
Kickl to preside over the first government led by the right, in 80 years
of history of the Federal Republic of Austria. The leader of the Freedom
Party of Austria (FPÖ), as the winner of the last elections (29%), has
in fact been charged by the President of the Republic to form a
government coalition with the conservatives of the ÖVP. Austria, which
has similar problems to Germany, such as the economic crisis and
immigration policies, has seen the right triumph like never before by
having managed to take over the fight against the war in Ukraine and in
favor of maintaining economic relations with Russia, in the face of the
pro-Ukraine and pro-war positions of the other parties.
Romania
After the cancellation of the second round of the presidential elections
due to alleged Russian interference in the electoral campaign, of which
subsequent checks have found no evidence or confirmation, the government
is preparing new elections for May, but claims to start from the
beginning, that is, from the first electoral round to then proceed to
the run-off. There are currently highly attended street demonstrations
by voters who are asking to start from the second round, given that the
irregularities reported have not been proven. Here too, the victory of
the candidate Calin Georgescu, who had obtained the majority of votes
(22.4%), had occurred due to his firm opposition to the war in Ukraine
and to the support given to the Kiev regime, awarded contrary to the
interests of the nation, and despite the questionable positions of the
candidate on other important political and social issues. The Social
Democratic Party of the incumbent Prime Minister and the current
President of the Republic was particularly penalized for its pro-NATO
and warmongering positions. In particular, public opinion is against the
ongoing construction of numerous NATO and American military bases with
the localization of nuclear weapons.
France
After the elections to the National Assembly, tenaciously desired by
Macron, François Bayrou seems to have succeeded, at the fourth attempt,
in forming his government that will be called upon to consolidate the
state's finances, stabilize the economy, and navigate a divided
Parliament, busy trying to reassure the community institutions that are
experiencing a deep crisis due to their inadequacy in addressing the
problems and the inconsistency of the political leaders who direct it.
The government is supported by Bayrou's Democratic Movement (MoDem),
President Emmanuel Macron's party, Renaissance, and the moderate
center-right of Les Républicains, keeping out both the first party
(Rassemblement National) and the first coalition (New Popular Front) for
seats in the National Assembly. All this provided that, at any time, a
new motion of censure, which sees the votes of the far right and left
parties converge, does not decide to put an end to his attempt. It
should not be forgotten that Bayrou has the problem of getting the
budget law approved since France is still in provisional exercise. His
program is to recover 5% by relying on the support of the right, to
which he plans to make concessions on emigration and public order, but
the left is lurking. In the meantime, the President is stuck, dreaming
of interventions by the French military in Ukraine and has a brigade of
the French army exercise, simulating the defense of a territory that
resembles the surroundings of Kiev, in the hope that the emergency
situation into which the presence of French military on Ukrainian
territory would throw the country would end up advising to keep him,
even if he is increasingly shaky in his role.
Great Britain
Keir Starmer thought he was the only European leader usually in office
because he had just won elections with an overwhelming majority. But
Elon Musk took care of dashing his dreams by mounting a campaign against
him made up of fake news. The ketamine addict, a fascist and racist
South African, thought of accusing him of being "accomplice" to "mass
rapes in exchange for votes". He is referring to the years in which
Starmer was head of the Crown Prosecution Service (from 2008 to 2013),
and dealt with the abuse of minors by organised gangs of Pakistani
rapists, events that took place in Rotherham, Cornwall and Bristol,
between the 1980s and 2014; where at least 1,400 children, some as young
as 11, between 1997 and 2013, had been lured for sexual exploitation.
The crimes actually took place, but Starmer, then a magistrate, tried to
have the guilty parties convicted. If he were honest, and he is not,
Musk should say that he opposes Starmer because he is a warmonger, who
defends the interests of the City of London that supports the war in
Ukraine to destabilize Russia, against US interests and who aspired, in
agreement with Kamala Harris, to manage US Treasury bonds, taking
control of the public debt of the United States, to profit from it and
guide its political choices. But this would be contrary to the overall
interests of international capitalism and therefore he sows doubt and
calls for new elections, after having announced that he wants to give a
new leader of his trust to the right-wing party Reform UK, which he is
ready to finance but, not trusting Farage, wants the party to be led by
Tommy Robinson (Stephen Yaxley-Lennon), leader of the "English Defense
League".
Latin America
Venezuela
Although Western countries have disavowed the results of the Venezuelan
elections, President Maduro has sworn in his new mandate and this is
because the Venezuelan courts have sanctioned the regularity of the
electoral operations, while the opposition claims to have evidence of
electoral fraud. Faced with an active and vocal opposition, which uses
every means to destabilize the government, the latter is trying to
improve the economic situation of the country burdened by heavy
sanctions from the United States and other Western countries, continuing
to finance social services, education, healthcare, strong in the fact
that it can dispose of the proceeds of oil production and the role it
plays in the oil market and thanks to the alliances it enjoys with
partners such as Russia and China. The country's relations with Brazil
are also difficult, due to the dispute regarding Guayana Esequiba and
its oil and gas deposits.
China in Peru
Peruvian President Dina Boluarte and Xi Jinping have started work on the
expansion of the port of Chancay with a Chinese investment in the first
phase of the works of 1.3 billion dollars, which will become 3.5 billion
dollars once the work is finished: a mega logistics hub will be created
located in the Chancay-Ancón-Callao Special Economic Zone (a territory
in which the State that constitutes it undertakes, among other things,
to apply particular conditions of taxation and for commercial and work
contracts) 80 kilometers north of the capital which is located within
the infrastructures that are part of the Maritime Silk Road. A new
direct route with China is thus opened, capable of reducing shipping
times from 38-40 to 27 days and capable of managing between 18,000 and
21,000 TEUs and 960 reefer connections (containers of frozen products).
Once completed, the 15 docks of the port of Chancay will make it the
first to be able to receive from the continent transport ships too large
to pass through the Panama Canal. The work, financed 60% by Cosco
Shipping Ports - a state-owned giant with over 300 terminals in 38 ports
ranging from Abu Dhabi to Piraeus to Valencia to Zeebrugge - and 40% by
Volcan Compania Minera, will be built by two Beijing companies, but will
employ 70% local workers. It is true that it will take 20 years to fully
build the infrastructure, but it will impact the infrastructural and
commercial dynamics of all of Latin America, to the benefit of countries
bordering Peru, such as Ecuador and Colombia, but also Brazil, Bolivia,
Chile, all countries with which China has been able to establish equal
relations capable of holding up even in the face of political
instability in the region. The United States watches in astonishment,
while, for once, the Europeans also take action, signing the Trade
Agreement with the Mercosur countries and convening the Iberoamerican
Summit of Heads of State and Government of the countries of the Iberian
Peninsula and Latin America in Cuenca, Ecuador.
The column will continue in the next issues in order to outline a
summary overview of the international situation
The Editorial Staff
https://www.ucadi.org/2025/01/25/osservatorio-politico/
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