Economy ---- The Sánchez government often boasts about its good
macroeconomic results. At a macro level, the Spanish state is doingbetter than most European states, much more hit by the consequences of
the Ukraine War and the geopolitical race between the United States and
China. But at a general level, what is happening is impoverishment on a
large scale and very quickly. It is becoming increasingly difficult to
make ends meet and it is increasingly difficult to pay for a place to
live. What is happening is that the state is massively producing debt
and public spending is very important following the stimuli of the
pandemic, the post-pandemic and the resource crisis produced by the
aforementioned war. Therefore, there is a malaise that has economic
causes. Let's look at the most important one.
Real estate speculation is advancing unstoppably, as if it were an
attempt to extract the maximum profit as quickly as possible, as if it
were an oil well that once exhausted will not have to be reckoned with
the impacts left behind, because it will be enough to move elsewhere and
the problems resulting from the extraction will remain for the local
community. The timid attempts to regulate prices by the public
administration lack any measure of coercion, allowing them to be
completely ignored by the owners. In addition, abusive prices, the
underdevelopment of housing in Barcelona to the logic of tourism and
continuing to build apartments while other points remain empty, is not a
sustainable pace in the long term. Therefore, it is necessary to
seriously consider that in the coming years a large-scale real estate
crisis will explode again.
The consolidation of companies and groups of housing unemployment must
be considered not as a marginal issue, but as the slow and progressive
legitimization that allows the development of an almost paramilitary
apparatus, a fascist militia at the service of banks, vulture funds and
families of the bourgeoisie and aristocracies of the Spanish State.
The landowner issue in the country has moved from the countryside to the
city, but it has not lost its character of social war in which property
is worth more than the human being. Influencers who give advice on how
to invest in apartments are the surreal melody of a context in which
instead of opportunities, what abounds is the increasing difficulty of
being able to have a decent life.
Institutional policy
The Pedro Sánchez government is consolidated, except for its lack of
political support. Lately, all politics has been done so that the far
right does not win, and so every election is a call to stop fascism.
With this blackmail, the socialists then implement neoliberal and
authoritarian policies (towards migrants, for example) that cause a lot
of disappointment among people on the left. With a weak and divided
Popular Party, the far right has become the opposition. It controls
almost all the state's estates: judicial, media, police, business and
political. And this far right politics is divided between a sector of
the PP leaning towards the extreme right (like Díaz Ayuso or Moreno
Bonilla), a VOX that has lost momentum and the new party of Alvise
Pérez, which carries Milei's program and attracts a part of the youth.
The result is that SUMAR does not dare to challenge President Sánchez
for fear of breaking the Government and going to new elections, which
could give him a PP-VOX coalition. SUMAR continues to compromise with
all the decisions against the people that the PSOE makes. In this way,
the message and prestige that the left may have fades and the polls
indicate the foreseeable decline of this force. As we have said, lacking
a working-class left, the progressive left no longer connects with the
people except as a possibility that the far-right will not win and
always acts as if it were not in the Government.
In Catalonia, the breakup of the independence movement has placed the
Government of the Generalitat in the hands of the PSC. In addition, a
similar situation has also been experienced in Barcelona. The crisis of
the independence movement has led to the emergence of a new far-right
force such as Aliança Catalana. Perhaps for some people it has been a
surprise, but these opinions against immigration, with discourses of
order and security and defending private property in the occupations
were already very present among the ranks of Convergència i Unió and its
successor parties. Now we are facing a global wave of hate speech
through the networks and an authoritarian political option has also
taken root in Catalonia as has happened in many other territories. To
top it off, the options further to the left (Comuns and Esquerra
Independentista) are also in crisis. The IS has suffered a split (the
MS) and the Comuns are quite discredited due to their pacts with the
Socialists. At least in Catalonia the real left, the one on the street,
is starting to be outside the institutions but is not yet articulated in
any way.
Furthermore, the PSOE government in Barcelona city with its alignment
with the Generalitat has decided to return to a tough hand with social
movements trying to demonstrate to the bourgeoisie its strong commitment
to defending its interests. Thus we have witnessed the hardening of
police actions in a sinister plan called "Endreça Barcelona". This
augurs the arrival of a time of confrontations with police forces
willing to use strategies (drones, mass identifications with racial or
class patterns, encapsulations...) that will force us to use other forms
of struggle and resistance different from those used until now.
Social and union movements
Only the housing movement, the Palestine movement, the ecosocial
movement and sometimes the union movement stand out. There is a lot of
dependence on the spectacle of social networks, waiting for likes
instead of really making an impact.
The development of the housing movement in recent years is directly
related to this increasingly unsustainable social problem and, at the
same time, to the prominence assumed by the reproductive spaces of life,
thanks to the attention paid by the feminist movement. It is no
coincidence that it is common to see a strong presence of women, not
only in the mobilizations, assuming many roles and with strong
intervention and leadership of the struggle.
While on the one hand the MxH can increasingly count on greater
organizational and fighting capacity, as well as strategic capacity,
there are still important challenges to overcome.
This year it has been clear that no reform or institutional action can
have a future if it is isolated from a deep popular mobilization that
puts both the State and the real estate companies and owners between a
rock and a hard place. Negotiation, institutional pressure and proposed
laws must be presented with thousands of people on the streets and
organized in their blocks and neighborhoods.
A mass movement can only truly be constituted with strength and broad
participation when the culture of assemblyism, deeply rooted in the
majority of spaces, groups, organizations and movements in Catalonia, is
overcome. It is necessary to dismantle the perspective of the struggle
for political power that wants to make the improbable leap from localism
to the sole concern for instances of political direction, not to mention
a certain obsession with leadership in the absence of a base that acts
as a subject.
Sectarianism and avant-gardeism have also emerged with a certain
insistence in the last period, under the guise of new proposals that now
promise to lead us to revolution but that have dedicated a good part of
their time and energy to fighting other realities of the movement, with
a complete lack of scruples, playing only under their own rules that can
be modified according to their own convenience.
The lowering of tone that has been forced with these practices cannot
mean a break, since they are just waiting for the opportunity to
manifest themselves again. There is no democracy or socialism without
ethics, and it is important to remember that sectarianism and
avant-garde are not the property of one or another organization, but can
affect any group, without ideological distinction. For this reason, it
is essential to work on ethics and the militant style.
In this environment we must highlight the partial victories that are
being obtained in companies or sectors where people organize and propose
real struggles for tangible goals. Both the CGT and the CNT provide
evidence of this. In addition, these two unions are growing in
membership and militancy, consolidating themselves as mass organizations
to be taken into account in the future. All in all, this will depend a
lot on their capacity to weave alliances, share tools and walk together,
with a strategic vision far removed from sectarianism.
International
Since the middle of the last decade, the so-called "alt-right" has
managed to turn the cultural and ideological battle for cyberspace
around. Central to this conquest was the control of social networks by a
new neo-reactionary Silicon Valley elite. Characters like Zuckemberg,
Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, among others, consolidated themselves as the
main references of a place that was previously the "homeland" of
libertarians or well-thinking liberals. In that internet of the 90s and
2000s there was a lot of space for left-wing ideas. That ended in this
era between 2015 and 2020.
Situations such as Black Lives Matter, Donald Trump's rise to power in
2016, the pandemic or the Ukraine War have turned the internet into an
endless chain of fake news and conspiracy theories that have
fundamentally changed Western values. Currently, practically all
European countries have a relatively strong parliamentary far-right, and
in some states they are the first or second force. The rooting of these
ideas among CIS men and also among the new generations is particularly
worrying.
The key points of the neo-reactionary offensive are specific:
highlighting the most ridiculous aspects of the behavior of people with
liberal or left-wing ideas. This has been called "wokism" and is the
enemy that is easy to hate for the right and people with conservative
tendencies. That they defend rights (of women, racialized people ,
LGBTI+ people, refugees, indigenous peoples, etc.) is completely
secondary, what matters is pointing them out as "cancel culture" and
contrary to "Western values". And they do this in order to generate
internal conflict and divide society. The creation of enemies or
elements to hate has given the far right a lot of visibility and has
been projected thanks to social networks, as well as thanks to the
collaboration of the most mainstream media that buy their discourse for
pure sensationalism. The presence of reactionary capitalists on the
boards of directors or in the very management of the mass media should
also be noted.
This growing division of society also has a direct correlation with the
economic situation. The presence of progressive governments in many
countries has not prevented the exponential increase in inequality
around the world. Because they do not break with neoliberalism,
progressive or leftist rhetoric clashes with the increasingly
complicated reality experienced by those at the bottom. Resentment
towards power and disappointment with the left are the order of the day,
leaving the door open to solutions considered "anti-system" of a fascist
and reactionary nature. The danger is obvious, as we have seen in the
Italian, French, German or North American elections.
If the entire West is falling into a sewer from which it is difficult to
get out, the rest of the world is in a completely different place. Every
day we witness news that more countries are moving closer to the BRICS+
bloc. At the end of October, its international summit was held in Kazan
(Russia), which ended with the incorporation of new states into the bloc
(such as Indonesia), as well as new economic and political treaties. Any
look at this bloc will see an economic dynamism full of optimism that
hardly fits with its political systems, often authoritarian with
curtailed civil liberties.
However, even though the economic or geopolitical center of the planet
is shifting towards Asia, it is also within the same turbo-capitalist
paradigm of our time. The arrival of mass consumerism to new populations
will have a very negative impact on the future of the planet, which is
heading straight into the abyss of climate change and the chronic lack
of vital resources for humanity.
At the same time, the West is waiting for the wars in Ukraine, Palestine
and Lebanon, which have brought about the final discrediting of all the
supposed democratic values it defended. The intolerable defense of the
State of Israel contributes to alienating emerging states, which is also
contributed to by economic sanctions against states that do not comply
with Western wishes. And we are not talking about states that sponsor
terrorism, but states that trade with China or Russia and do not want to
stop doing so. The structural injustice of these sanctions and the
double standard of measurement with other states that violate
international conventions (such as Israel) means that the global
consensus of the post-war world has now ended and that we are in the
middle of a race between the blocs to find new allies.
However, it must be taken into account that the genocidal Israeli
offensive against Gaza has come close to provoking a regional war, as
happened in early October 2024. Israel has entered a drift to carry out
military attacks against the entire so-called "Axis of Resistance"
(Hezbollah militias in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq, Syria, Iran and
Yemen) whose response could escalate the conflict considerably, given
this Axis' alliance with Russia and Putin's desire to make the West pay
for the war in Ukraine.
The situation completely turned around in December with the collapse of
the authoritarian regime of Al Assad, which controlled much of Syria. In
a few weeks, the Syrian Arab state collapsed, demonstrating its feet of
clay. Now the new regime is made up of "rebels" of a jihadist nature and
have clearly placed themselves at the service of the West. Even so, the
country is divided between several factions, among which the AANES or
Rojava stands out.
This global realignment is catching the West in the worst possible
conditions. First, for the last year of the United States. The
presidential elections have virtually left the country on "autopilot"
until this January. American policies are run by bureaucracy and the
work of federal secretariats and not by the Government. This prevents
decisive policies from being made by the White House, which was more
concerned with the November elections. For its part, the European Union
is increasingly discredited as an undemocratic and excessively vertical
institution. The pacts at the top between popular, social democrat and
liberal MEPs make it virtually impossible to have an economic policy
that does not involve the most blatant neoliberalism and a foreign
policy independent of the interests of the United States.
All these factors, and others, have led to Donald Trump's overwhelming
victory in the November elections in the United States. With a crude
campaign and an unprecedented media and cyber war to spread pure
propaganda mixed with fake news, the Republicans managed to sweep the
polls. Now, with Trump in power, the United States wants to demonstrate
strength and from the very beginning everything has been threats and
forceful measures: deporting illegal immigrants, repealing measures that
favor minorities, raising tariffs on competing or uncooperative states
with its interests, incorporating Greenland, the Panama Canal or
Canada... All this has sent the Western political class into a state of
shock, which is trying to adapt to the new situation. Europe still does
not know how to take Trump's statements and does not know if they are
cards to negotiate or if he is completely serious.
And contexts like Germany's, with a social democratic government totally
subservient to NATO policies, to the point of knowing who was
responsible for the sabotage of the North Stream gas pipeline and not
making any complaints, leave the previous hegemonic institutional policy
in a very bad state. This gas pipeline was important, because it was a
direct line to Russian gas. Now the gas has to be imported directly from
the United States and arrives by ship, and is paid for much more
expensively. This has repercussions on the powerful German industry,
which is currently in a serious crisis. Not only that, but aggressive
Western policies against China are also harming German car manufacturers
in the face of increasingly intense control over Chinese raw materials
that are essential for making cars. Trump's victory led to the advance
of the elections in Germany, to be held in February. The far-right AfD
party immediately soared in the polls and technocrats like Elon Musk
have supported it. We don't know if it will win, what we do know is that
the social democracy will lose the government due to the great discredit
it has fallen into.
This brings us to the section on dissent and social movements. Speaking
of Europe, this panorama gains weight in primary anti-fascism. The "They
Will Not Pass". Mobilizations against fascists and the far right have
gained a lot of strength in Great Britain, France and Germany. In this
sense, the anti-racist movement is incorporating many people from
non-white communities, often marginalized and criminalized. After the
hate riots in Great Britain, we have been able to observe the potential
of collaboration between communities. Labour has appeased everything,
talking about extremists on both sides, as if it were a fight between
urban tribes. As you can see, Labour and social democrats always play
the role of the party of order and the right is becoming more incendiary
every day. This role of order also contributes to the discredit of
liberal democracy among the working classes, regardless of their
ideology. The problem is that without a visible revolutionary popular
power, those who capitalize on the unrest could be the far right or
mafias based on migrant national communities.
Another movement on the rise in Europe is the environmental movement.
The mobilizations, also in France and Germany, are very massive. Climate
change is affecting everyone and there is a part of the population that
is very aware of this issue. While part of the movement is committed to
street activism, blockades and intentional community, there is a
narrative that is gaining strength in the face of the evidence of the
climate disaster that we already have: droughts and record temperatures
during the months of June, July and August, fires and floods in September.
In the rest of the world, there is a progressive realignment of the
oppressed peoples in struggle with the theses of democratic
confederalism. In recent years, there have been approaches to these
theories by the rebels of Balochistan, Myanmar, Papua or the Amazigh
people. On the contrary, when we talk about socialism or Marxism, it is
always to apply social democratic and socio-liberal policies (but with
the hammer and sickle), as has just happened in Sri Lanka.
Challenges and opportunities
Several lessons can be learned from the popular camp and political
organizations, based on what has recently taken place in the world.
In Europe, the bourgeoisie will never willingly let a truly left-wing
option govern. Imbued with authoritarian drift and permanent
accumulation, they would rather make pacts with the far right than allow
a return to the neoliberal model. We have seen an example of this in
France, where the victory of the Nouveau Front Populaire has been
bridged by Macron.
Peoples on the move are capable of making paradigm shifts. We have
experienced this this summer. In the midst of the racist pogrom in Great
Britain, supported by the entire Western far right and fueled by Elon
Musk himself, the mobilization of the people was essential to stop the
disaster. The problem, precisely, was having a Labour government that
stopped all social protest by equating racists with resistance.
Throughout the West there is a strong fatigue towards the great
capitalist accumulation (or theft) of vulture funds. If a decade ago
they appropriated unsaleable real estate assets, causing the current
rise in rent, today they are appropriating significant pieces of large
European companies. They already have decision-making power that can
bring down governments. Obviously, this situation is very easy to use to
mobilize people.
As a result of the previous point, people are also fed up with
macro-events (Olympic Games, Copa America, etc.) that are disruptive to
the daily life of society, and that are toys in the hands of the rich.
The fragility of democratic systems is evident everywhere: governments
hanging by threads, woven from complex pacts and alliances. Like a house
of cards, all it takes is one piece to fail for the whole thing to
collapse. Internal tensions between governing partners are cracks that
can grow until the entire edifice collapses. And this is where the power
of the street can become decisive.
The rise of the far right and authoritarian governments in the West
should ignite an anti-fascist resistance that would be very positive if
it fed back into the resistance to the extractive capitalism of
rentierism or macro events. In the same sense, it would not be ruled out
that the political measures of the new right-wing governments do so much
harm that they provoke a new wave of indignation.
https://embat.info/conjuntura-2025
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A - I N F O S N E W S S E R V I C E
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