Reflecting on the Arctic offers us two possibilities: the first is to
bring to light an issue that has been forgotten for too many years,almost set aside from debates and general attention, but which is
becoming and will become increasingly vital for the strategic interests
of world powers; the second is to understand how Trump's statements on
the acquisition of Greenland and the annexation of Canada, even if
apparently picturesque and meaningless, are instead phases of a very
concrete game that is being played in that region for the control of
global balances.
The Arctic, in size, is five times the Mediterranean Sea; it is the
region that is located north of the Polar Circle, and has its center in
the Arctic Ocean. It connects three continents, America, Asia and Europe
and is surrounded by a belt of land belonging to Russia (which occupies
about half of the Arctic coast), Alaska (United States), Canada,
Greenland, Iceland and Scandinavia. Four million people live there, most
of them in Russia. The Arctic is a region that opens up unprecedented
economic opportunities: energy experts calculate that in the Arctic Sea
area lies 13% of the planet's untouched oil resources, and 30% of its
gas. In the Arctic there are 22% of the world's energy resources, 2/3 of
the gas imported into Europe comes from here. This area holds 15% of
rare earths. Beyond natural resources, the Arctic is fundamental not
because it contains something, but because it separates something:
waterways as wealth and a source of power. The transport of goods, 80%
of their volume and 70% of their value, takes place by sea. The number
of ships transiting the Arctic between 2013 and 2019 grew by 25%, while
the estimate between 2040 and 2050 marks an increase of between 94 and 98%.
But it is climate change that plays a decisive role: in fact, with the
progressive melting of the Arctic sea ice, new scenarios are opening up
in the region, both for what concerns the environment, for the
possibilities of exploitation, and, above all, for the new maritime
routes. In fact, if global warming continues in this way, these routes
will be passable, without the hindrance of the ice, foreseeably by 2050.
The control of the polar routes thus becomes of strategic interest.
Currently there are three: the Northwest Passage, the most practicable,
is a naval route that connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, passing
through the Canadian Arctic archipelago within the Arctic Ocean. The
Northeast Passage is a naval route that, starting from the North Sea,
continues in the Arctic Ocean along the coast of Siberia and, through
the Bering Strait and the Bering Sea, reaches the Pacific Ocean. The
Transpolar Route cuts the North Pole and reaches the Pacific, crossing
the Arctic: a less passable route due to the greater presence of ice.
These routes, compared to the two international corridors in use today,
the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal, involve an average saving of 13
days of navigation and lower costs for a total of 2.5 million dollars
per route.
In addition to the economic reason, already significant in itself, the
control of the Arctic territory, especially Canada and Greenland, must
be placed in the context of military strategic importance, being the
closest geographical point between Russia and America. In the area,
NATO, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, doubled its military
activities from 2015 to 2020, while Russia has increasingly consolidated
its presence, with 81% of nuclear weapons. With the presence of nuclear
submarines, 90 ships and thirty-five military sites, the Arctic is the
starting point for the first response in the event of a nuclear attack.
The strategic interest is notable, considering that a considerable part
of the Russian GDP (15%), and 80% of the gas come from this territory.
22% of Russian exports depend on the Arctic.
Canada's interest in the Arctic can be seen in four points: the
accessibility and control of the north-west maritime route, the
strategic military position, or rather the geographical proximity to
Russia and its Arctic nuclear installations, the most technologically
developed of the Russian nuclear apparatus, the mineral resources and,
lastly, the passage of the North Fiber computer data fiber that connects
Japan with Northern Europe. This is the closest point for the cable
transit from east to west. The main goal, for Ottawa, is to make the
Northwest Passage an increasingly viable route between the Pacific and
the Atlantic. On this route, known since the first explorations of the
Arctic, there is an ongoing territorial dispute between Canada and the
United States. The latter consider the Northwest Passage to be
international waters, while Canada considers them to be Canadian
territorial waters. The Northwest Passage is currently a cost issue, the
ice prevents full accessibility, therefore the use of icebreakers
becomes indispensable. The Canadians have 40, the USA has only 2, hence
Trump's pressing interest in Canada, or rather its Arctic facilities.
The other major US interest in Canada is military. Canada and Alaska are
the outpost for territorial defense through the NORAD system (North
American Aerospace Defense Command). The other strategic aspect is the
Far North Fiber project, which will become the point of passage for a
new submarine internet cable, which will connect Scandinavia to Japan,
avoiding bottlenecks such as the Suez Canal and the South China Sea.
There are 400 cables under the sea that cross the seas for 1.3 million
km, on which global communications, financial transactions, scientific
cooperation, military operations, control of satellites and missile
systems depend. The Far North Fiber will connect Japan with Europe for
about 16,000 km, compared to the current 26,000 km of connection through
the circumnavigation of Africa. A route that is not only shorter, but
that avoids "sensitive points" of the globe such as the Indian Ocean and
the Gulf areas, currently at high geopolitical risk and conflict. The
other point of attention of the new American administration is
Greenland, a territory belonging to the Kingdom of Denmark,
approximately 7 times larger than Italy, with a population of 56,000
inhabitants, as many as Savona. In 1979, Greenland became autonomous
from Denmark. The real wealth is represented by rare earths, potentially
crucial on the global economic chessboard (and we noticed this in the
negotiations between the USA and Ukraine). The estimated reserves range
from seventh to second place in the world ranking. The territory is of
absolute strategic importance for the USA: it controls three of the
accesses to the Arctic Sea, therefore it is fundamental for the passage
of submarines; a strategic radar sighting point behind the USA for
ballistic missile attacks, it competes with Russia for control of the
Northern waters; it is the narrowest diaphragm between the USA and
Eurasia. In conclusion, we are also witnessing in this part of the
planet a global competition for the division of resources, with the
inevitable political and especially military tensions. But the most
immediate problem is another: the progressive melting of the Arctic ice
opens up new scenarios in the region for the exploitation of resources
that have remained inaccessible to humanity for millennia, accelerating
a model of production and consumption that is both the cause and effect
of the climate crisis, and triggering an endless spiral. The Arctic,
like other situations, gives us reflections and opportunities to think,
propose and organize different models of coexistence between humans and
between living things.
Daniele Ratti
https://umanitanova.org/lartico-e-le-sue-risorse-corsa-alloro-in-canada-e-groenlandia/
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