WORLD WORLDWIDE EUROPE EU - euobserver daily - Monday 2 june 2025.

 

Good morning,

The results of the Polish presidential run-off were too close to call from exit polls on Sunday (1 June), highlighting deep divisions in Polish society.

The pro-EU liberal Rafał Trzaskowski came first, with between 50.17 percent to 50.3 percent, beating his nationalist-conservative rival, Karol Nawrocki, according to polls at 9 PM.

But these had a margin of error of two percent, meaning Poland and Europe would have to wait till Monday to find out who will be the next head of state in the EU's fourth-largest country, even though both sides in Poland claimed victory on Sunday.

If Trzaskowski does win in the end, expect smooth government together with his Civic Platform party ally, prime minister Donald Tusk, and a rollback of anti-abortion laws and dodgy judicial changes put in place by the former nationalist-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party.

With Nawrocki, expect presidential vetoes of "woke" Civic Platform reforms and harsh anti-migrant rhetoric - including against Ukrainian refugees.

It's not as drastic a divide as the recent Romanian election, which almost put a far-right pro-Kremlin candidate in power.

But it is another battle in the culture wars on both sides of the Atlantic, pitting rightwing populists against more liberal establishment parties.

And Polish voters were seized by the race, with a record high turnout of 55 percent.

Older (over 40), rural voters were more turned on by Nawrocki, while younger (under 30) urban voters had favoured Trzaskowski, mirroring the split between PiS and Civic Platform party support.

Meanwhile, Trzaskowski was fighting not just against Nawrocki, but also against two far-right candidates (who had lost in the first round, but who backed Nawrocki in the run-offs) and against the US.

"He [Nawrocki] needs to be the next president of Poland," said US homeland security secretary Kristi Noem five days before the Polish run-off.

But whatever the final outcome of Sunday's vote, the fact that almost half of Polish people have wedded themselves to PiS' melancholy, bitter, and inward looking ideology makes me realise that my native country, these days, while not a bad place, is nothing special or heroic anymore.

- Andrew Rettman, foreign affairs editor

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