
Good morning,
The Ursula von der Leyen's European Commission has unveiled a new round of unprecedented measures intended to “put pressure” on Israel — namely suspending its EU free-trade perks under its association agreement, and blacklisting extremist Israeli ministers and settlers.
But as is often the case in Brussels, the realpolitik lies with EU member states. Berlin and Rome hold the key to reaching the qualified majority needed to suspend preferential trade for Israel, while blacklisting extremist Israeli ministers and settlers requires unanimity, making it less realistic.
Even though other Israeli-friendly EU states (Hungary, Austria, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic) have also rejected any meaningful action in the name of continuous dialogue, Germany and Italy remain the main holdouts. A shift by either would change the picture significantly.
Von der Leyen recently used “painful” to describe the inability of the 27-nation bloc to respond to Israel’s violations of international law in Gaza and the West Bank. And while it is undeniable that the EU is divided, and that political positions may be difficult to change (despite increasing public outrage), the commission's own failure to propose targeted measures until now (beyond the partial suspension of Israel in the EU’s Horizon programme) should not be easily forgotten.
While concrete action is almost absent, symbolic gestures are multiplying.
Take the recognition of Palestine, which will be all over headlines next week. More and more European countries are moving to recognise the state of Palestine on the 1967 borders, in line with international law. What might be framed as a catalyst for peace has, in practice, amounted to little more than symbolism.
Talks remain stalled, recriminations are endless, and the reality on the ground is dictated by expanding Israeli settlements. And here stands the elephant in the room. Without tackling Israel’s illegal colonial-settlement project, which aims to “bury the idea of a Palestinian state” in the exact words of Israel’s Bezalel Smotrich, Europe’s actions seem to lack any substance.
For decades, Europe has maintained the rhetoric of allegedly supporting a two-state solution while extending preferential trade, economic, and cultural ties to Israel. Sadly, recognition of Palestine is belated.
Today in Madrid, Spain’s Pedro Sánchez could try to push Friedrich Merz to back some action, even if only symbolic. But what is clear is that with no action, the EU and its member states risk losing even more geopolitical relevance by remaining indifferent to the realities on the ground.
- Elena Sánchez Nicolás, editor-in-chief
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