Good morning,
Germany has signalled it would move on Israel sanctions by the next time EU leaders meet, in Denmark in some two weeks' time.
"We will discuss these issues again next week at the federal cabinet level. I assume that we will then have a position at the informal council meeting on 1 October in Copenhagen that will also be supported by the entire German government," said the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, in Madrid, on Thursday (18 September).
Perhaps the Germans won't be able to agree just yet, but it sounds to me as if the diplomatic clock in Europe just struck midnight for Israel. They've run out of time to keep doing gross harm with full impunity and their last serious, important friends here are turning away from them.
One option being discussed was a "negative road map - if you don't do that by such and such a date, we impose this sanction, if you don't do that by the next date, next sanction", an EU diplomat said.
Diplomats also expected Germany's first step would be to agree sanctions on extremist Israeli ministers, rather than trade.
But even if that disappoints Palestinians, and if it's too little too late, it is still huge: Israel has lost Europe.
Because without Germany on its side, Italy and Austria will walk away too, several diplomats predicted, while Israel can lobby Bulgaria, the Czechs, or Hungary as much as they want — the EU will find ways to bypass their little vetoes (as they're doing on Russia just now).
And even if the Israeli sanctions were to be minimalist, incremental, and reversible, they would still be indicative of a ruined relationship - an image of Israel that fell from the highest moral height in Germany, to shatter in the rubble of Gaza. That can't be undone. It's a historic change and price to pay.
- Andrew Rettman, foreign-affairs editor
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