Introduction ---- In the various in-depth analyses we have produced in
recent months, there is a common shift across all the situationsexamined: from a phase characterized by colonialist occupation policies
to an imperialist phase. In this context, the colonized state "frees"
itself from the direct control of a stronger state, but becomes a
battleground between imperialist states that act to assert their
dominance, influencing the political and social context of the country
subjected to their actions. ---- If ethnic tensions are one of the key
elements of the imperialist powers' destabilization efforts, the role of
military power is fundamental in diverting those internal political
processes that can redefine national strategic interests and
international balances of power.
The crisis zone we will consider in this text is that of the former
Burma or Myanmar (a name imposed by the military junta after the 1988
coup d'état following student uprisings). Myanmar, recently struck by a
devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake with its epicenter 16 km northwest
of Saigang, which killed 10,000 people and injured thousands, does not
escape the fate common to many countries liberated from colonial rule.
From independence to the alternation between military dictatorship and
democratic openings
After gaining independence from Great Britain in 1948, the country was
governed democratically until the first military coup in 1962 led by
General Ne Win, who established a dictatorial regime that lasted until
2010. At that time, among the groups opposing Burma's military
dictatorship, the most important was the Communist Party of Burma, which
was legal for only three years (1945–1948). Having sided with the
Chinese at the time of the split in the international movement, the CPB
launched a guerrilla war that lasted until the 1990s, when military
repression forced the party's leaders to flee to China.
After the student riots that began on August 8, 1988 (hence the name
"8888 Uprising"), Ne Win resigned and martial law was declared,
resulting in thousands of student deaths. Meanwhile, General Saw Maung
staged another coup.
In 1990, free elections were held for the first time in thirty years.
Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party won a
majority in the Constituent Assembly, but the State Law and Order
Restoration Council (SLORC), backed by the military, refused to
relinquish power, overthrowing the popular assembly and arresting Aung
San Suu Kyi and other NLD leaders.
Under pressure from international sanctions, the military junta was
forced to hold a constitutional referendum in 2008 that approved the new
Constitution, which opposition parties declared undemocratic because it
reserved 25% of the seats in Parliament for the armed forces.
New elections were held in 2010, and the military-backed party, the
Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), won 80%. The elections
were contested due to massive fraud, which was also reported by
international observers.
After the elections, a new political phase began for Myanmar,
characterized by the granting of several reforms, such as labor laws
that guaranteed the formation of trade unions and the permission to
strike, and the easing of censorship on freedom of the press.
In April 2012, by-elections to the parliament were held, with the
majority of seats held by the military. The NLD won 43 of the 46 seats
up for election.
The last general elections, before the 2021 military coup, were held in
2015 and saw the landslide victory of Aung San Suu Kyi's party, which
won a majority of seats in the parliament in Naypyidaw.
The military coup and the popular uprising against the coup
On February 1, 2021, the fourth coup d'état in the last 60 years took
place. It followed the results of the 2020 parliamentary elections,
which marked a defeat for the military and the triumph of the NLD, which
increased its number of seats (920 out of 1,170) while maintaining an
absolute majority in both houses of parliament. The coup was led by the
head of the Burmese armed forces, General Min Aung Hlaing, who declared
a year-long state of emergency.
According to the British weekly The Economist, the most likely reason
for the coup is that the most powerful generals within the Tatmadaw (the
official name of Myanmar's armed forces) felt threatened by the new
government and needed to take necessary "countermeasures," fearing that
the new executive would begin enacting laws aimed at breaking their
monopoly on the economy. The generals reportedly began targeting the
jade mining sector. According to a 2015 report by Global Witness, the
market was worth $31 billion in 2014, approximately 50% of Myanmar's
gross domestic product. And those who gained the greatest wealth were
the former junta generals, including, according to Osservatorio Diritti,
"the family of Ohn Myint, the new interim president appointed after the
coup, famous for his violent repression of anti-government
demonstrations led by Buddhist monks in 2007."
The uprising against the coup was immediate and took on mass
proportions. It should be noted that the democratic mobilization against
the military regime has a history. As noted above, in 1988 there was a
massive student movement that shook the dictatorship, resulting in a
brutal repression that resulted in over three thousand deaths. A second
mass mobilization took place in 2007. Known as the "Saffron Revolution,"
a reference to the robes worn by the Buddhist monks who led the protest,
the protests erupted over the sudden increase in the price of gasoline
and food due to the cessation of government subsidies, at the suggestion
of the International Monetary Fund. The mobilizations, supported
internationally by the U.S. State Department and several
non-governmental organizations, achieved their goal of a liberal opening.
However, the massive anti-regime uprising that erupted against the new
coup surpassed previous mobilizations in terms of its breadth of
involvement and social composition.
The protests have spread immensely. The younger generations are
especially at the forefront of the protests, having reached
unprecedented levels of mobilization thanks to social media. But the
working class, in the textile, mining, transportation, education, and
healthcare sectors, has also played a key role in protesting the
military dictatorship, manifested through mass strikes.
It should be noted that these spontaneous actions were not led by the
NLD (National League for Democracy) party, the CRPH (Committee of
Parliament Rapporteur), or their supporters, but rather established
autonomous resistance structures and forms of mutual support to
guarantee the essential services (healthcare, education, etc.) that the
military had suspended.
Meanwhile, the military's response was based on an unprecedented
intensification of the repression of the protesters, which isolated the
coup-plotting military with the loss of their allies, the support and
participation in the protests of the country's seven main ethnic
minorities (in reality, there are 135 ethnic groups present in Myanmar)
and the main armed groups of reference.
The violent repression by the coup plotters contributed to the growth of
armed resistance, particularly that of ethnic armies (25 armed factions
are currently operating), and fueled the civil war.
Today, Myanmar is formally governed by the State Administrative Council
(SAC), but a National Unity Government (the NUG enjoys popular support
in Myanmar and is recognized by the European Union. It also has
representative offices in the United States, the United Kingdom, and
South Korea), composed of exiled oppositionists and guerrilla groups,
continues the resistance with the People's Defense Forces (the PDF is a
loosely structured group of resistance cells established by the NUG).
Only 21% of the territory is under military control, concentrated in the
most populous cities. Due to losses and declining morale, the junta
introduced conscription in 2024, prompting many to flee. On January 31,
2025, the regime extended the state of emergency for another six months.
From the altar to the dust? Aung San Sun Kyi, a controversial leader.
The awarding of the most controversial Nobel Prize, the Nobel Peace
Prize, in 1991 to the Burmese activist and politician Aung San Sun Kyi
(1945 -), certainly did not cause any scandal.
A founder of the National League for Democracy (LND), she spent many
years in prison and under house arrest as a direct result of her
commitment to human rights and against the military dictatorship, which,
following the 2021 coup, forced her to resign and remanded her in
custody, which is still in effect.
So far, so good, or at least a seemingly flawless regime.
But then, in 2016, the UN took a dive into the idyll by accusing the
country of nothing less than "complicity in the extermination of the
Rohingya"!
A large Islamic minority currently spread across eight countries, this
population has suffered, since 2017, one of the most ferocious
repressions, increasingly marked by massacres and inhumane conditions in
refugee camps in Bangladesh, so much so that it has risen, according to
United Nations reports, to the rank of one of the most persecuted
minorities in the world.
And it should not be forgotten that this situation, enriched by endless
violations and restrictions, has persisted in Myanmar for about half a
century.
Well, and to conclude this corollary dedicated to our country, it seems
clear that the universal judgment of laziness, at the very least, which
concerns it in this moment (starting from 2017) and constituted by what
is unanimously recognized as genocide.
Therefore, without delving into adventurous psychologisms, rehashing
Arendtian analyses of the differences between Power and Violence, or
even pretending to remind anyone of the Aristotelian reductionism that
ultimately sees Politics and Ethics as coinciding, we simply want to
emphasize, as anarchists, that it is in the quid that the devil lurks.
Therefore, obstacles and solutions, limitations and merits, merits and
faults are not to be found in the superstructure's rulers and in their
integrity or value-laden nature... but rather in the superstructure itself!
As extensively documented in this text, interests (material,
geopolitical, class-based) and realpolitik are harmoniously and
inextricably linked, sometimes levitating to the altars, sometimes
tumbling into the dust, the subjects involved.
Imperialist interference
Since the coup, the military junta (SAC) has faced a series of sanctions
and diplomatic pressure from Western superpowers. The Burmese
government, isolated from the West, has had no choice but to increase
its dependence on Russia, China, and India. Furthermore, the fragile
economy during the post-coup era has led to a balance of payments
crisis. The SAC has turned to the BRICS economic bloc to resolve the
dollar crisis, for support, and potential membership. The SAC has
implemented a process of de-dollarization by allowing and promoting the
use of the yuan and other currencies for imports and exports.
The main imperialist powers that have direct or indirect interests in
Myanmar are Russia, China, India and the United States.
Russia is interested in the Southern Seas due to their
geostrategic/economic importance and is reportedly aiming to build a
naval base in Myanmar to expand its sphere of political and economic
influence, in exchange for ground support with its own troops and
military and economic aid to the coup junta.
In this regard, Russia has established military cooperation with the
Tatmadaw since the coup. As stated by Alexander Mikheev, CEO of the
Russian state agency Rosoboronexport—the sole exporter of military
technology and equipment in the Federation—Myanmar maintains privileged
relations with the Russian state. This is evident from the delivery of
Sukhoi Su-30SME multi-role fighters and the sale of the Pantsir missile
defense system. Current negotiations must be complemented by past ones,
including the supply of an unspecified number of Mi-24 Hind7 attack and
troop transport helicopters.
The close military cooperation between the two countries also opens the
door for Russian mining companies to operate in the country. According
to Interfax, Rosgeo, the Russian state-owned geoscience exploration and
research holding company, may begin mineral exploration in the region.
From October 11 to 13, 2023, Myanmar's Energy Minister Ko Ko Lwin will
be in Moscow for the Russian Energy Week International Forum. There, he
discussed with Rosgeo executives the potential of using AI technology to
extract oil from low-potential layers and old oil wells. Prior to his
visit to Russia, Ko Ko Lwin hosted Anatoly Bulochnikov, head of the
Russia-Myanmar Association for Friendship and Cooperation, in Naypyitaw
on September 26 for discussions on potential cooperation in the oil and
gas industry.
Ko Ko Lwin also met with a delegation from Roscongress Investment-RCI,
led by an official identified by junta media as Segey Vladimirovish, to
discuss the construction of an oil refinery in Myanmar, an oil port
capable of handling large tankers, and accelerating cooperation in the
energy sector.
In May 2024, Myanmar officially announced its choice of Russia to build
and operate the port of Dawei. However, the port of Dawei is vital to
China because it would avoid the Strait of Malacca and allow it to
develop new routes away from its rival India.
In the first week of March 2025, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing visited
Moscow and signed an agreement with Russia on the development of a 110
MW nuclear reactor in Myanmar.
China is Myanmar's largest foreign investor and main trading partner.
Burma's economic future, regardless of the outcome of the civil war,
currently rests on Chinese investments linked to the Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) and the Maritime Silk Road (MSR), which, once
completed, would connect China to Europe.
Given that the 2021 coup halted nearly all of Beijing's planned local
projects as part of its BRI strategy, the main projects are: the
construction of a deep-water port in Kyaukphyu, complete with a Special
Economic Zone; the construction of a railway from the aforementioned
port to the Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture in the western
region of Yunnan; and, finally, an oil and gas pipeline would be built
alongside the railway, supplying the Yunnan region with fossil fuels.
While supporting the coup-plotting junta and stockpiling its arsenals,
China has in reality always maintained a lukewarm and wavering stance in
its support, allowing, albeit unofficially, Chinese weapons and goods to
filter through its southern borders, even fueling some resistance
groups. While it has not condemned the coup at the United Nations and
has supplied the Tatmadaw with CH-3A Rainbow 16 UAVs to monitor the
People's Defense Force (PDF), it has, on the other hand, supplied the
latter with medical personnel and other essential goods.
India will also finance the Kaladan River multimodal transport project,
which will connect the Myanmar port of Sittwe to the Indian state of
Mizoram. Through these and other projects, New Delhi will not only have
the opportunity to expand its trade in Southeast Asia but also to erode
Chinese supremacy in the region.
The United States, while condemning the coup carried out by the
Tatmadaw, finds itself in a position of weakness due to China's deep
penetration into Myanmar.
However, it is conceivable that the Americans will support some faction
within the PDF to hinder the strategic choices implemented by the
Chinese counterpart.
In a report by Justice For Myanmar and BankTrack, five major French
banks and a pension fund continue to invest in twenty-two companies
linked to Myanmar's military junta.
The report reveals that these investments by Crédit Agricole, La Banque
Postale, the BPCE group, BNP Paribas, Société Générale, and the Fonds de
Réserves (FRR) amount to more than $6 billion, 75% of which are in the
fossil fuel sector.
Finally, it is worth mentioning the Report, prepared with the
contribution of the Pa-O Youth Organization (PYO) and the Confederation
of Trade Unions of Myanmar (CTUM), with the collaboration of FIM CISL
and Atlante delle Guerre, which highlights, with data in hand, the
choice by the DANIELI & Co SPA group (an Italian company, world leader
in the production of steel plants), to continue collaborating with the
violent Burmese dictatorship, accused of war crimes and crimes against
humanity, as well as violations of trade union freedoms, land
confiscation, and forced labor.
Economic situation and class struggle
Civil war, natural disasters, and shortages of raw materials are among
the main causes of Myanmar's economic crisis. According to the World
Bank, Myanmar is the country with the worst economic situation in the
region, and the crisis could continue until 2028.
After the coup, export-driven growth stalled. GDP collapsed from $79
billion in 2020 to $65.14 billion in 2021, due to COVID-19 and the
military coup.
Inflation, which was 1.5% in 2020, reached 27.1% in 2023, but could
stabilize around 8% by 2027. Unemployment also rose, from 0.7% in 2019
to 2.7% in 2024, exacerbated by the exit of companies such as Chevron,
TotalEnergies, and Telenor.
As reported on the World Bank website, "Public spending on health and
education is estimated to have decreased from about 4 percent of GDP in
2020/21 to about 2.2 percent in 2023/24. These figures are lower than
regional neighbors such as Cambodia, which spent 3.67 percent of GDP,
and Lao PDR, which spent 2.50 percent of GDP. Food security and
nutrition are deteriorating, with high food prices and continued labor
market weakness putting household incomes under substantial pressure,
particularly in states and regions affected by the ongoing conflict. The
World Bank's latest Food Security Monitoring Report (June 2024) found
that 42 percent of agricultural households worry about not having enough
food. The report also shows a notable decline in consumption of
nutritious foods."
3.5 million internally displaced people and over 50,000 casualties
caused by the civil war and military conscription, which triggered a
mass exodus, have led to a reduction in the workforce. GDP per capita
fell from $1,430 in 2020 to $1,170 in 2024. Foreign direct investment
also collapsed, from $4.565 billion in 2016 to $661 million in 2024.
According to a United Nations report published in December 2023,
Myanmar, as a result of political instability following the 2021
military coup, has become the world's leading opium producer, surpassing
Afghanistan, where the Taliban have banned its cultivation. The latest
report from the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) states that
approximately 1,080 metric tons of opium, essential for heroin
production, were produced in Myanmar in 2023, compared to 790 metric
tons in 2022.
The "Golden Triangle," the border region between Burma, Laos, and
Thailand, has long been a hotbed of drug production and trafficking,
particularly methamphetamine and opium. The UNODC estimates that Burma's
opioid economy generates between $1 and $2.4 billion, equivalent to 1.7%
to 4.1% of the Southeast Asian country's GDP.
Trade unions played a central role in the resistance to the coup, and
union activists faced severe reprisals; many leaders were killed,
arrested, forced into hiding, or exile.
Under military rule, workers endure terrible conditions bordering on
slavery. Global brands and an EU-backed "Made in Myanmar" project
exploit cheap labor under the guise of job creation.
In 2023, the International Labour Organization (ILO) condemned the
military coup leaders for forced labor and the suppression of trade
union activity, urging the restoration of civil liberties.
As reported on the ILO website, the main workers' organizations are the
Confederation of Myanmar Trade Unions (CTUM), the Myanmar Agricultural
and Peasant Federation (AFFM-FAW), and the Myanmar Industries Craft &
Services - Trade Union Federation (MICS-TUsF).
There is also the Worker Solidarity League of Burna (WSLB), which is
part of the anarcho-syndicalist movement. Founded in 2000, it is a
member of the Trade Union Cooperation Committee (CCTU), which since 2012
has organized 45 trade unions with the "goal of organizing unions and
uniting them in strong coalitions." After the 2021 military coup, the
CCTU was outlawed by the SAC military government and has faced many
difficulties like any other workers' and sectoral union.
Under these circumstances, the workers' unions split into two groups.
One group supports the NUG (National Unity Government) and the other the
SAC (State Administrative Council). Among all the unions and trade
federations, the WSLB, throughout its twenty-year history, has
maintained a reputation for serving only the interests of the working
class, maintaining its autonomy from the ruling groups.
WSLB has promoted a workers' convergence with several unions in the
industrial zones. The aim of this convergence is to reconnect the
unions, introduce anarcho-syndicalism, share and discuss the problems of
each different division of labor and sector, find ways to cooperate, and
ultimately build solidarity among the working class. The discussion
culminates in the victory of the strike to raise the minimum wage, which
was revised from 4,800 MMK to 5,800 MMK (1.6 USD) per day, with an
allowance of 1,000 MMK starting October 1, 2023.
Although the SAC has outlawed organizations representing workers,
persecuting or killing the most active trade unionists, the class
struggle does not stop, and workers' struggles for better conditions
continue regardless of the climate of persecution created by the
military coup leaders.
Anarchism in Myanmar
Before the 2000s, there were no organizations or individuals who
officially identified as anarchists, although some left-wing figures
employed anarchist talking points or narratives. After 2000, many young
people became interested in anarchism, and many libertarian groups were
formed across the country, working in a variety of fields, from music to
labor.
To give an idea of the liveliness of the anarchist presence in
Myanmar, we report an out-of-date list of active groups:
-Rebel riots (individualist anarchism, or anarcho-punk)
-Kultureshock (Anarcho-punk or individualist Anarchism)
-Not the Yangon bombs (Mutual Aid and Synthesis Anarchism)
-Books Not Bombs Myanmar (Synthetic Anarchism and Mutual Aid)
-For the people for the hood (Anarcho-syndicalism and mutual aid)
-Food Not Bombs Mae Sot (Mutual Aid and Synthesis Anarchism)
-Food Doesn't Bomb Kawthoolei (Mutual Aid and Synthesis Anarchism)
-Yangon Anarchist Association (Anarcho-communism and aposma)
-Wa Kha Mount (Chinese anarchism, Japanese anarchism, and post-left
anarchism)
- Burma Solidarity League (WSLB) (Trade Union)
-Yangon Anarchist Youth Front (Insurrectional Anarchism)
-Anonymous - Burma (Insurrectional Anarchism)
-Myanmar Cyber Pirates (Hacktivism)
-Burmese atheists (anarchist atheism)
-Ma Chin The (Decolonial, Anarcha-feminism & Abolitionism)
-Tankie Anarcosari (informal group)
Anarchism in Myanmar, despite having spread to the country's major
cities, is still a very young movement that must consolidate its
presence. In particular, its ability to establish roots in the social
context and among workers will be crucial to its survival. In this
sense, while there is not yet an organization inspired by the
platformist tendencies of class anarchism, we advocate for the
construction of a political organization that operates on the basis of
organizational dualism and theoretical, strategic, and tactical unity.
In reaction to the 2021 coup, many anarchist groups and comrades
actively participated in the popular uprising against the military coup
and, despite the brutal repression, continued their activities underground.
We have no updated information on the participation of anarchists in the
armed struggle, although we know that more than a few comrades have
joined the armed resistance.
Conclusions
To conclude this lengthy analysis of the situation in Myanmar and the
revolutionary prospects of the civil war, we quote the final passage
from a speech by comrades from the Yangon Anarchist Association: "As
anarchists, we align ourselves with the resistance against the fascist
regime, advocating true liberation, self-determination, and autonomy for
the region. We warn against statist organizations cloaked in an agenda
of 'national liberation,' as they can only reconstitute the ruling class
without achieving true liberation for the oppressed masses. It is
imperative to recognize the presence of various Local Defense Forces
(LDF), rooted in various regions and communities in Burma, courageously
resisting the fascist regime without relying on the support of
imperialist powers. Realizing a revolution that fully emancipates the
oppressed working class in the region, fostering cross-border solidarity
among the working class, and embracing internationalism becomes crucial.
Rather than safeguarding Beijing's economic and geopolitical interests
in exchange for support, expressing solidarity with the oppressed
working class under the regime is essential." of the CCP, supporting the
Uyghurs and supporting the liberation of Hong Kong are crucial.”
Lino Roveredo and Virgilio Caletti
Sources:
https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/myanmar-ora-la-vera-minaccia-e-lo-scontro-etnico-29160
https://altreconomia.it/dai-generali-alle-violazioni-dei-diritti-umani-i-passi-del-colpo-di-stato-in-myanmar/
https://aspeniaonline.it/myanmar-un-tassello-dello-scontro-sino-americano/
https://libcom.org/article/burmas-revolution-and-role-beijings-imperialism
https://geopoliticalhub.unilink.it/myanmar-attori-internazionali-ed-i-loro-interessi/
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https://alternativalibertaria.fdca.it/
_________________________________________
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