Good morning,
Tomorrow's European Council in Brussels promises a high-stakes discussion among EU leaders, with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy expected in town and Ukraine's financial needs dominating talks.
EU leaders face intense pressure to greenlight a €90bn reparations loan plan for 2026-2027, using frozen Russian assets, amid Belgium's demands for unlimited guarantees against Moscow’s retaliation risks.
This is widely seen as the only option “on the table” since Hungary blocks unanimity options such as joint EU borrowing, backed by the EU budget – a.k.a “the option on the shelf”.
But some would argue that if the EU can bypass unanimity to keep frozen assets immobilised (as seen last week with the exceptional use of article 122), the 27-member bloc could do the same for joint borrowing. However, there is no clarity, and as the saying goes, if you ask three lawyers, you’ll get three different answers.
EU diplomats often say nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, and Belgium is expected to play that card to the end. The country is calling for “unlimited” financial guarantees, liquidity bonds, and burden-sharing with non-EU allies, such as the UK. But no EU country can legally commit to an unlimited financial guarantee under its current national laws.
The stakes couldn’t be higher, since a ‘no deal’ would portray the EU as indecisive at a key moment where peace talks are gaining momentum, as seen in Berlin this week, involving US president Donald Trump's envoys.
Off the summit agenda, the trade agreement with Mercosur countries looms large, with safeguards trilogues successful but ratification extremely thin. A vote is scheduled on Friday morning, with Poland, Italy and France and other countries expected to vote against or abstain – and clashing with top EU officials António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen's planned Brazil trip for Mercosur signing on Saturday.
All expect a historic and long summit. But all we want for Christmas is not another endless EUCO dragging into Saturday, as a few diplomats said, half joking and half warning that talks will last as long as it takes to reach a Ukraine deal.
- Elena Sánchez Nicolás, editor-in-chief
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