WORLD WORLDWIDE EUROPE ITALY - news journal UPDATE - (en) Italy, UCADI #201 - France: Le-cornu at work (ca, de, fr, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

 France is experiencing one of the most complicated and contradictory

crises in the history of the Fifth Republic. The crisis of Macronism has
thrown the country into chaos, to the point that today more than one in
two French people wants the President's early resignation . ---- This is
because Macron is now a finished man, discredited internationally for
his foreign policy. ---- During his tenure, France saw the remnants of
Francophone Africa dissolve, while the governments he appointed stood by
and supported the war in Ukraine, which the French people do not want.
Macron deserves credit for attempting to open a channel of dialogue with
Putin, but it is also true that he subsequently ended up among the
"willing," subordinating himself to British policy. Domestically, he is
responsible for a failed policy that is leading France to economic
decline. Public debt exceeds €3.3 trillion and is worth 114% of GDP,
with a deficit/GDP ratio consistently above 5%.
To address the country's complex economic and financial situation,
Macron had considered introducing a pension reform that would unify the
system, abolishing some of the benefits enjoyed by those in physically
demanding jobs, and raising the retirement age. He made this reform a
sort of banner, a symbol of a progressive reform of the French welfare
system.
He thus engaged in a tug-of-war with the French public and the unions,
who responded with a mass mobilization that saw massive participation
for weeks and brutal strikes. Despite this, the President decided, in a
coup permitted by the Constitution, to bypass the parliamentary vote and
pass the measure anyway. This decision triggered an institutional crisis
and, more importantly, created the conditions for the formation of a
left-wing alliance that undermined the government.
Macron's early dissolution of Parliament and the early parliamentary
elections failed to resolve the problem, polarizing the political
situation by creating two opposing camps, left and right, thus further
weakening Macron's center and the surviving Gaullist right (Les
Républicains). In this situation, he was unable to find a stable
governing majority four times.
Today, the person charged with acting Prime Minister is Monsieur
Le-cornu, as the smiling French people in the streets and squares
protesting the government's policies say.
He is the youngest minister appointed by Macron, and even at his first
meeting with Parliament, he lacked the required majority. After being
reappointed by Macron, he managed to split the left, which was calling
for Macron's early resignation and immediate presidential elections. The
Prime
Minister exploited divisions within the left-wing bloc and persuaded the
Socialists to guarantee non-censorship for his nascent cabinet,
obtaining in exchange a suspension of the pension reform, thus splitting
the left. This solution was opposed by France Insoumise , the Greens,
and other left-wing parties.
The right, for its part, continued to call for presidential elections
and the dissolution of the Chamber.
To understand the Lecornu government's stance, it's enough to recall
what French Finance Minister Amélie de Montchalin said about the
government's priorities: "We need more soldiers, more police, and
gendarmes, but fewer teachers." This is as if to say, if we want to
govern, we don't need educated French people because it's
easier to govern the stupid; Meloni has clearly set a precedent.
The viability of this agreement will need to be assessed in the coming
weeks, and much will depend on the content of the budget law that
Lecornu must present between November and December. Given the prevailing
economic and financial instability and the fragmentation of the
parliamentary political framework, the budget law will inevitably be far
less ambitious than the €43 billion drafted by Bayrou, which included
cuts through both pension and welfare reforms.
The Lecornu government will likely opt for a Meloni-style solution,
passing a bare-bones budget just to give the country a budget to spare.
It will effectively be a transitional government ahead of the municipal
elections scheduled for March 2026, whose results will serve as a
prelude to the 2027 presidential campaign. The hope is that even the
slightest suggestion of reform will be included in the race for the
Elysée and seriously addressed.
This political strategy, adopted by Macron and Lecornu, postpones all
problems until after April 2027: one wonders whether France, its
economic and political system, will be able to withstand that long. Once
the country has a budget, the Lecornu government will be characterized
as a respite government ahead of the March municipal elections.
2026 and the 2027 presidential elections. It will be interesting to see
to what extent the electorate will reward this choice by the Socialist
Party and how the Socialists' de facto break with the left will affect
their choice of presidential candidate.
Currently, the left considers Raphaël Glucksmann the best possible
candidate, but the Socialists will either support him or demand that the
candidate be selected through open primaries, to be held before a
candidacy can be formalized. On the left, there are many likely
candidates, including former President Hollande, who has reappeared on
the political scene; the next six months will be crucial to determine
whether the left has any chance of having a candidate in the
presidential runoff.
It could happen that, in addition to the right-wing candidate, who will
certainly be represented by the National Rally, there will also be the
candidacy of Edouard Philippe, who, after the failure of his government,
has done everything to distance himself from Macron's positions, but who
aspires to be his de facto heir.
What is certain is that Macron's term will end with a disastrous outcome
for France, which will emerge weakened, internationally discredited,
economically devastated, and with a social crisis looming due to the
austerity policies that will be imposed, with a budget deficit
exacerbated by expenses—which the current government is doing everything
to hide—incurred to finance the war in Ukraine and those that will be
necessary for rearmament.

G.C.

https://www.ucadi.org/2025/11/01/francia-le-cornu-al-lavoro/
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