Good morning,
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen's political future hangs by a thread as a key appeal kicks off in a Paris court today.
Le Pen, head of the National Rally (Rassemblement National), was barred from running for public office after she and more than 20 others, including eight other current or former MEPs, were found guilty of embezzlement.
Back in March 2025, the court held that this was an organised embezzlement system that diverted more than €4m of EU money to the party's operations via fictitious assistant jobs between 2004 and 2016.
With an appeal decision expected by summer 2026, the main legal questions are whether the five-year ban from running for public office is proportional, whether it should take effect right away, or if it should be shortened, put on hold, or overturned.
One outcome could be a full acquittal on appeal, but this is seen as highly unlikely given the EU anti-fraud agency Olaf's previous investigations into the matter.
The court could also keep the verdict but shorten the ban period. If it were cut to, say, about two years, it would end before the 2027 filing deadlines and allow Le Pen's presidential campaign dreams to come true.
But if the embezzlement conviction is upheld, Le Pen's long‑planned fourth presidential bid for 2027 will de facto end — paving the path for her 30-year-old protégée, Jordan Bardella, to possibly become the next president of France. The chances are there, but this may end up with unpredictable twists.
What is clear is that if the conviction and ban hold, it will likely fuel further debates over the "judicialisation" of politics in France, even though it's always rich irony when far-right populists and oligarchs slam an independent court ruling in a democratic country as an "abuse" of democracy.
- Elena Sánchez Nicolás, editor-in-chief
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