Good morning,
If your heart broke a little on 4 December, when the US published a far-right security manifesto, then you might find therapeutic its defence strategy of 23 January.
The [/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf]national security screed was written by US president Donald Trump's White House.
It fantasised about "civilisational erasure" of Europe by Muslim migrants, pledged to back anti-EU parties, was welcomed by the Kremlin, and came amid mounting tension over Trump's threat to seize Greenland by force, which would have ended Nato.
The new defence strategy was published by the Pentagon, spoke of Europe as an "ally" at every turn, made sad reading for Russia, and came after Trump backed down on Greenland, causing a collective sigh of relief at last week's EU summit.
Looking at conventional warfare, the defence paper said: "Russia will remain a persistent but manageable threat to Nato's eastern members for the foreseeable future", had "deep reservoirs of military and industrial power", and the "national resolve required to sustain a protracted war in its near abroad".
But "Moscow is in no position to make a bid for European hegemony. European Nato dwarfs Russia", the US added.
"Our Nato allies are substantially more powerful than Russia - it is not even close," it said.
And on top of this, the US "will also continue to play a vital role in Nato ... we are and will remain engaged in Europe," the US said, although it repeated its long-standing view that China was the main threat to global US interests.
China was "the most powerful state relative to us since the 19th century", it said.
It's hard to say if the change in tone on Europe is because the anti-EU strategy came out of the White House, while the defence paper came out of the Pentagon, or because Trump changed his mind between 4 December and 23 January.
But on a personal note, I recently interviewed Italian (retired) admiral Luigi Binelli Mantelli, who was Italy's armed forces chief until 2015, and who voiced "faith" that US military commanders still felt fraternal Atlanticist ties, just like the now also retired US admirals and generals of his generation, such as James G. Stavridis and Martin Dempsey.
"I find it hard to imagine any US military leadership totally different from these people, and I am sure that it is not so; I have faith in the US military system," Binelli Mantelli told me, despite Trump's flip-flopping on the EU, Nato, and Russia.
Edgar Buckley, a British former Nato assistant secretary general for defence planning, felt the same.
"I imagine that Trump has not greatly affected mutual respect at the military level," Buckley said by email on Sunday evening, helping me sleep better.
"I imagine the world has now moved on from these issues [Trump's Greenland threat]," he added.
But "I still cannot foresee possible military confrontation between allies," Buckley said, no matter what the White House might think of next.
- Andrew Rettman, foreign-affairs editor
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