Faced with the impossibility of forming a stable government, snap
elections were held on October 29th to renew the Tweede Kamer, thecountry's lower house, the third in four years. The 2023 elections,
which saw Mark Rutte's exit from politics, were won by Geert Wilders'
far-right PVV party, which, after lengthy negotiations lasting over six
months, had formed a coalition government that failed to withstand the
unpopularity of its measures.
Wilders' party emerged from the election significantly reduced (losing
11 seats), but retained 26 seats, the same number as those obtained by
D66. However, this party obtained 30,000 more votes than Wilders, thus
earning the right to begin the complex process that will lead to the
formation of the new government.
In compliance with Dutch law regarding the formation of a government,
the centrist and liberal party of Rob Jetten (the Netherlands' first
openly gay leader) was able to appoint a political scout, as required by
the Constitution. It has identified Wouter Koolmees, a former member of
Parliament and former Minister of Social Affairs during the third Rutte
government, who was acceptable to the King. He has served as a civil
servant and since 2022 has been President of the Dutch Railways (NS), a
position suspended to become an informant, a member of D66.
Koolmees will consult with all parties on which coalition they see as
possible. The informant will report the results of his consultations to
the Chamber as soon as possible and will meet with mediators from all
parties so that the new Chamber can discuss various options for solving
the problem, starting a week after its inauguration. During that debate,
an informant will also be appointed to explore the possibility of a
specific combination of parties. The informant is responsible for
managing negotiations between the parties of the potential majority to
form a government.
Looking at the seats of the different parties, there is only one
possible majority combination, provided that a four-party government is
formed: D66 (26 seats), the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy
(VVD, center-right, 22 seats), the Christian Democrats of the CDA
(center-right, 18 seats), and the left-wing Greens/Labour alliance (20
seats). These parties would together hold 86 of the 150 seats in the
Lower House.
Although before the meeting with Koolmees, Jetten stated that he
expected the party leaders to meet several times in the coming days "in
various combinations," he reiterated his preference for a broad majority
(D66, VVD, GL-PvdA, CDA), while acknowledging that the path is not easy,
given that the VVD has stated it does not want a government that
includes GroenLinks-PvdA. Furthermore, convincing the VVD and the
Greens/Labor to work together will not be easy. VVD leader Dilan
Yesilgöz-Zegerius told the press that there is "no chance" the two
parties will collaborate.
Jetten's choice, appointing Wouter Koolmees, currently director of the
state-owned railway company NS and previously Minister of Social Affairs
and Labor, hinges on his recognized mediation skills. As a negotiator
between the parties, however, he will not have an easy life, even though
Jetten stated that "it is very important to form a stable and ambitious
government as soon as possible." Until a new government is formed,
outgoing Prime Minister Dick Schoof will obviously be responsible for
current affairs.
The Wilders Unknown
PVV leader Wilders met with negotiator Koolmees and asked him to
participate in the next coalition, noting that the PVV won the same
number of seats as D66 (26) and stating, "I believe we deserve a place
at that table."
However, many parties have already stated that they do not wish to
collaborate with the PVV, but Wilders warns that he does not intend to
be sidelined: "We must have a chance, and if we are blocked, we will
oppose as vigorously as possible to ensure the government falls
quickly." Meanwhile, he obtained a seat at the negotiator's meetings by
having his party appoint him as an informant. Given the mediator's
report to the President of the Chamber on November 11 and the complexity
of the negotiations, it is safe to assume that the new government will
not be formed before Christmas.
Faced with the prospect of having to address the issue of regulating
public housing rents and the proposal to close the borders to curb
emigration, Windows was unable to find a majority to support his
proposals and therefore preferred to end his government experience,
trusting that the electorate would understand and, with a new vote this
time by a plebiscite, would enable him to implement his program.
Although the election results did him wrong because Dutch society
reflected on the enormity of the outgoing government's proposals and
tasted the repression implemented by the previous executive, Winders is
trying again: by joining the coalition, he intends to destabilize it
from within and provoke the inertia that characterized the previous
executive and led to the end of its government experience. Thus, he
intends to demonstrate that if the country wants a stable government, it
cannot do without his political formation and therefore must come to
terms with him. It is precisely this political choice that is leading
the Socialist Party to resist joining the governing coalition, believing
that another dose of right-wing government is necessary to demonstrate
to voters the right's inadequacy in governing and to help bring voters
to their senses. A coalition government could guarantee neither
stability nor the implementation of a coherent government program: they
would therefore prefer to stay out of government and make it dependent
on the support of smaller right-wing parties. Indeed, while the results
achieved by the larger parties have been accompanied by the total
collapse of the New Social Contract Parentesi (NCS) party, which was
completely ousted from the Assembly for failing to reach a quorum, the
CDA (Christian Democratic Party) has seen a substantial increase after
splitting from its predecessor, which won 18 seats. The Civic Farmers'
Movement (BBB) has also seen a decline, winning only 4 seats.
Finally, note the growth of far-right minority groups, including JA21,
which won 9 seats, and the Forum for Democracy, which won 7. This is in
addition to the votes of other smaller movements.
Visual analysis shows that Wilders' party, unlike in previous elections,
failed to unite all the right-wing impulses of the electorate. Its
failure to achieve the promised results has led to further
radicalization on the right, resulting in the scattering of votes among
several smaller groups.
The victory of D66, a centrist party, does not therefore mean the Dutch
institutional crisis has been overcome. A new snap election is to be
expected shortly, along with government instability in the face of
growing polarization among political forces. The crisis of the EU member
states is growing and deepening.
Gianni Cimbalo
https://www.ucadi.org/2025/11/30/lolanda-alla-ricerca-di-un-governo/
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