France, Alternative Libertaire AL #238 - Middle East: The rat race (fr, pt)

Three years after the start of Arab revolutions, the Middle East, the situation is more 
explosive than ever. The region saw significant changes that upset the old geopolitical 
balances. Here are some keys to understanding the current dynamics.----- A brief return to 
the beginning of the twenty-first century is necessary. When the neocons in power in 
Washington jumped on the occasion of the World Trade Center to reshape their own way what 
they called the Greater Middle East. The result of the military adventures of George Bush 
is not at all that they hoped for. By invading Afghanistan, the United States reached the 
strategic interests of their Pakistani and Saudi allies who supported the Taliban. 
Instead, India, Russia and Iran, supported the Northern Alliance, are the big winners in 
this war where NATO bogged down.

The overthrow of Saddam Hussein has resulted in the marginalization of the Sunni minority 
that ran Iraq since the end of the Ottoman Empire. It is replaced by the Shiite majority 
that brought him to power of Islamist parties close to Iran. It is a blow to the Saudi 
monarchy loses an essential part of his device against the Islamic Republic. For the 
domination of the United States in the Middle East, the record of the Bush years is 
catastrophic, its Gulf allies weakened by them, while the Iranian enemy is strengthened.

The encirclement of Iran policy is a complete fiasco. She gave an opposite result than 
expected: the extension of the zone of influence of Iranian power. Today, its political 
relations with the Afghan government of Hamid Karzai are cordial economic exchanges 
between the two countries develop. Relations with the Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki 
are even better. The Iraqi market has become an important outlet for the Iranian economy, 
in particular the areas of energy, consumer goods, food, tourism. The two countries are 
close to several regional policy issues, especially civil war in Syria. Baghdad passes on 
its territory with Teheran regime of Bashar al-Assad and does nothing to prevent thousands 
of Iraqi Shiite Islamists to fight in his camp.

Declining power of the United States

The economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union do not give the 
Iranian regime. While the country is hit hard, the economy is bad, but it's mostly the 
population that suffers the consequences. If sanctions do not work is because many 
countries defy the USA. China, India, Russia and even Turkey is a NATO member would 
continue to trade with Iran, giving the system the necessary breathing space to survive. 
All their attempts failed, the United States decided in 2013 to engage with the Islamic 
republic a real dialogue on its nuclear program and sanctions. A significant decision of 
the difficulties that American power.

The decline of the power of the United States is a key factor in the current dynamic in 
the Middle East. They are weakened by their military failures. With a huge debt and an 
economy in crisis, the country is no longer able to cover the necessary expenses to 
maintain its global hegemony. Symbol of this fact, the next Pentagon budget provides that 
the number of ground forces came under the 500 000 soldiers, the lowest level since 1940.

Faced with the emergence of new rival powers, the U.S. is forced to limit their ambitions 
and to set priorities. Today the main threat is no longer Muslim terrorism is the 
assertion of Chinese power. The new slogan of the foreign policy of Barack Obama is the 
"pivot" to Asia. Reallocation and redeployment of military resources to Asia, which 
involve a partial withdrawal from the Middle East. This translates into greater 
flexibility for local actors, including Saudi Arabia who feels abandoned by the U.S., see 
betrayed regarding negotiations with Iran. External actors such as Russia and China took 
the opportunity to advance their pawns.

Race for hegemony over the Sunni

The disruptions caused by the Arab revolutions since 2011 have made the region more 
unstable and even more complex situation. Syria is the main battlefield of the 
confrontation between the "axis of resistance" (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah) supported by 
Moscow, the Gulf monarchies and Turkey allied with the West. But if the first camp is 
welded because it's the survival of its components, the second is deeply divided.

Through support for multiple factions of the Syrian opposition, their regional sponsors 
are engaged in a power struggle to the tune of hundreds of millions of petrodollars. Saudi 
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates supported the Salafis as Qatar supports the Muslim 
Brotherhood groups. We find the same configuration in Egypt, where the Saudis approve the 
overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood by the military while Qatar and Turkey denounce.

That other conflict undermines the Cooperation Council of the Gulf, a safe organization 
created in 1981 by the Gulf monarchies to counter the Islamic revolution in Iran. The eyes 
of the Wahhabi monarchy, the Muslim Brotherhood has two major flaws: they are dangerous 
rivals in the race for hegemony over the Sunnis and is a Republican who threatens the 
throne and privileges of many princes movement. Qatar leads an aggressive diplomacy for 
several years, defies its larger neighbor by making alliance with the Brotherhood in order 
to increase its influence in the Arab world. In early March, their relations have soured a 
little more: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have recalled their 
ambassadors in Qatar.

Under these conditions it is impossible to make predictions about the future political 
landscape of the region. Especially since other factors come into play: the Palestinian 
issue is still not resolved, the Kurds advantage of circumstances to advance their demands 
for greater autonomy. And economic and social problems at the root of popular uprisings of 
2011 have not been solved. Other revolts are possible.

Herv? (AL Marseille)