WORLD WORLDWIDE POLAND News Journal Update - (en) Poland, FA: FREEDOM AND PEACE FOR UKRAINE - INSTEAD OF BLOODY SLAUGHTER (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

 

The outbreak of the armed conflict in Palestine pushed information about
the war in Ukraine into the background in the Polish and foreign media.
All the more so because the summer offensive of the Armed Forces of
Ukraine (SZU), which - after the earlier recapture of the areas around
Kherson and Kharkov - had collapsed, had many hopes attached to it.
Meanwhile, the front line, despite fierce fighting, did not change much.
The attack stopped. Many people died and a lot of equipment was lost.
The enemy, the Russian army - which the Polish media traditionally
mocked - turned out to be much stronger, smarter and more efficient than
expected.

DISINFORMATION
The media coverage also changed due to the failure of the Ukrainian
offensive. So far, the press has simply lied on many issues, or, if you
prefer, being drawn into an information war with Russia, it has
disinformed. It turned out that Ukrainian data on Russia's losses were
greatly overstated; the rocket that fell on Poland and killed two people
was fired by the Armed Forces, not Russia; and Nord Stream was blown up
by Ukrainian saboteurs, not the Kremlin, etc.

There is currently an ongoing dispute between media experts as to whose
disinformation was more effective - the Ukrainian one, repeated by
Polish and Western media, or the Russian one. Some experts say that Kiev
won. Unfortunately for you. The truth is now more shocking than it
should have been if a little more objectivity had been maintained in the
past.

Therefore, criticism of the authorities in Kiev has intensified. There
is increasingly disturbing information about the situation inside the
country: violations of civil rights, political prisoners, lack of
freedom of speech and freedom of political activity. A ruthless fight
has begun within the Ukrainian power elites. Eleven opposition political
parties have been banned, the religious practices of parts of the
Orthodox Church are being hindered - despite social protests - and
unfavorable media are closed. Information deemed untrue and harmful to
the state can result in a sentence no less severe than for similar
publications and statements in Russia. "Blacklists" are being created,
and those who find themselves on them risk losing their jobs, having
their bank accounts closed or being attacked by ultra-right militants.
All this under the pretext of fighting pro-Russian sympathies, and in
reality also as criticism of the current government, nationalism and war.

DESERTERS
Since we consider the propaganda claim that the Armed Forces supported
by the West are only pursuing military successes as an indisputable
fact, and since we do not know the extent of losses on the Ukrainian
front, some of the information leaking into the media today may
surprise. For example, there are currently open protests by families of
soldiers who have been at the front for many months without rotation.
Videos of roundups of conscripts who apparently do not want to join the
army are increasingly appearing on the Internet. So far, such "pictures"
seemed rather characteristic of the Russian side.

Some people attribute the new wave of mobilization in Ukraine to the
fact that so far, attempts have been made to protect the youngest
generations from being sent to the front. The average age at SZU
eventually reached 43 years. This state of affairs would be
unsustainable in a prolonged conflict. In response, however, thousands
of young Ukrainians do not want to join the army and avoid service or
simply desert from the army. The BBC reported on November 17 this year.
(this information was repeated by gazeta.pl) that since the beginning of
the conflict on February 24, 2022, approximately 21,000 people have
tried to escape from mobilization. people (detained), but there are at
least twice as many - 40 thousand. Earlier, in June this year, the BBC
reported that at least 90 young people died trying to illegally cross
the Ukrainian-Romanian border in the Carpathians in winter.

Ultimately, since the beginning of full-scale Russian aggression,
thousands of people have appeared before the Ukrainian justice accused
of evading military service, desertion and insubordination, etc. The
repression is reported by, among others, War Resisters' International,
one of the oldest conscientious objector and anti-war organizations. The
growing problem in this area is also evidenced by the statistics of
initiated cases under the provisions of the Ukrainian Criminal Code
regarding crimes related to performing military service in 2021-2023
(see the table below).

table
Many people "buy" themselves from the army with bribes. This corruption
takes on a huge dimension, and the heads of Ukrainian reinforcement
commands became owners of Spanish villas and the latest Mercedes models
during the war. Another way is to start paid higher education, which
allows you to postpone conscription into the army. In 2021, 25,000
students studied there. people aged 20 to 40. In 2022, there were
already... 110,000. Finally - despite the ban - the young men decided to
stay abroad and not return to the country. It is difficult to say how
many of them are staying or intend to stay in exile illegally under
Ukrainian law, but it will probably be at least several dozen thousand,
if not - as some media claim - over a hundred thousand.

The Ukrainian government claims that this type of information about
people evading service is nothing more than enemy - that is to say
Kremlin - propaganda, and the issue does not concern more than 1-5% of
those subject to mobilization and it does not threaten the combat
readiness of the Armed Forces. Unfortunately, these explanations may be
as far from the truth as the official Ukrainian statements about those
killed at the front. All the more so because the Ukrainian authorities
tightened the criminal regulations regarding performing military service
at the turn of 2022 and 2023, which proves something completely opposite
- the problem, the existence of which the government denies, is actually
present.

COST OF WAR
All this paints a picture of a mass refusal to participate in the bloody
massacre taking place in Ukraine. Especially since its end is getting
closer and closer. From extreme optimism to extreme pessimism. It is
said that the war may last not only the entire next year, but even
several more years.

In this context, the question arises about Ukraine's economic condition
- the ability to continue to oppose Russian aggression depends on it. In
a recently published report, the International Monetary Fund stated that
Ukraine's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 29% in 2022;
unemployment was 24.5% despite the mobilization of a significant part of
the country's population into the army; inflation - 20%. Thanks to the
incoming funds from the West, not only weapons, but also money for
maintaining the state, the situation has stabilized somewhat in 2023.
For example, inflation has been maintained at 8.6% for now.

It is predicted that in 2024, all budget revenues that the government in
Kiev is able to collect will be sufficient only to maintain the army and
continue the fight. To finance the state, foreign aid of at least USD 43
billion is needed (for comparison, the Polish budget in 2022 on the
revenue side is approximately USD 150 billion). This is money that is
increasingly difficult to obtain from the West, which is why Kiev
intends to freeze pensions, annuities and other social benefits (which,
given inflation, means their real decline) or introduce layoffs in the
central and local government administration. Ukraine is becoming
economically subordinate, and possible aid is increasingly dependent on
economic structural changes - for example, Kiev is being asked to free
the prices of gas and other energy carriers (previously subsidized).
This will, of course, affect the country's inhabitants.

The situation of Ukraine's opponent seems better than it was originally
presented in the media. Unlike Ukraine, where bombs are systematically
falling throughout the entire area (approximately 10,000 civilians have
already been killed), de facto there are no hostilities taking place on
the vast territory of Russia (not counting the border areas and sporadic
air raids on facilities inside the Russian Federation). Predictions
about the disastrous state of the Russian economy, which was to
collapse, especially after the Western sanctions were introduced, were
also not confirmed. Although it is experiencing serious difficulties, it
is far from the total disaster that was predicted. Considering the
conditions, she is doing quite well. It has to fight inflation (the
cumulative inflation is, however, clearly lower than that in Ukraine),
labor shortage (unemployment is at a very low level) and an expensive
dollar, but there is no huge decline in GDP (only 2.1% in 2022). the
collapse of public finances or production, which is additionally
stimulated by the arms sector.

It was also expected that subsequent waves of mobilization to the front
(the first and so far only one took place in September last year) would
lead to even greater social dissatisfaction in Russia. Not dozens, but
hundreds of reinforcement commands will be burned, thrown with Molotov
cocktails by leaked conscripts. However, Putin is not relying on
conscripted soldiers, but contract soldiers, often recruited from the
poorest regions of the country. The government pays them huge amounts of
money that they and their families could only dream of before. Russia
has at least four times greater reserves of young men than Ukraine.
Although some Russian economists argue that real wages and consumption
in Russia are falling and the poverty sphere is widening, it seems that
while some social groups lose, others - through the sacrifice of their
blood - gain.

DEMOCRACY OR DICTATORY?
As you can see, the economic and demographic potential of both countries
is very different, and if the allies leave Ukraine alone - which clearly
seems likely - it may lose in this unequal fight. It's no wonder that
society is on the verge of breaking through. The economic destruction of
the country has been going on since the 1990s - the war since 2014,
including the last two years of heavy fighting. Ukraine is in ruins -
not figuratively, but literally.

The costs of the war seem to be beginning to exceed the West's
expectations and capabilities. The world is experiencing, if not a
recession, then at least economic stagnation. There are more and more
opinions about the need to conclude peace or at least stop the fire.
Ukraine also began to talk about the need for talks with Russia.
However, this option is rejected by the president of the country, with
whom an increasing number of his supporters are at odds: from the heads
of the Ministry of National Defense, through the commanders-in-chief of
the army, to his current advisors. It is said that Volodymyr Zelensky
has become detached from reality in his demands to fight for final
victory, i.e. the liberation of the territories occupied by Russia. It
is increasingly difficult for him to find a common language not only
with Ukrainian but also foreign politicians.

Until recently, there was talk in Ukraine of holding presidential
elections in 2024, despite the armed conflict and the lack of legal
basis. The regulations do not provide for elections in times of war.
There was apparently pressure from the West to present Ukraine as a
democratic state and not a war dictatorship. Recently, Zelensky ruled
out such a possibility, which was influenced not only by failures on the
front, but also by the disintegration of the power elite - he realized
that he would have competitors and his victory in a few months, despite
his enormous current popularity, is not certain. Polls say that
Ukrainians support Zelensky's tough line, but perhaps only because they
see no other alternative for now. Let's ignore the fact that public
opinion polls during the war are burdened with great unknowns - they are
difficult to rely on. Zelensky even began to fear a coup and openly says
that such an attempt will be made soon.

ENDING: EMPOWERMENT AND DISINTEGRATION
So far, all those who called for peace have been accused of denying
subjectivity to the Ukrainian nation. The war was supposed to give it
even greater importance and cleanse it of Russian influences. However,
as Benedict Anderson noted in his influential work on the origins of
nationalism, such communities are imaginary, not to say invented. This
truth is becoming more and more striking in the case of our eastern
neighbor.

The society that actually exists within the borders of Ukraine is not
undergoing subjectification, but disintegration due to the trauma of
war, fratricidal (in the literal sense) fighting, the threat of death at
any time, mass emigration abroad and within the country, unemployment,
rapid impoverishment, and devastation of entire cities. and ecological
degradation of many regions of the country, repression and armed terror,
etc. Ukraine is on the verge of a demographic catastrophe, the number of
inhabitants is rapidly decreasing.

Yes, this war was forced on this society. I am sure that most Ukrainians
and Russians did not want it. However, a free society can only realize
itself in conditions of peace. For some, it was obvious from the
beginning, others preferred to incite a bloody fight that probably ended
for good on the Ukrainian steppes.

Gandhi is said to have once said that if he had to choose between
fighting and cowardice, he would choose fighting. The only question is:
fighting for what and for whom? That is why I dedicate this text to all
deserters, on both sides of the front, in gratitude for their courage.

Sources:

In this article, I used statistics provided by the Polish right-wing
historian and political scientist Marek Budzisz (recent statements
posted on the YouTube channel Podróz bez Paszportu), and the Russian
left-wing economist Olga Komolova (YouTube channel ??????? ?????). In
addition, I took advantage of, among others: from the following materials:

Data of the General Prosecutor's Office of Ukraine on registered crimes
and results of pre-trial proceedings:
https://gp.gov.ua/ua/posts/pro-zareyestrovani-kriminalni-pravoporushennya-ta-rezultati-yih-dosudovogo-rozsliduvannya-2
"Swimming rivers and faking illness to escape Ukraine's draft",
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67120904
"Ukraine war: Deserters risk death fleeing to Romania",
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65792384
"World Economic Outlook. Navigating Global Divergences",
file:///C:/Users/HP/Downloads/text-2.pdf
Jadwiga Rogoza, "Ukraine in the face of a demographic catastrophe",
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2023-07-11/ukraine-face-a-demographic-catastrophe
"Hundreds of thousands. Mass exodus from Ukraine",
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/setki-tysiecy-masowy-exodus-z-ukrainy-6966657121987456a
I published a separate article about the number of those killed and
injured at the front:

"The carnage in Ukraine continues. Tens of thousands of dead and war
invalids on both sides of the conflict",
https://www.rozbrat.org/publicystyka/walka-klas/4862-rzez-w-ukranie-twarz-dziesiatki-tysiecy-zabitych-i-inwalidow-wojennych-
on-both-sides-of-the-conflict
I published the following articles about the situation in Russia:

"Russian resistance to the war in Ukraine: direct actions, desertions,
peaceful demonstrations",
https://www.rozbrat.org/publicystyka/polityka/4840-rozus-opor-powiedzko-wojnie-w-ukrainie-akcje-bezposrednie-dezercje
-peaceful-demonstrations
"Workers and the labor market in Russia in the era of war and
sanctions",  https://www.ozzip.pl/publicystyka/
Gospodarka/item/2931-robotnicy-i-rynek-pracy-w-rosji-w-dobie-wojny-
and-sanctions
"The labor market and class conflicts in Russia",
https://www.ozzip.pl/publicystyka/walki-pracownicze/item/2966-rynek-pracy-i-konflikty-klasowe-w-rosji

Jaroslaw Urbanski

www.rozbrat.org

https://federacja-anarchistyczna.pl/2023/11/27/wolnosc-i-pokoj-dla-ukrainy-zamiast-krwawej-rzezi/
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