WORLD WORLDWIDE EUROPE FRANCE - news journal UPDATE - (en) France, OCL CA #343 - US ELECTIONS IN 2024: WHICH DIRECTION FOR THE EMPIRE? (ca, de, fr, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

If we listen to the official discourse, the United States seems to have
weathered the post-Covid inflationary crisis better than the rest of the
world: real wages are increasing, unemployment is at its lowest, and
above all, the American economy still dominates the rest of the world.
However, ungrateful, American voters do not recognize the success of the
Democratic policy led by Biden since 2020. And he is right, between the
astronomical increase in the cost of real estate, the ecological crises
that are multiplying, the shootings in schools, the absence of universal
health insurance and the fascist militias that march in the streets,
there is reason to despair. While the country has been experiencing a
revival of protests since the end of the 2010s, the 2024 presidential
election promises to be more tense than ever. A quick overview of this
election and the issues at stake at the end of the year in Uncle Sam's
country.

Electoral divides
Studies of previous elections allow us to estimate the current drivers
of voting. We find similarities with other Western democracies with one
exception: abstention is particularly high in the country, reaching
nearly 50%, except in 2020 when it fell to around 38% of the total
number of eligible voters. Among voters, a link can be established
between income level and choice of candidate: low and high incomes vote
more for Democrats than other groups. But, probably because of the
similarity of economic programs between the parties, the real divisions
are elsewhere and suggest a strategy of the lesser evil chosen by
voters. The groups that vote overwhelmingly for Democrats are non-white
people (especially Blacks) and LGBT people, fairly independently of
their income level, education or religion. If Trump had won a few
percentage points among these groups, they remain very loyal to the
Democrats. In reality, the group that votes overwhelmingly for the
Republicans is that of evangelical Protestants whose principles are
closer to white supremacy than to Christianity. Then remains the last
group that is accused of all the evils when the election does not lean
in favor of the Democrats: Whites. When we look at their votes; age,
gender, level of education and place of residence become the elements
that seem to tip one side or the other. Racism and discrimination
clearly appear to be the most mobilizing elements of voters and,
probably rightly so, given that the programs of the parties, like the
dominant media discourse, only really diverge on these aspects. Finally,
the subject of abortion may, as it was during the 2022 midterm
elections, be a mobilizing issue: several states will submit to the vote
proposals to repeal anti-abortion laws or severely restrict it.

Vote for what?
Trump fears his opponent, Harris, whose nomination quickly caused the
enthusiasm around his candidacy to fall after the assassination attempt
on him last July. He repeatedly calls his opponent a
"socialist-Marxist." As one might expect, the reality is quite
different. If Harris had expressed some opinions aligned with the left
faction of the Democrats, she quickly disavowed them during her
vice-presidency. Exit the Green New Deal, the numerical increase in the
federal minimum wage ($7.25 gross per hour while at least $25 per hour
is necessary to live decently) and health insurance for all, she is now
a fervent supporter of hydraulic fracturing and promises to "fight" to
increase the minimum wage, without giving any figures. She wants to
position herself in the continuity of Biden's policy: pushing the
capitalist machine to full speed to ensure work for as many people as
possible without truly improving living conditions. Even on abortion,
the subject on which she focused her campaign, her announcements remain
very vague and do not propose a concrete plan to secure this right at
the federal level. On immigration or police violence, the differences
between the two candidates are more in degree than in kind. In the end,
the Democrats increasingly appear as guardians of the status quo, not
going back or very little on what was done under Trump and guaranteeing
a continuous and slow shift to the right of the country's politics.

Some concrete issues for the American people
And therein lies the problem: the election is not so much about the
material conditions of existence as about a front against the far-right
policies of the Republicans. We will not discuss the proposals that
Trump may have made during his campaign since, more often than not, his
announcements are incoherent. On the other hand, a conservative think
tank, The Heritage Foundation, can give us the keys to his future
policy. This organization founded in the 1970s seeks to implement an
ultraconservative societal project in the hands of the executive branch:
it has very strongly influenced the policies of Reagan and Trump. For a
potential future mandate of the latter, it has written a "guide" in
2022. The "2025 project" lists a series of measures to quickly secure
the power of Republicans in all federal administrations and agencies,
combat the "woke" ideology through more racism, sexism and
discrimination, the deregulation of environmental standards and the
tightening of immigration policies. This report has been much talked
about regarding its treatment of abortion and birth rate in general, a
critical subject for many voters and which could once again turn against
the Republicans. Candidates: Only One Winner
While the Democratic camp has long ceased to be "the party of the
working class," the 2024 election marks a new turning point in the
reshaping of the American political landscape. Now, in addition to
celebrity endorsements, the country's biggest fortunes are increasingly
turning to this party. For Republicans, the disavowals are multiplying,
including among the group of the 100 richest and most influential CEOs
in the country, traditionally loyal to the party, who are virulently
attacking candidate Trump. Despite promises of corporate tax cuts, many
capitalist interests seem wary of the instability inside and outside the
country caused by the far-right candidate. All the more so since the
Democrats' strategy is convenient: decisions in favor of capital always
pass Congress and the White House, while a measure that is a little too
social will be blocked by the Republicans or a few Democratic
representatives in Congress.

Unions in Trouble
Campaigned by both sides, unions also have a weight, albeit slight, in
the 2024 campaign. The latest union movements, as well as the largely
favorable opinion that Americans have of them (70%), have made them
impossible to ignore. While no union has given its support to Trump's
campaign, six of the major organizations, including the UAW (which led
the auto strike last year) have given it to Harris's campaign. Only one
union, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, has refused to
support either, but its president had accepted an invitation to speak at
a Republican convention. The presence of Tim Walz (left-wing party) as a
candidate for Vice President on the Harris ticket has caused a lot of
talk: some wanted to see it as a sign that the Democrats will return to
a more social policy, others suspect a maneuver aimed at attracting the
union vote by a name rather than by real proposals. The second seems
more realistic since the weight of unions, and of the anti-capitalist
left, remains weak in the American political landscape. Certainly the
number of strikes is on the rise but these movements rarely go beyond
the framework of demands within a company or corporation.

A struggle that is still active
In 2024, the struggles have not stopped, on the contrary, as we can see
with the last strike launched at Boeing on September 13 and which is
still ongoing. This strike will be particularly important to follow, in
particular because of its scale (32,000 strikers) and its organization.
Indeed, strike funds were prepared in advance and workers had been asked
to save up in anticipation of a long standoff. Despite the fear of some
veterans, the new recruits, who are more precarious, have followed the
movement by a large majority and are organizing themselves to get
through the ordeal, sometimes by taking food jobs to hold on.
In addition to the many strikes, small or large, the country is still
experiencing a wave of mobilization on campuses to oppose the genocide
of Israel in Palestine, supported by the US government. The repression
is increasingly fierce, both by the police and by university
administrations, but does not seem to discourage students for the moment.

What can we remember from this year 2024 and this new electoral deadline?

As one might expect, the challenge of these elections is mainly to push
back the extreme right, no real improvement in living conditions is to
be expected.
If this had motivated abstentionist voters in 2020, this strategy could,
as elsewhere, quickly exhaust them. Especially since this abstention
and, to a certain extent, the Trump vote, can be explained by a fed-up
feeling with the Democratic policies pursued since the 1990s. In the
event of victory and, as usual, the Democrats will exploit certain
resources to maintain the status quo by invoking their powerlessness in
Congress or before the Supreme Court. At the same time, the Republicans
will continue to advance their far-right project thanks to the latter
and their local influence. Above all, the structure of the US state will
probably never allow the expression of demands threatening capitalist
interests, even moderate ones, outside of a quasi-revolutionary context,
as was the case at the beginning of the last century. Despite economic
performance, the country's infrastructure is in advanced deterioration,
as several reports have shown, particularly concerning bridges and the
state of roads. Climate disasters are multiplying and becoming more and
more costly. Poverty, the feeling of being downgraded and the lack of
social security are accentuating the social malaise that nationalism is
struggling to contain. Despite a revival of anti-capitalist demands,
they are struggling to permeate society.
Unionism is on the rise, but the contradictions that reign there will
only bring a little respite to American workers. There is an urgent need
to create mass revolutionary structures. Three words to follow:
"educate, agitate, organize"*; and collective work to be carried out to
finally overthrow capitalism, in the United States as elsewhere.

Quicheman, September 23, 2024

*Slogan taken up by the IWW (Industrial Workers of the World) union.

A unique electoral system
If there is an American exceptionalism, it is that of the electoral
system. This year, like every four years, three federal elections are
being played out: the presidency, the House of Representatives and the
Senate, which has considerable legislative weight because it can block
the adoption of laws. Still hated but unshakeable, the Electoral College
elects the president. This indirect election is based on the allocation
of a certain number of electors to each state: the result is that some
votes count less than others, especially for more populated states.
Another aspect of this system is that some states will decide the
November election in favor of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump: the
candidates therefore address them first. To get an idea of the
representativeness of this system, it is theoretically possible to win
the election with 27% of the popular vote. Moreover, no Republican
candidate for the presidency has obtained a majority of the votes in 20
years.
If the presidential election is a major issue, those of Congress (House
and Senate) are just as much. The legislative system is also designed to
favor the overrepresentation of sparsely populated states. Each state
elects 2 senators, which means that, for example, California has as many
as Wyoming, even though it is almost eight times more populated. The
control of a few small states by the Republicans therefore gives them
control over the legislative power, especially since the capital
Washington DC (more populated than Wyoming or Vermont), has no senator
and only has one representative with limited powers. This results in a
distortion that allows a party without a majority base, today the
Republicans, to be able to access power or, at least, block it in the
event of an alternation. Another issue in the election has been played
out in the shadows since 2020: gerrymandering or electoral
gerrymandering. The principle is simple: after each census, the
constituencies are redrawn to follow demographic changes. So far, so
good, except when the committees that do it are far from neutral. In
most Republican-dominated states, and especially in the Deep South
(former slave states), committees have perfected the art of
gerrymandering to maximize seats won in the House. According to some
experts, this practice has led to a change in the balance of power:
while 186 seats in the House were hotly contested in 1998, only 25 were
in the last election. The fight against this practice, inherited from
the racist methods that followed the Civil War, has led to many legal
battles and to the map that will be used in November. According to some,
it would be more neutral: that remains to be proven.

http://oclibertaire.lautre.net/spip.php?article4270
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