The fall of the barbarous Assad regime is a direct consequence of the
wars raging in Ukraine, Palestine, and Lebanon. We are glad that Assadhas gone, but are sceptical about the future for the Syrian toiling
masses. ---- Aleppo fell, and soon after the capital, Damascus. This was
despite the support of Russia, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Iranian
regime. The Islamists of Hayat Tharir al-Sham (HTS) , based in the Idlib
area, were instrumental in capturing these cities. It was originally an
affiliate of Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State leader al-Baghdadi also had
connections with it. The leader of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, is
putting himself forward as a prospective new leader of Syria. He
promises freedom and democratic rights for all, but bearing in mind
HTS's history, its repressive record in Idlib, and similar promises made
by the Taliban in Afghanistan, then it seems that women and LGBQT people
have much to fear if HTS establishes overall control, as do the Kurds in
Syria.
Other forces ranged against the Assad regime are the Syrian National
Army (SNA), openly sponsored by the Erdogan government of the Turkish
state. This is an alliance of Islamist militias, militarily backed up by
the Turkish army. Its main preoccupation, under the guidance of its Turk
masters, are the Kurdish forces in Syria. They attacked the Kurdish
controlled region of Afrin in 2018, and carried out ethnic cleansing
there. Now they are attacking the Kurdish region of Tell Rifat, backed
up by Turkish artillery. Here the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are
located, an alliance of Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, Turkmen and others.
120,000 refugees from Afrin have fled there. The SDF also held a small
area of Aleppo until recently.
Due to the attack on Tell Rifat, the SDF has now withdrawn from Aleppo.
The SNA has seized Tell Rifat city and the refugee camps. The SDF is now
negotiating the evacuation of hundreds of thousands, many of them
already refugees from Afrin, to Rojava and Manbij. The situation thus
remains perilous for Syrian Kurds.
Also in fear are Syria's Shiites, who fear reprisals from the Sunni HTS,
as do the Alawites, a splinter from Shia Islam, and to which religious
sect the Assad family belonged.
The fall of the Assad regime has dealt a severe blow to both Russia and
Iran. Russia has been unable to provide the military support Assad
needed to survive, tied down as the Russian forces are in Ukraine.
Similarly, Iran has been damaged by the attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon
by Israeli forces.
The USA, Israel, and Turkey benefit from the new situation. Meanwhile,
the Syrian masses continue to suffer, with the HTS, SNA and the military
forces of the Assad regime, which are now manoeuvring to survive, ranged
against them. This is another stage in the inter-imperialist rivalry
between the USA and its allies, including the wily Erdogan regime, eager
to further its own interests, on one hand, and Russia and Iran on the
other. It remains to be seen whether the SNA and/or the HTS , will move
against the Autonomous Administration in north east Syria, a Kurdish
controlled enclave.
Already though, Israel has bombed chemical weapons and long range rocket
sites in Syria, afraid of them falling into Islamist hands. Turkey has
bombed the Kurdish zone, bringing it into conflict with its NATO ally,
the United States, which backs the Kurds.For its part, the USA has
bombed Islamic State sites in central Syria.
https://www.anarchistcommunism.org/2024/12/09/syria-assad-falls-but-no-celebration-for-the-syrian-masses/
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