The New Reality in the Middle East ---- Now, when this podcast episode
is being prepared, it is already clear that the Assad regime has fallen
in less than two weeks. Bashar al-Assad either died or fled somewhere.
His family ruled Syria since 1970. ---- The Middle East has been in the
world news for over a year now, mainly because of events around Israel.
Many Muslim leaders periodically declare that the Jewish state will be
destroyed. But pragmatic Islamists believe in the feasibility of
"throwing Israel into the sea" to about the same extent as Zyuganov
believes in the victory of communism.
Passions are much more heated in the intra-Arab ethno-religious
confrontations. Until recently, there were English and French colonies,
the Ottoman Empire. As a result, the borders of the Arab states that
emerged in the 20th century are drawn in such a way that in some
countries there are people who find it quite difficult to live in peace
with each other.
The most dramatic confrontation is between Sunni and Shiite Muslims.
Passions are running high, just like they were between Catholics and
Protestants in Europe several hundred years ago. The situation is
aggravated by the fact that Sunni and Shiite communities are often
located interspersed.
Iran is the citadel of Shiism and the guarantor of security for Shiites
in the region. For this purpose, the so-called "Iranian axis" was
formed. Until recently, it included the Houthis (they control part of
Yemen, where a long-standing civil war is going on), a number of groups
in Iraq (the state system there is also in ruins). As well as the Assad
regime in Syria (the Assad family belongs to the Alawite religious
group, close to Shiism) and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In the 1990s, Iran drew the Palestinian Sunni Hamas, a small group by
Middle Eastern standards, into its orbit. Supporting Hamas gave Iran
complicity in the "struggle of the Muslim world with Israel": which, as
noted above, is much more ritual than real.
But then October 2023 came, and Mr. Sinwar, apparently without
consulting his Iranian patrons, seriously attacked Israel. Sinwar
probably expected to draw the entire "Iranian axis" into his war. Which
was not ready for this and had no such plans.
But completely abandoning Hamas to the Zionists meant losing face for
Iran. The Lebanese Hezbollah was tasked with terrorizing Israel. It also
did not want to fight seriously, but shelled Israeli border villages for
a year. Israel built up its strength and largely destroyed Hezbollah.
Hezbollah's primary function was not "fighting Israel." It primarily
supported the Shiites in Lebanon itself and the Assad regime in
neighboring Syria. Hezbollah fought on Assad's side in the Syrian civil
war of the 2010s, and was noted for its atrocities against Assad's
Syrian opponents.
Before the war between Israel and Hezbollah, Bashar al-Assad controlled
most of Syria. He was supported by the military support of Russia and
Iran-Hezbollah. In parallel, there were several dozen small armies -
sympathetic Kurdish and unsympathetic Sunni Islamists of various kinds.
Bashar al-Assad's popularity was close to zero. About half a million
people died in the civil war of the 2010s in Syria, the country is in
chaos, political repression against dissidents, poverty. A detail little
known outside the Middle East is that one of the main sources of income
for the Assad regime in recent years has been drug trafficking. Bashar
al-Assad was a drug lord bigger than many Mexicans.
To the north of Syria is Sunni Turkey, and Erdogan has ambitions to, if
not annex part of Syria, then control the country.
When Hezbollah weakened, the combined forces of Turkish proxies and the
remnants of radical Sunnis from ISIS and Al-Qaeda moved to seize Syria.
While smashing Hezbollah, Israel predicted that Assad would have
problems, but did not think that they would arise so quickly. At the
time of preparing the podcast, Israel had amassed troops on the border
with Syria. What can be expected from the ISIS-Al-Qaeda crocodiles is a
big question.
At the same time, part of Syria was taken under control by the Kurds of
Rojava, whose social system is influenced by anarchism. This can only be
welcomed. Note that the Hevale Telegram channel has been relaunched,
with anarchist information from Syria in Russian. Subscribe! You can
also follow the latest Syrian news and analysis from comrades from
Rojava in a safer way: subscribe to the channel in Signal. There is also
a Telegram channel "Anarchist Struggle".
What does the collapse of the Assad regime mean for Putin? This is a
very serious blow to Iran, Putin's closest ally. According to
information available at the time of preparing the podcast, Sunni rebels
promised Iran not to slaughter the Alawites. But Syria will no longer
be, as under Assad, a warehouse for Iranian weapons, and projects to
plant Shiism in Syria will end. Previously, Iran could arm Hezbollah by
shipping weapons to Lebanon via Iraq and Syria, but now this is becoming
impossible.
The international "Iranian axis" is falling apart before our eyes. There
is also unrest inside Iran itself: let's see how much the international
failures will worsen the problems of the theocratic regime in Tehran itself.
Russian troops are hastily leaving Syria, a bunch of Russian weapons
have been captured by the Turkish-Al-Qaeda-ISIS coalition. An unpleasant
blow to Putin's pride: Russia has been fighting in Syria since the early
2010s, is losing its military presence in the Middle East, and Russian
businesses established in Syria.
Protests in Georgia
If Assad is done in Syria, protests are in full swing in Georgia.
Apparently, the peak will come in mid-December, when the current
president's term ends. Georgia is shaken by demonstrations, including
participation of anarchist relokants from Russia. Everything seems
clear: the ruling Georgian Dream party has suspended European
integration, is getting closer to the Russian Federation, and has begun
a fight against LGBT and "foreign agents" in the style of Russia in the
2010s. Georgian cops, while dispersing demonstrators, are getting
Russian-Belarusian training...
The author of this issue did not constantly follow the events in
Georgia. But after talking with several political relocates from the
Russian Federation living in Georgia, the situation does not look so
clear-cut. Georgia is currently experiencing economic growth because the
country has become a convenient transit hub for Europe and Asia, past
toxic Russia and Iran.
Many Georgians believe that it is good to partner with Europe, but it is
also necessary to build up ties with China within the framework of new
opportunities for the country in the Eurasian trade. Georgians, like
many other post-Soviet nations, are afraid of an obvious confrontation
with Putin. At the same time, Russia is a good market for Georgian wine
and fruit, and Russians are profitable tourists.
The "Georgian Dream" is the first government in Georgia since
Perestroika that is not waging war. The desire to rethink the situation
with Abkhaz separatism and find some new opportunities for dialogue
looks very sensible.
Until recently, the situation with Abkhazia in Georgia was attributed to
"Russian occupation." But it is enough to google the history of the
issue, and you will find obvious answers that it all began with the
desire of the post-Perestroika government in Georgia to subjugate
national minorities. That Putin pulled Abkhazia into Russia about ten
years after its separation from Georgia. In Abkhazia, Shamil Basayev is
still one of the heroes of the struggle for independence, ties with
Turkey are maintained, and only recently the people threw out the
president who initiated agreements with Putin that were unfavorable for
the Abkhaz.
Many Georgian oppositionists have aggressive anti-Russian rhetoric,
which also affects political relocates. As we have already seen in the
Baltics: when approximately the same wonderful people make money on
shady schemes around anti-Russian sanctions, and at the same time teach
people who had to flee Russia to "love Europe" and force them to
regularly repent of something.
Georgia has become one of the main places where Russians fled before the
full-scale invasion of Ukraine and immediately after. Now it is becoming
increasingly clear why many do not want to stay in Georgia.
Meanwhile in Russia
It would be funny if it were not so sad: a universal phrase describing a
significant part of the news from Russia. The bacchanalia of repressions
and bans continues. Posts on social networks or attempts to set fire to
penny relay cabinets on the railways are punished more severely than for
murder.
Having defeated the quad bikers and approaching the ban on abortions,
the prohibitionists are finding new objects for scourge. Initiatives are
appearing to ban children's champagne and non-alcoholic beer. Smoking,
by the way. Introduce rental licenses for books, similar to films.
Regular raids are being carried out in night clubs.
All this trash is clearly sanctioned by the authorities for a reason,
but to suppress any disagreement at the initial stage. Because the
country has enough problems: after the "test of the Oreshnik" the dollar
and euro soared, the 21% interest rate is making it increasingly
difficult to finance business, as well as the mortgage and construction
industry, the most important component of the Russian economy, is moving
towards collapse. The country simply does not have enough cops, there is
no money to bring the public utilities infrastructure into a humane form.
And every day of the war with Ukraine aggravates these problems.
According to what scenario and when we will clean out the Kremlin -
Syrian, Georgian or some other - is not yet on the agenda. But
everything can happen much faster than it seems.
Well, that's all for today! We remind you that in "Trends of Order and
Chaos" the participants of Autonomous Action and other authors give
anarchist assessments of current events. Listen to us on YouTube,
SoundCloud and other platforms, visit our website avtonom.org, subscribe
to our social networks and e-mail newsletter.
The issue was prepared by Listyev
https://avtonom.org/news/svergaya-vlasti-trendy-poryadka-i-haosa-epizod-187
_________________________________________
A - I N F O S N E W S S E R V I C E
By, For, and About Anarchists
Send news reports to A-infos-en mailing list
A-infos-en@ainfos.ca
is being prepared, it is already clear that the Assad regime has fallen
in less than two weeks. Bashar al-Assad either died or fled somewhere.
His family ruled Syria since 1970. ---- The Middle East has been in the
world news for over a year now, mainly because of events around Israel.
Many Muslim leaders periodically declare that the Jewish state will be
destroyed. But pragmatic Islamists believe in the feasibility of
"throwing Israel into the sea" to about the same extent as Zyuganov
believes in the victory of communism.
Passions are much more heated in the intra-Arab ethno-religious
confrontations. Until recently, there were English and French colonies,
the Ottoman Empire. As a result, the borders of the Arab states that
emerged in the 20th century are drawn in such a way that in some
countries there are people who find it quite difficult to live in peace
with each other.
The most dramatic confrontation is between Sunni and Shiite Muslims.
Passions are running high, just like they were between Catholics and
Protestants in Europe several hundred years ago. The situation is
aggravated by the fact that Sunni and Shiite communities are often
located interspersed.
Iran is the citadel of Shiism and the guarantor of security for Shiites
in the region. For this purpose, the so-called "Iranian axis" was
formed. Until recently, it included the Houthis (they control part of
Yemen, where a long-standing civil war is going on), a number of groups
in Iraq (the state system there is also in ruins). As well as the Assad
regime in Syria (the Assad family belongs to the Alawite religious
group, close to Shiism) and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In the 1990s, Iran drew the Palestinian Sunni Hamas, a small group by
Middle Eastern standards, into its orbit. Supporting Hamas gave Iran
complicity in the "struggle of the Muslim world with Israel": which, as
noted above, is much more ritual than real.
But then October 2023 came, and Mr. Sinwar, apparently without
consulting his Iranian patrons, seriously attacked Israel. Sinwar
probably expected to draw the entire "Iranian axis" into his war. Which
was not ready for this and had no such plans.
But completely abandoning Hamas to the Zionists meant losing face for
Iran. The Lebanese Hezbollah was tasked with terrorizing Israel. It also
did not want to fight seriously, but shelled Israeli border villages for
a year. Israel built up its strength and largely destroyed Hezbollah.
Hezbollah's primary function was not "fighting Israel." It primarily
supported the Shiites in Lebanon itself and the Assad regime in
neighboring Syria. Hezbollah fought on Assad's side in the Syrian civil
war of the 2010s, and was noted for its atrocities against Assad's
Syrian opponents.
Before the war between Israel and Hezbollah, Bashar al-Assad controlled
most of Syria. He was supported by the military support of Russia and
Iran-Hezbollah. In parallel, there were several dozen small armies -
sympathetic Kurdish and unsympathetic Sunni Islamists of various kinds.
Bashar al-Assad's popularity was close to zero. About half a million
people died in the civil war of the 2010s in Syria, the country is in
chaos, political repression against dissidents, poverty. A detail little
known outside the Middle East is that one of the main sources of income
for the Assad regime in recent years has been drug trafficking. Bashar
al-Assad was a drug lord bigger than many Mexicans.
To the north of Syria is Sunni Turkey, and Erdogan has ambitions to, if
not annex part of Syria, then control the country.
When Hezbollah weakened, the combined forces of Turkish proxies and the
remnants of radical Sunnis from ISIS and Al-Qaeda moved to seize Syria.
While smashing Hezbollah, Israel predicted that Assad would have
problems, but did not think that they would arise so quickly. At the
time of preparing the podcast, Israel had amassed troops on the border
with Syria. What can be expected from the ISIS-Al-Qaeda crocodiles is a
big question.
At the same time, part of Syria was taken under control by the Kurds of
Rojava, whose social system is influenced by anarchism. This can only be
welcomed. Note that the Hevale Telegram channel has been relaunched,
with anarchist information from Syria in Russian. Subscribe! You can
also follow the latest Syrian news and analysis from comrades from
Rojava in a safer way: subscribe to the channel in Signal. There is also
a Telegram channel "Anarchist Struggle".
What does the collapse of the Assad regime mean for Putin? This is a
very serious blow to Iran, Putin's closest ally. According to
information available at the time of preparing the podcast, Sunni rebels
promised Iran not to slaughter the Alawites. But Syria will no longer
be, as under Assad, a warehouse for Iranian weapons, and projects to
plant Shiism in Syria will end. Previously, Iran could arm Hezbollah by
shipping weapons to Lebanon via Iraq and Syria, but now this is becoming
impossible.
The international "Iranian axis" is falling apart before our eyes. There
is also unrest inside Iran itself: let's see how much the international
failures will worsen the problems of the theocratic regime in Tehran itself.
Russian troops are hastily leaving Syria, a bunch of Russian weapons
have been captured by the Turkish-Al-Qaeda-ISIS coalition. An unpleasant
blow to Putin's pride: Russia has been fighting in Syria since the early
2010s, is losing its military presence in the Middle East, and Russian
businesses established in Syria.
Protests in Georgia
If Assad is done in Syria, protests are in full swing in Georgia.
Apparently, the peak will come in mid-December, when the current
president's term ends. Georgia is shaken by demonstrations, including
participation of anarchist relokants from Russia. Everything seems
clear: the ruling Georgian Dream party has suspended European
integration, is getting closer to the Russian Federation, and has begun
a fight against LGBT and "foreign agents" in the style of Russia in the
2010s. Georgian cops, while dispersing demonstrators, are getting
Russian-Belarusian training...
The author of this issue did not constantly follow the events in
Georgia. But after talking with several political relocates from the
Russian Federation living in Georgia, the situation does not look so
clear-cut. Georgia is currently experiencing economic growth because the
country has become a convenient transit hub for Europe and Asia, past
toxic Russia and Iran.
Many Georgians believe that it is good to partner with Europe, but it is
also necessary to build up ties with China within the framework of new
opportunities for the country in the Eurasian trade. Georgians, like
many other post-Soviet nations, are afraid of an obvious confrontation
with Putin. At the same time, Russia is a good market for Georgian wine
and fruit, and Russians are profitable tourists.
The "Georgian Dream" is the first government in Georgia since
Perestroika that is not waging war. The desire to rethink the situation
with Abkhaz separatism and find some new opportunities for dialogue
looks very sensible.
Until recently, the situation with Abkhazia in Georgia was attributed to
"Russian occupation." But it is enough to google the history of the
issue, and you will find obvious answers that it all began with the
desire of the post-Perestroika government in Georgia to subjugate
national minorities. That Putin pulled Abkhazia into Russia about ten
years after its separation from Georgia. In Abkhazia, Shamil Basayev is
still one of the heroes of the struggle for independence, ties with
Turkey are maintained, and only recently the people threw out the
president who initiated agreements with Putin that were unfavorable for
the Abkhaz.
Many Georgian oppositionists have aggressive anti-Russian rhetoric,
which also affects political relocates. As we have already seen in the
Baltics: when approximately the same wonderful people make money on
shady schemes around anti-Russian sanctions, and at the same time teach
people who had to flee Russia to "love Europe" and force them to
regularly repent of something.
Georgia has become one of the main places where Russians fled before the
full-scale invasion of Ukraine and immediately after. Now it is becoming
increasingly clear why many do not want to stay in Georgia.
Meanwhile in Russia
It would be funny if it were not so sad: a universal phrase describing a
significant part of the news from Russia. The bacchanalia of repressions
and bans continues. Posts on social networks or attempts to set fire to
penny relay cabinets on the railways are punished more severely than for
murder.
Having defeated the quad bikers and approaching the ban on abortions,
the prohibitionists are finding new objects for scourge. Initiatives are
appearing to ban children's champagne and non-alcoholic beer. Smoking,
by the way. Introduce rental licenses for books, similar to films.
Regular raids are being carried out in night clubs.
All this trash is clearly sanctioned by the authorities for a reason,
but to suppress any disagreement at the initial stage. Because the
country has enough problems: after the "test of the Oreshnik" the dollar
and euro soared, the 21% interest rate is making it increasingly
difficult to finance business, as well as the mortgage and construction
industry, the most important component of the Russian economy, is moving
towards collapse. The country simply does not have enough cops, there is
no money to bring the public utilities infrastructure into a humane form.
And every day of the war with Ukraine aggravates these problems.
According to what scenario and when we will clean out the Kremlin -
Syrian, Georgian or some other - is not yet on the agenda. But
everything can happen much faster than it seems.
Well, that's all for today! We remind you that in "Trends of Order and
Chaos" the participants of Autonomous Action and other authors give
anarchist assessments of current events. Listen to us on YouTube,
SoundCloud and other platforms, visit our website avtonom.org, subscribe
to our social networks and e-mail newsletter.
The issue was prepared by Listyev
https://avtonom.org/news/svergaya-vlasti-trendy-poryadka-i-haosa-epizod-187
_________________________________________
A - I N F O S N E W S S E R V I C E
By, For, and About Anarchists
Send news reports to A-infos-en mailing list
A-infos-en@ainfos.ca
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