Syria has been freed from a dictatorship that has been in place for
fifty years and has caused nearly half a million deaths. The countries
surrounding it have cards to play and are already placing their pawns.
And if the different factions are going to try to share or fight for
power, the Syrian people may have the opportunity here to rebuild solid
and democratic institutions. ---- The regime of Bashar Al Assad fell on
December 7. The end point of a lightning offensive launched on November
27, the day after the truce between Hezbollah and Israel, the armed
opposition took Damascus without any real resistance. Deprived of the
support of his Russian and Iranian sponsors, Bashar Al Assad, heir to a
dictatorship in place for more than fifty years, fled the country for
Russia. It is responsible for nearly half a million deaths in fifteen
years and the flight of six to seven million refugees.
The attack immediately revealed the state of decay of the Syrian army,
incapable of stabilizing a front line despite the Russian air advantage.
The collapse of the regime allowed the historically more liberal
factions of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which had unsuccessfully favored
negotiation with the regime, to rise up and liberate the south of the
country.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) had to face attacks by the Turkish
state militias grouped in the Syrian National Army (SNA), which directly
threatens the democratic project of the Autonomous Administration of
North and East Syria (AANES).
Political uncertainty looms
With the fall of the regime, the Syrian people, in their plural
identities, face many challenges. Healing the wounds of war, not to
mention those of half a century of dictatorship, requires titanic
collective efforts.
First, the new dominant forces of the revolution, led by HTS[1], will
seek unification within their ranks. This coalition made up of factions
that had a common goal, that of the fall of the regime, must now face
the seizure of power and the war for positions.
The almost total absence of a "counter-revolutionary" army allows time
for politics, with the beginning of a transition between ministers of
the old regime and names submitted by HTS. The fact remains that here
too, the temptations of exclusive appropriation of power are great. HTS,
with their leader Ahmed Hussein al-Shar'a and his current legitimacy,
could gain the upper hand militarily over the other factions and assert
it politically.
For now, Mohammed al-Bashir, the pre-transitional prime minister
appointed by HTS, has until early March to form a transitional
government. Once formed, it will work on a new constitution.
Currently, the territory of Syria, heir to the colonial divisions of the
last century[2], contains different identities. Some "ethnic" (Arabs,
Kurds, etc.), others religious (Sunnis, Shiites, Alawites, Christians,
etc.), or ethno-religious as is the case for the Druze.
Syria is the heir to this History, and its territory, fragmented, is
composed of different communities and political projects. The case of
AANES is one of the major issues. It controls a territory dominated by
Kurds, a historically oppressed people, where a democratic society
project has been implemented since 2012. All this is not without
obstacles and contradictions, in particular its links with the old
regime and Western imperialism, in the face of threats from Daesh and
the Turkish state.
Several questions arise today. Will the transitional government,
dominated by Islamists and pan-Arabs, be able to overcome its
constraints to make room for cultural and political diversity in the
draft constitution? What project is AANES developing for a Syria without
the dictatorship of the Al Assads? What places will minorities have? If
HTS has abandoned many of the characteristics of a classic jihadist
group and is seeking to build a façade of respectability and reliability
to govern a population, the alarming reports on human rights violations
during its governance of Idlib show a flagrant discrepancy with their
current discourse.
Finding an economic and social recovery
The collapse of the Assad regime is also due to a catastrophic economic
situation. In addition to the predation and clan and military corruption
since the beginning of the dictatorship, economic cannibalism was added
during the civil war period. From state services to neighborhood
militias, entire sectors were enriched or held together only by pillage.
One of the regime's main sources of income was the production, sale
and export of drugs.
This situation led to a record devaluation of the Syrian currency,
complicating even the purchase of basic necessities.
One of the priorities for the transitional government is also the
lifting of Western sanctions, necessary for the entry of international
funds. This cannot be long because the predation of capitalists is
already in place, particularly in the Turkish construction sector, whose
shares have seen a surge since the fall of the regime[3]. Until now, the
situation has only been overcome by deprivation, resourcefulness and
solidarity in entire sections of Syrian society.
In addition to the economic issue, there is the social issue. The images
of prisoners released from the regime's atrocious jails, and those of
families still searching for their missing loved ones, open a new
judicial chapter. We must respect a time of recognition of suffering
followed by a time of reparation. Justice will have to overcome the
chasm of open wounds and will be the basis of an inter-community
reconciliation, but also an intra-community reconciliation. The youth
sacrificed and crushed for decades will be able to overcome such a
legacy by participating in the reconstruction of anchored, solid and
democratic institutions.
The games of imperialisms
The games of the regional and Western imperialist powers weigh heavily
on Syria and each will seek to take advantage of the events: Russia has
suffered a major setback, abandoned Assad and will seek to negotiate
with the new Syrian power to keep its military bases on the Syrian coast.
Israel took advantage of the vacuum left by the regime to invade the
Golan Heights. The capture of Mount Hermont constitutes a major military
advantage, allowing it to cover, by its height, most of Syria and
southern Lebanon. Israel has carried out more than 300 bombings to
destroy the regime's weapons. Its main gain is the cutting off of the
supply of weapons from Iran to the Lebanese Hezbollah. It is likely that
Israel will continue to bomb Syria wherever and whenever it wants, with
the approval of the United States.
Turkey has a priority objective: to prevent any unification of the
autonomous Kurdish territories on its borders, to put an end to the
AANES and the PKK. Its ANS proxies have invaded the Kurdish
neighborhoods of Aleppo, Tall Rifat, Manbij, threatened Kobane in
mid-December and still occupy the canton of Afrin, and large areas in
the north of the country.
Iran, as well as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, seem out of
the game for the moment.
The United States is also present in Syria in the name of the fight
against terrorism. It positions itself as mediators between Turkey and
the AANES, having an interest in the survival of the AANES, their
partner against Daesh. For the moment, it is taking the position of
observers.
What are the prospects? In the current period and in the future, several
challenges are facing the Syrian people, with their plural identities
and cultures on one side, foreign appetites and interference on the
other, and an experimentation of what has never been known outside of
the dictatorship.
For revolutionaries, looking away from Syria because the revolution is
not communist or self-managed would be at the very least a mistake. Are
we achieving that here? Because in the folds of history, a society
subjected to so many challenges could open up paths, examples to follow:
how wounds are healed; how collective confidence can be built; how to
build something other than domination and oppression?
The possible dead ends are known, such as the return of a dictatorship
under other colors.
Perhaps hope will come from a crossroads of expectations and
initiatives, between the return of exiles who will participate in
revitalizing political, economic and social life, the collective refusal
to perpetuate the circle of vengeance, and the pressure that this civil
society will put on those in power.
We think for a moment about the Yugoslav example and its failure, we
look at Syria convinced that the story is not over.
Marouane (UCL Nantes), Pauline (UCL Finistère) and Dahel (UCL Fougères)
Validate
[1]Hayat Tahrir al-Cham, rebel faction, rival of the ANS.
[2]Notably via the Sykes-Picot Agreements or the Balfour Declaration in
which the Western powers organized the territorial division of the
Middle East.
[3]Turkish construction sector awakens with the collapse of the Syrian
regime, on tunisienumerique.com, December 10, 2024.
https://www.unioncommunistelibertaire.org/?Chute-du-regime-syrien-Impasse-ou-opportunite-pour-le-peuple
_________________________________________
A - I N F O S N E W S S E R V I C E
By, For, and About Anarchists
Send news reports to A-infos-en mailing list
A-infos-en@ainfos.ca
fifty years and has caused nearly half a million deaths. The countries
surrounding it have cards to play and are already placing their pawns.
And if the different factions are going to try to share or fight for
power, the Syrian people may have the opportunity here to rebuild solid
and democratic institutions. ---- The regime of Bashar Al Assad fell on
December 7. The end point of a lightning offensive launched on November
27, the day after the truce between Hezbollah and Israel, the armed
opposition took Damascus without any real resistance. Deprived of the
support of his Russian and Iranian sponsors, Bashar Al Assad, heir to a
dictatorship in place for more than fifty years, fled the country for
Russia. It is responsible for nearly half a million deaths in fifteen
years and the flight of six to seven million refugees.
The attack immediately revealed the state of decay of the Syrian army,
incapable of stabilizing a front line despite the Russian air advantage.
The collapse of the regime allowed the historically more liberal
factions of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which had unsuccessfully favored
negotiation with the regime, to rise up and liberate the south of the
country.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) had to face attacks by the Turkish
state militias grouped in the Syrian National Army (SNA), which directly
threatens the democratic project of the Autonomous Administration of
North and East Syria (AANES).
Political uncertainty looms
With the fall of the regime, the Syrian people, in their plural
identities, face many challenges. Healing the wounds of war, not to
mention those of half a century of dictatorship, requires titanic
collective efforts.
First, the new dominant forces of the revolution, led by HTS[1], will
seek unification within their ranks. This coalition made up of factions
that had a common goal, that of the fall of the regime, must now face
the seizure of power and the war for positions.
The almost total absence of a "counter-revolutionary" army allows time
for politics, with the beginning of a transition between ministers of
the old regime and names submitted by HTS. The fact remains that here
too, the temptations of exclusive appropriation of power are great. HTS,
with their leader Ahmed Hussein al-Shar'a and his current legitimacy,
could gain the upper hand militarily over the other factions and assert
it politically.
For now, Mohammed al-Bashir, the pre-transitional prime minister
appointed by HTS, has until early March to form a transitional
government. Once formed, it will work on a new constitution.
Currently, the territory of Syria, heir to the colonial divisions of the
last century[2], contains different identities. Some "ethnic" (Arabs,
Kurds, etc.), others religious (Sunnis, Shiites, Alawites, Christians,
etc.), or ethno-religious as is the case for the Druze.
Syria is the heir to this History, and its territory, fragmented, is
composed of different communities and political projects. The case of
AANES is one of the major issues. It controls a territory dominated by
Kurds, a historically oppressed people, where a democratic society
project has been implemented since 2012. All this is not without
obstacles and contradictions, in particular its links with the old
regime and Western imperialism, in the face of threats from Daesh and
the Turkish state.
Several questions arise today. Will the transitional government,
dominated by Islamists and pan-Arabs, be able to overcome its
constraints to make room for cultural and political diversity in the
draft constitution? What project is AANES developing for a Syria without
the dictatorship of the Al Assads? What places will minorities have? If
HTS has abandoned many of the characteristics of a classic jihadist
group and is seeking to build a façade of respectability and reliability
to govern a population, the alarming reports on human rights violations
during its governance of Idlib show a flagrant discrepancy with their
current discourse.
Finding an economic and social recovery
The collapse of the Assad regime is also due to a catastrophic economic
situation. In addition to the predation and clan and military corruption
since the beginning of the dictatorship, economic cannibalism was added
during the civil war period. From state services to neighborhood
militias, entire sectors were enriched or held together only by pillage.
One of the regime's main sources of income was the production, sale
and export of drugs.
This situation led to a record devaluation of the Syrian currency,
complicating even the purchase of basic necessities.
One of the priorities for the transitional government is also the
lifting of Western sanctions, necessary for the entry of international
funds. This cannot be long because the predation of capitalists is
already in place, particularly in the Turkish construction sector, whose
shares have seen a surge since the fall of the regime[3]. Until now, the
situation has only been overcome by deprivation, resourcefulness and
solidarity in entire sections of Syrian society.
In addition to the economic issue, there is the social issue. The images
of prisoners released from the regime's atrocious jails, and those of
families still searching for their missing loved ones, open a new
judicial chapter. We must respect a time of recognition of suffering
followed by a time of reparation. Justice will have to overcome the
chasm of open wounds and will be the basis of an inter-community
reconciliation, but also an intra-community reconciliation. The youth
sacrificed and crushed for decades will be able to overcome such a
legacy by participating in the reconstruction of anchored, solid and
democratic institutions.
The games of imperialisms
The games of the regional and Western imperialist powers weigh heavily
on Syria and each will seek to take advantage of the events: Russia has
suffered a major setback, abandoned Assad and will seek to negotiate
with the new Syrian power to keep its military bases on the Syrian coast.
Israel took advantage of the vacuum left by the regime to invade the
Golan Heights. The capture of Mount Hermont constitutes a major military
advantage, allowing it to cover, by its height, most of Syria and
southern Lebanon. Israel has carried out more than 300 bombings to
destroy the regime's weapons. Its main gain is the cutting off of the
supply of weapons from Iran to the Lebanese Hezbollah. It is likely that
Israel will continue to bomb Syria wherever and whenever it wants, with
the approval of the United States.
Turkey has a priority objective: to prevent any unification of the
autonomous Kurdish territories on its borders, to put an end to the
AANES and the PKK. Its ANS proxies have invaded the Kurdish
neighborhoods of Aleppo, Tall Rifat, Manbij, threatened Kobane in
mid-December and still occupy the canton of Afrin, and large areas in
the north of the country.
Iran, as well as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, seem out of
the game for the moment.
The United States is also present in Syria in the name of the fight
against terrorism. It positions itself as mediators between Turkey and
the AANES, having an interest in the survival of the AANES, their
partner against Daesh. For the moment, it is taking the position of
observers.
What are the prospects? In the current period and in the future, several
challenges are facing the Syrian people, with their plural identities
and cultures on one side, foreign appetites and interference on the
other, and an experimentation of what has never been known outside of
the dictatorship.
For revolutionaries, looking away from Syria because the revolution is
not communist or self-managed would be at the very least a mistake. Are
we achieving that here? Because in the folds of history, a society
subjected to so many challenges could open up paths, examples to follow:
how wounds are healed; how collective confidence can be built; how to
build something other than domination and oppression?
The possible dead ends are known, such as the return of a dictatorship
under other colors.
Perhaps hope will come from a crossroads of expectations and
initiatives, between the return of exiles who will participate in
revitalizing political, economic and social life, the collective refusal
to perpetuate the circle of vengeance, and the pressure that this civil
society will put on those in power.
We think for a moment about the Yugoslav example and its failure, we
look at Syria convinced that the story is not over.
Marouane (UCL Nantes), Pauline (UCL Finistère) and Dahel (UCL Fougères)
Validate
[1]Hayat Tahrir al-Cham, rebel faction, rival of the ANS.
[2]Notably via the Sykes-Picot Agreements or the Balfour Declaration in
which the Western powers organized the territorial division of the
Middle East.
[3]Turkish construction sector awakens with the collapse of the Syrian
regime, on tunisienumerique.com, December 10, 2024.
https://www.unioncommunistelibertaire.org/?Chute-du-regime-syrien-Impasse-ou-opportunite-pour-le-peuple
_________________________________________
A - I N F O S N E W S S E R V I C E
By, For, and About Anarchists
Send news reports to A-infos-en mailing list
A-infos-en@ainfos.ca
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