While the political crisis continues to overwhelm France, without a
government that enjoys the support of Parliament, the German governmenthas resigned and Germany is preparing to go to the polls on February 23:
the weakness of the governments of the two countries that have always
played a leading role in the European Union creates a situation of
extreme weakness for Europe, certified by the fact that Brussels and its
action are totally in the hands of the incapable and failed management
of Ursula von der Leyen and Roberta Metzola. Alongside them is a weak
and fragile Commission, subject to the moods of an uncertain and
changing majority, composed of people with no experience in managing
international relations: yet this is happening while the Union is called
upon to manage its first defeat on the battlefield, given that the war
in Ukraine is moving towards its conclusion which will inevitably see
the coalition of Western countries succumb on the battlefield, aligned
in support of a corrupt, totally illiberal, economically bankrupt,
demographically destroyed State which, reduced in its territorial
dimension and deprived of its main economic resources, presents Europe
with the bill for reconstruction.
But that is not all because by making its admission to the Union an
indisputable condition, it introduces a huge mass of inconsistencies and
violations of the community aequis such as to totally distort it, to the
point of perverting the characteristics of the Union.
An overall weakening of the European Union will be inevitable, which
will benefit the United States and rejoice the United Kingdom, which
will once again see its security policy characterized by proximity to a
weak and divided continent realized.
Germany at the vote
The German crisis has come to a head with the resignation of the Scholz
government, which after having obtained a vote of no confidence with 394
votes against, 207 in favor and 116 abstentions, the Bundestag saw the
Chancellor deliver to Bellevue Castle in the hands of the President of
the Republic, Frank Walter Steinmeier, the resignation of the minority
government formed with the Greens and ask to dissolve Parliament and
fill new elections.
After a debate in the middle that the Germans were able to follow live
on TV, the Semaforo coalition appeared in all its weakness of its
ability to realize the program for which it was born and the
interventions of the various leaders were transformed into pre-election
rallies disguised as declarations of vote on the government.
With an effort of imagination, the catatonic outgoing chancellor claims
the positive results and the adoption of "substantial measures in favor
of businesses and citizens", attributing the executive crisis to the
betrayal of Lindner's liberals, promptly defended by the leader of the
CDU Merz, to prefigure future government alliances and denounces that
the country's competitiveness has been sacrificed in the name of the
"unsustainable" universal welfare. The attack is welcomed by Linder who
asserts his ultra-liberal line by denouncing the latest emergency
measures approved by the government, including the mini-discount on
taxes on some basic necessities such as butter, declaring that.
"They do not increase the GDP"
It is certainly strange that the German Parliament is raising the issue
of the increase in the price of butter used as an indicator of the
supposed crisis of the Russian economy, which instead of the German one
now in recession, marches at the rate of the 6% annual increase in GDP.
Even for the opposition parties, the opportunity is a great one to
propagandize their positions: Wagenknecht of the red-brown party takes
advantage of it to undermine Scholz, Merz and Lindner. the CDU, the
liberals, the Linke and the AfD, blaming their warmongering choices for
the main cause of the crisis that is upsetting the country and that is
degrading the conditions of well-being, putting the welfare system in
crisis. He declares that if the price to pay is the well-being of the
German population, his party will do everything to defend its interests.
Alice Weidel, leader of the AfD and candidate for chancellor, although
aware of the pact between the parties that excludes her from any
alliance, even if hers will be the second party in Germany, presents
herself in an institutional double-breasted suit, running for a
government role declaring herself ready to fight to "strengthen Europe's
presence in NATO, because European interests are not those of the USA".
Squalidly, Green Party leader Robert Habeck of the Greens declares that
he will vote for the extension and is preparing for a difficult and
unlikely alliance with the CDU-CSU.
to which he is linked by his position on the war in Ukraine, which is
strongly supportive of the conflict.
Given this situation, Scholz appears confident that the electoral debate
will allow the SPD to bring out the "good things" done by its
government. And to come back on its opponent, its main opponent, the CDU
leader Friedrich Merz, who for his part takes note of the SPD's unlikely
comeback among the electorate, predicting a result of over 20% for the
party, which is also highly unlikely. His main criticism of the SPD is
that it has not fulfilled the promise of the Zeitenwende, the military
turnaround: "It had this chance, it did not take advantage of it," he
declares, and in doing so he does not realize that he is giving credit
to those of his left-wing voters who reproach the party for its support
of the war.
What is certain is that whoever governs the first economic power in
Europe must be that in the public budget of 2025 there will be no more
money available, unless the totem of austerity is broken, as will happen
with defense spending.
The French crisis
As was predictable, Macron's dream of having a government for the
country was shattered in the face of the approval of the budget law and
the government of President Barnier, without a majority, fell in the
face of the motion of no confidence, thanks to the cross-vote of the
right and the left. Faced with the need to provide for the needs of the
State, the National Assembly unanimously adopted a special bill aimed at
allowing the executive to collect taxes and contract loans on the
markets to guarantee the continuity of the State and social security, in
the absence of a budget for 2025 (The equivalent of a law on provisional
exercise).
On December 13, Macron tasked François René Jean Lucien Bayrou with
forming a new government. The prime minister-designate has been
president of the Democratic Movement since its foundation in 2007 and is
one of the exponents of the center. A candidate for the presidential
elections in 2002, 2007 and 2012, he was always unelected and since 2004
he has been president of the European Democratic Party (EDP). He has
been a minister and member of the European Parliament several times. He
has had numerous legal troubles: he was implicated in the use of funds
intended for parliamentary assistants, for complicity and his own undue
use of public funds in 2019; He should succeed where Borne, Arral and
Barnier have failed. Of Catholic orientation, he has been twice Minister
of Education; in this role he has proposed questionable interventions on
the French education system. The only success of his political career
can be cited as the lesson given to the mayor of Pau, a position he
however only achieved in 2014 after two failed attempts. Perhaps this is
why he cannot give up this position, so much so that he intends to keep
it even if his attempt to form a government is successful.
On September 3, 2020, Bayrou was appointed High Commissioner for
Planning by President Emmanuel Macron.
It is extremely difficult to predict whether Michel Barnier's attempt
will succeed: if on the right and in the center-right the agreements
seem to be proceeding well, the left wing, environmentalists and the
left continue to reject the Prime Minister's proposals. On the Macron
side, tension is growing with Michel Barnier on the issue of the budget,
in particular on a potential increase in taxes, so much so that the
latter are asking for a "clarification" of the political line of the
prime minister-designate given that such a choice would go against the
line defended for seven years by Emmanuel Macron. Even the Republicans,
of which Michel Barnier is a member, are hostile to him. Gabriella
Attal, former prime minister and president of the Ensemble pour la
République (EPR) group, also asked her successor to clarify his
"political line, particularly on possible tax increases and large public
budgets, making the issue a prerequisite for granting confidence to the
new government.
Things are not going any better in the talks with Élisabeth Borne and
Gérald Darmanin, given that the prime minister-designate has declared
that he has found a very serious budgetary situation that will have to
be remedied in any case. The latter, he assured France 2 that it is "out
of the question" ... "to enter" a government that increases taxes or
even "support it". "Increasing taxes is the easiest way", "I will not
participate in a government that is not clear on the issue of taxes", he
added.
If this is the situation with the forces of the right and center. Even
members of the left continue to reject the proposals of the minister in
charge, including those close to former Socialist President François
Hollande, such as former Agriculture Minister Stéphane Le Foll.
The approach adopted with the former environmentalist MEP Karima Delli
has also not been successful. As things stand, it seems very unlikely
that the hunt for supporters of the future government on the left will
bear positive fruit, as it is believed that revenue in a government that
will inevitably have to embrace austerity and increase taxes is out of
the question.
The country as a whole would need to carry out an objective examination
of the situation and thus discover that it must realize that the
resources to continue to conduct a policy of grandeur are not there,
that the country's commitment to supporting the war in Ukraine,
implemented by operating in the folds of the budget to allocate hidden
resources to financing the war, have created a situation of accounting
disorder for which sooner or later it will be necessary to give a public
account. Franco-Rhine capitalism seems to have entered a deep crisis,
caused by the de facto disinvestment, especially by Russia, of the
French hegemonic presence in Central Africa and this while a policy of
global presence of France on the international scene with the ambitions
of the former colonial empire is no longer sustainable.
It is necessary to take note of the fact that the policy of attacking
Russia with the support of Ukraine, while it has given rise to the lack
of low-cost oil and gas supplies for Germany, has received an answer for
France through an asymmetric war, which has seen Russia settle in to
replace the French presence in the former colonies of Central Africa,
calling into question the direct supply of uranium that goes to fuel
French nuclear power production, thus placing an economic and strategic
mortgage on French policy in relation to energy and at the same time to
the control of the protected market constituted by the former African
colonies. Even if these are unconfessed and unspeakable consequences,
the war in Ukraine and the support given to it by France is one of the
causes, in addition to structural errors and lack of reforms, which are
at the root of the French economic crisis.
The crisis of France Germany and the European balances
The parallel and contemporary crisis of France and Germany requires a
change in the policies of the two States and at the same time requires a
revision of the European balances, since only through a strengthening of
the community policy can that push come to overcome with courageous
decisions and the search for peace, the deep and structural causes of
the crisis. It must be acknowledged that the European Union needs rapid
common decisions and that this is incompatible with the principle of
unanimity. The pre-eminence of the economies of at least 5 of the States
that constitute the Union must be recognized, namely Frangia, Germany,
Italy, Poland, Spain, while at the same time reducing the decisional and
political weight of the Northern European countries, first of all the
Baltic countries.
Only under these conditions and at the same time recreating the
conditions for a low-cost energy supply through peaceful collaboration
with the Russian neighbor can those conditions of competitiveness be
recreated that can allow the social systems of the European Union to
allow and guarantee the existence of a space of prosperity and freedom
as Europe has known in the past.
G. C.
https://www.ucadi.org/2025/01/02/francia-e-germania-crisi-parallele/
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