In the eyes of international observers, the Turkish crisis exploded
almost out of the blue, to the point that at first glance it isdifficult to understand the reasons. In reality, it comes from afar and
is the cause and effect of Turkey's hypertrophic growth and Erdogan's
attempt to rebuild the empire. Turkey, in fact, is part of that project
of rebuilding empires that affects many areas of the planet and
therefore the country looks with interest and priority attention to what
were the territories of the Ottoman Empire. ---- Erdogan rose to power
in Turkey in 2003 and has maintained control over it ever since,
changing over time the institutional form through which his power was
exercised, moving from the role of prime minister to that of Head of
State through progressive constitutional reforms that, while keeping
alive the republican and secular form of the country, essentially used
Islam to refound and rebuild the traditional structure of Turkish
society, addressing the problem of the multi-ethnic composition of the
population, definitively liquidating the Armenian question, containing
and marginalizing the Turkish component of the country. In truth,
Kemalist Turkey had already "solved" the Armenian problem with the
genocide and had done the same thing, albeit to a lesser extent, with
the Kurdish component, using the confiscated assets of these components
of society to satiate the poverty of the disinherited Turkish masses. At
the time, Turkey was emerging from the degeneration of Kemalism, which
resulted in military coups, and the country, tired, had sought refuge in
the re-Islamization of society to finally achieve stability.
The old traditional structures of the empire had educated and trained
the political class that was supposed to take over from the military,
and it is no coincidence that Erdogan was part of the Naqshbandi
brotherhood, from which a good part of the leadership of the Welfare
Party and its predecessors, right-wing and religious fundamentalist
parties, came, who had trained in a vocational school of the Justice and
Development Party (AKP) that aimed to give Turkey imams and state
officials through the acquisition of a mixed curriculum of technical and
Koranic subjects.
Having come to power, Erdogan used and strengthened the role of the
state to bring about a change in the country's economic policy and, even
though amid strong social contradictions, in the following decade the
country grew and its regional power policy took shape. His first concern
is the total subjugation of the army to his political designs, through
the strengthening and tight control of the military hierarchies, whose
loyalty he ensures, through the increase in military spending, the
strengthening of the role of the military in society, the adoption of a
foreign policy of re-establishing the Turkish presence in what Erdogan
considers the area of relevance of the new Turkey: what was the
territory of the empire.
Turkish imperial policy
Turkey considers the Balkans as an area of priority economic interest
and mends relations with the Islamic component of its population.
induced to look at Turkey not only as a cultural but also economic and
social referent. Turkey becomes the point of reference for the degraded
societies of the Balkan countries that look to the Turkish health system
for treatment, to the Turkish market as an outlet for their products and
as a supplier of services and goods, they see the expansion of an
increasingly dense network of cultural presence through the formation of
institutes and universities, while an intense financing activity
concerns the reconstruction of a network of large and small mosques, of
masadres, which must guarantee the re-Islamization of those societies.
The growth of the presence in publishing, in information, especially
television, through a production of entertainment programs, but which
also constitute a reference model of social life, is notable. The
Turkish presence is evident in Albania where Turkey has financed the
construction of the great mosque of Tirana, in the construction of
highly visible university structures along the road that serves the
airport of Tirana, and is negotiating the rental of a naval military
base south of Vlora. It is present in Bosnia with the support offered to
the Islamic component of the Confederation where it has financed not
only the construction of a dense network of mosques, recognizable by the
presence of two minutes, but also the reconstruction of the national
library of Sarajevo. It does even more in Macedonia by supporting the
Islamic components of the population and does not forget to exercise its
influence on the Muslim community of Bulgaria by continuing to receive
the periodic migrations of Islamic Bulgarians who move to Turkey,
pressured by the hostility of the Orthodox component of the country.
Turkey plays a similar role in the direction of its eastern borders,
projecting its influence towards Azerbaijan and the former Soviet
republics with a strong Islamic composition of Central Asia with which
Turkey builds collaborations and common investments, privileging the
energy sector and offering its territory to channel the oil production
of these countries towards Europe (TAP). Particularly active and growing
is the collaboration with the Azeris in an anti-Armenian function, in
accordance with the historical ties of opposition to the Armenian
component of the Caucasus. The strategic importance of the country grows
with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, where in an initial phase
Turkey plays an ambiguous role, supplying weapons to both sides, aware
of the fact that there are Turkish interests in Crimea and on the
Ukrainian coast, where there are Turkmen populations especially in the
area adjacent to Odessa. However, over time Turkey's attitude towards
the conflict changes due to the development of Turkish policy towards
Syria, where Turkey threatens to the point of undermining the Russian
presence, imposing a fragmentation of Syria in the area that constitutes
the precondition for taking possession of the water reserves present in
the north of the country and for expanding its control to part of the
oil wealth of the territory. Turkish interests in Syrian territory
concern above all the need to contain the independence activity of the
Kurdish component that risks constituting a political-military pole of
attraction for the Kurdish minority living in Turkey where it
constitutes more than 20% of the 85 million population of the country.
The existence of this problem leads Turkey to breed and finance the
remnants of jihadism constituted by refugees in camps that welcome, in
miserable conditions, the veterans of the ISIS adventure. With
unscrupulousness Erdogan does not hesitate to arm and support these
militias that lead to the recent overthrow of Assad with the result of
Turkey achieving at least in part its objectives, but at the same time,
to put in contact the territory controlled by the Turks with that which
suffers the expansionist and imperial aims of the Jewish state. Not
content with operating so much, Erdogan engages his country in Libya, an
ancient possession of the empire, through the support of General Haftar
and increases the Turkish presence in Africa through bilateral relations
with Somalia, Sudan, significantly expanding, and sometimes in
partnership with the growing Russian presence, the role of the country.
It so happens that Turkey, a member of NATO, is avoiding the dispute
with Russia concerning the control of the Black Sea, but is allied with
its cumbersome neighbor both in terms of oil sales and penetration into
Africa.
A giant with feet of clay
The current crisis seems to highlight the hypertrophy with which the
role of Turkey, its imperial refoundation has grown under the leadership
of Erdogan. The Turkish economy has entered a deep crisis that dates
back to 2013 and is destined to worsen. It depends largely on the lack
of foreign investment and manifests itself in a crisis of balances of
payments, a rapid increase in exchange rates, with a crisis of foreign
debt of the private sector, in a potential banking crisis and which is
accompanied by the growth of unemployment and ever higher inflation. The
devastating earthquake that hit Anatolia in February 2023 exposed
corruption related to the growth of the construction sector, the
involvement of the ruling party to the point that in the presidential
elections held in May Erdogan managed to be re-elected only after the
run-off and with a result of 52% of the consensus.
Since then the situation has worsened because inflation in 2024 exceeded
40% in consumer prices, compared to a substantial invariance of
salaries. People today see that in shops and markets prices increase by
30-50%. The government continues to increase the prices of gas,
electricity and petrol. The medium-term economic program (OVP), launched
by the government, which promised to fight inflation by assuming this
objective as its main priority, has failed. We are heading towards a
deep recession that leads to the shrinking of the real economy. Paying
the price for this increasingly deep crisis is not only the working
class but also the middle class that Erdogan has favored in his first
years of government and those who have been the main support for his
power. Above all, young people increasingly deprived of prospects for
the future realize the depth of the country's crisis and the need for a
profound change. In reality, accumulation in Turkish capitalism over the
last 16 years has reached a stalemate that cannot continue.
Faced with this situation, the President of the Republic, worried by the
progressive decline in consensus, demonstrated by the loss of control of
the government of the administrations of the main cities of the country
and in particular of the capital Istanbul, is taking cover with a
preventive action, trying to produce a "change" similar to the previous
ones and implement an authoritarian choice. Thus the government
declares: "We are fighting terrorism both nationally and
internationally, we are carrying out cross-border operations, of course,
this will have economic costs!".
In this way, the government justifies the increase in military spending
and keeps the army happy, which in exchange supports the authoritarian
turn that affects the whole society: it takes as its main objective the
elimination of every possible competitor in the race towards the
presidential elections, even if these are scheduled for 2028.
With the deepening of the crisis, Erdogan, in decline of consensus,
makes public the agreement that seems to have been reached with the
Kurdish leader Ocalan to dissolve the PKK and, fearing that the support
of the Kurds will go to his opponents, decides to have the mayor of
Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu, a potential candidate of the Republican
People's Party (CHP), the party that once belonged to Mustafa Kemal
Atatürk, impeached. The mayor is deposed, stripped of his degree by
administrative means, which would make him ineligible for the
presidential elections and imprisoned on charges of corruption and
terrorism, or for collusion with the Kurdish movement.
The Republican People's Party, the main opposition force, reacts dozens
and starts a signature campaign to ask for early elections and the
release of its candidate. It decides to hold primaries to designate the
candidate, which sees the participation of more than 15 million people
who indicate Ekrem Imamoglu as their candidate, while mass
demonstrations in the streets follow one another, but at the same time
substantially peaceful. In the first instance the judges drop the charge
of terrorism, but maintain that of corruption, accusations that the
opposition considers unfounded and politically motivated. while the
government seems isolated in the streets.
But the game is open and still all to be played.
G.C.
https://www.ucadi.org/2025/04/28/ipertrofia-turca/
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