While much attention is focused on Gaza, new peaks of international
tension are being reached in Europe. Poland has reported the incursionof numerous Russian drones into its airspace. According to Ukrainian
media and government sources, at least a large portion of these drones
are unarmed Gerbera drones, used to confuse anti-aircraft guns, and also
employ US and Australian electronic components. Of the many incidents of
border incursions during these three and a half years of war, this is
certainly the most widespread, particularly in Poland. Russia has denied
any responsibility, and Belarus has stated that these Russian drones
were knocked off course by electronic jamming weapons used by Ukrainian
anti-aircraft guns against drones.
Unfortunately, during these years of war, we have learned that war
propaganda creates such a curtain of disinformation that it is almost
impossible to understand not only the dynamics and true scope, but
sometimes even the very substance of certain facts. What is certain is
that both sides want to continue and expand the war, or at least move to
a further state of alert in Europe and a further level of border
militarization. Consider, for example, the announced deployment of
40,000 Polish soldiers on the country's eastern border and the ongoing
joint Russian and Belarusian military exercises just a few kilometers away.
What has been called the "drone crisis" has indeed led to increased
militarization of Poland's eastern border and increased NATO engagement
with the new Operation "Eastern Sentry." This operation aims to
strengthen NATO's capabilities on what is known as the "eastern flank."
It was launched in response to Poland's invocation of Article 4 of the
NATO Treaty, a procedure requiring consultation on military matters
within the Alliance Council in the event that the territorial integrity,
political independence, or security of a member state is threatened.
These procedures typically result in the initiation of military operations.
This is the third time in the last 11 years that Article 4 has been
invoked in the context of the conflict in Eastern Europe. The two
previous occasions coincided with significant turning points in the
conflict and with a greater military commitment from the Alliance. The
first was in March 2014, at the initiative of Latvia, Lithuania, and
Poland, following the occupation of Crimea by the Russian Federation.
The second, which coincided with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in
February 2022, was much broader, including not only Latvia, Lithuania,
and Poland, but also Estonia, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia,
and Romania. These precedents therefore suggest that we may be facing a
further turning point in both NATO's commitment and the nature of the
ongoing conflict.
Indeed, beyond the alarm raised by the media, statements from political
and military authorities seem to be marking the beginning of a new
phase. "We are prepared and ready to defend every inch of territory,"
declared NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. "Europe must fight,"
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen began her State of
the EU address, echoing Rutte's statement that "Europe will defend every
inch of its territory." Speaking of the need to build a "drone wall,"
she added that "We can therefore use our industrial strength to help
Ukraine respond to these drone attacks." She announced that the EU will
"conclude a Drone Alliance with Ukraine," for which it has already
secured new financing of EUR6 billion (already increased to EUR7
billion) for drone construction. In the same speech, she also stated
that "Ukraine will repay the loan only once Russia has paid the
compensation." Adding fuel to the fire are the words of Polish Prime
Minister Tusk: "This situation brings us all closer to open conflict,
closer than at any time since the Second World War."
Likewise, the speech by Italian President Sergio Mattarella, who
declared "we are moving on a ridge, where even unwittingly we can slide
into an abyss of violence," recalling the start of the First World War,
sounds more like a threat than the warning the press would like to
portray it.
Operation "Eastern Sentry" currently involves France with three Rafale
fighters, Germany with four Eurofighters, and Denmark with two F-16s and
an anti-aircraft frigate. The United Kingdom has announced its
participation. Rome appears to be still unsure about what to do. Some
newspapers report that the government is considering participating in
the operation with several F-35s, but that the League would prefer to
focus its military efforts on neocolonial missions in the Mediterranean
and Africa. This false internal opposition within the government,
portrayed by the official media, reminds us, however, of Italy's
significant involvement both in Eastern Europe and in several countries
in Africa and the so-called Middle East.
Italy has already been heavily involved in Eastern Europe since 2014.
Indeed, the area from the Baltic to the Black Sea is currently the
"front" where the largest number of Italian armed forces personnel and
equipment are deployed. A total of 3,503 soldiers, 1,155 land vehicles,
3 naval units, and 23 aircraft are deployed as follows: 453 soldiers, 3
ships, and 2 aircraft to strengthen NATO's naval presence in the Baltic,
Black Sea, and Mediterranean; 300 soldiers and 12 aircraft to strengthen
NATO air defense based in Rammstein, Germany; 2,340 soldiers, 1,052 land
vehicles, and 9 aircraft deployed in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and
Slovakia for the NATO Battlegroup, commanded by Italy and headquartered
in Bulgaria; 330 soldiers and 103 vehicles for the NATO Battlegroup in
Latvia; and 80 soldiers for the European EUMAM training mission for the
Ukrainian armed forces. It should be noted that in the East, Italy also
maintains a now "historic" presence in the Balkans, with 1,797 soldiers,
508 land vehicles, and 5 aircraft.
You might think: military missions in Italy must go through parliament;
Italy cannot be thrown into war over a diplomatic incident or a simple
provocation. Wrong! This is no longer the case. Since this year, the
government has effectively had carte blanche over military missions. A
"High and Very High Operational Readiness Force" has been established,
which, as can be seen by comparing the numbers for the missions just
mentioned, represents a rather substantial contingent for the scale of
Italian military operations, comprising 2,867 soldiers, 359 land
vehicles, 4 naval vessels, and 15 aircraft. This contingent can be
deployed at the executive's discretion. Indeed, the parliamentary
documents relating to the approval of the military missions last April
state that the actual deployment of these forces "at the time of the
occurrence of the crisis or emergency, must in any case be approved by
the Council of Ministers, after notifying the President of the Republic.
The resolution is transmitted to the Chambers, which, within five days,
with specific guidelines, according to their respective regulations,
authorize or deny their deployment. Within ninety days of approval of
the guidelines, the Government reports to the Chambers on the
persistence of the crisis or emergency situations that led to the actual
deployment of the forces." Although the wording attempts to sugarcoat
the pill, the government has carte blanche over military interventions.
A mission, even with serious political and military implications, can be
launched exclusively at the government's initiative. Clearly, the
authorization after five days represents only a formal parliamentary
guarantee, since it intervenes after the fact. In this way, Law 168 of
2024 has partially reformed the procedures for participating in military
missions abroad, introducing greater opacity in parliamentary documents
and enabling interoperability between different missions, so that forces
deployed in one specific context can more easily be redeployed in
another as needed.
But the opaqueness of information and decision-making processes in the
military and beyond is not the only basis for these changes. They
formalize a trend already established in practice, thus providing legal
cover for the government's arrogance in this area, which has dominated
the political landscape for the past decades, under governments of all
stripes. But above all, it gives the executive more power in the
military sphere. This means, in times of international tension, more
power to implement a military campaign plan and have the tools ready in
case of war. When the government, the President of the Republic, or the
opposition parties candidly express alarm about the international
situation, speak of the risk of war, when they say that Italy wants
peace but that if necessary, it will do its part, they are actually
trying to convince us, the entire population, that war must be waged,
because they have been preparing for it for some time now. We must be
ready now to knock the ground out from under the feet of the masters of war.
Dario Antonelli
https://umanitanova.org/la-guerra-che-si-allarga-polonia-la-crisi-dei-droni/
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