With the Venezuela issue resolved, at least in Trump's world, the Iran issue has resurfaced, because it's now clear that POTUS is (sur)viving on fake solutions, such as the end of the Gaza war or the one between Thailand and Cambodia, as well as, indeed, the 12-13 day war with Iran, when Trump claimed to have annihilated Iran's nuclear capabilities thanks to the bombing of the uranium enrichment sites in Fordow and Isfahan in June 2025. In reality, the fighting ended more as a favor to Israel, whose territory had been heavily hit for the first time, than because the truce represented a real solution (a bit like a stunned boxer who asks the referee for time to regain his strength).
The nuclear issue wasn't the key issue, much less so is drug smuggling in connection with Venezuela. The underlying problem is that the US is losing global control and must make moves to secure at least control of key countries. Venezuela is part of its backyard, and what's more, it dared to export oil to China and Cuba. Iran, on the other hand, is part of the Middle East, the hunting ground of its super-ally, Israel, which feels threatened by Iran and has the resources, thanks to the weight of the enormous Zionist lobby in the US, to threaten retaliation even against Trump. Netanyahu has dictated four necessary conditions for him to accept an agreement with Iran: (i) zero uranium enrichment; (ii) no missiles with a range greater than 300 km; (iii) severing contact with friendly groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Hamas, etc.); (iv) disarmament of Hamas.Given these conditions, there is no possibility of a negotiated agreement, because accepting them would imply Iran abdicating its sovereignty; it would be like saying: we disarm because otherwise you will attack us. Furthermore, let's remember that the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons allows the use of uranium enriched to a certain level, if only for medical purposes. It's ridiculous that the media refuses to mention that this request comes from a country that has NOT even signed the Treaty (despite possessing atomic bombs). In reality, the condition most pressing to the genocidaires is the elimination of long-range missiles, and it doesn't take a genius to understand why.
In truth, there would be a simpler and better solution for the empire: regime change, as Trump has repeatedly stated. The recent unrest in Iran is an example of the preferred strategy of the near-Nobel Peace Prize winner, Donald J. Trump.
Analyzing the December events in detail, we cannot deny that they were partly the consequence of misguided Iranian domestic policies, but there is no doubt that we are also facing external provocations that are strongly reminiscent of the Arab Spring and the Maidan movement in Ukraine.
In fact, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly boasted that the various sanctions imposed on Iran had put the Persian economy in difficulty. Add to this that the final straw was a financial maneuver against the Rial, which forced the Iranian central bank to devalue it. The plan was precisely to overthrow the government under the pressure of a popular uprising. It was quickly discovered that the first to shoot were the rioters, killing hundreds of law enforcement officials, who only later intervened, responding with fire. Just for comparison, let's try to imagine what ICE in the United States would have done if one of their representatives were killed.
The outcome of the uprising, however, was not the desired one, and thus the Armada (a name, I hope, appropriate, recalling the end of the Spanish Armada) appears. Let's analyze the possible future scenario. I believe it's clear to Trump (perhaps the only thing he's clear about) that he can't afford a war lasting longer than a couple of weeks. He pitched himself to his voters, and won the election, presenting himself as someone who doesn't want endless wars and who wants to appeal to the very impoverished middle class. Considering that midterm elections are at the end of the year, further military involvement would be disastrous; there's already Ukraine, which had to be closed in 24 hours, and it can't be closed like Saigon or Kabul, or it would be a political debacle for the man (and let's not underestimate the way the Epstein affair is being handled-regardless of the direct involvement of the POTUS). Add to this the military aspect: once all the Armada's Tomahawks have been launched, or the anti-missile missiles they will be forced to fire, there will be a need for supplies that can only be achieved by temporarily sending the Armada to distant bases.
So the operation must be quick: the ideal would be to remake the Venezuelan solution. This is not easy; the Iranians not only saw what was done and will have taken countermeasures, but they also remember what happened to them in June 2025, when the airstrike arrived during negotiations (a trademark of the award-winning US-Israel-Ukraine alliance).
In practice, has anything changed since June for both sides? On the Iranian front, there are reports of significant aid from China and Russia. In the 12/13-day war, Iran was caught by surprise not only because they weren't expecting an attack at that specific moment, but also because they didn't have the tools to detect the arrival of aircraft in time.
Meanwhile, Iran has installed an integrated Chinese system based on the new YLC8B radar, which, operating at low frequencies, is capable of detecting stealth aircraft up to 700 km away, allowing for the implementation of appropriate countermeasures. The military response can be managed in real time, thanks to integration with the Bei Dou network of Chinese satellites (which replace GPS and are also more precise, being of the new generation). Incidentally, Chinese organizations have released images of the American bases in Diego Garcia and Qatar (Al Udeid), where recently arrived THAAD missiles are clearly visible: a clear warning that they know what the Americans are doing and are also able to provide the coordinates for a possible immediate launch of Iranian missiles.
Today, it's unclear whether this integrated network will function perfectly, but there are reasons to believe that Iran will have a much better chance of responding or even blocking a first strike than it did in June 2025. This Chinese assistance is the result of a coordination agreement between the two countries, and China's interest is understandable, given that the US is systematically undermining its energy supply lines (see Venezuela, but also the ongoing piracy of oil tankers in international waters).
The agreement allows Iran access to otherwise encrypted military information processed by BeiDou's geostationary satellites, which, among other things, being so far away, are virtually immune to jamming, as recently happened with Starlink, which were rendered inoperative, rendering communications with and between the so-called Iranian insurgents ineffective. Added to this is the Chinese reconnaissance vessel Da Yang Yi Hao (Ocean One), located just outside the Persian Gulf. The vessel is configured as an oceanographic research vessel, but it also functions like AWACS aircraft, being able to track nearby aircraft and, especially, submarines, as well as intercept messages sent in that area. The same vessel appears to be escorted by a pair of destroyers. As far as is known, Ocean One is also part of the same integrated computer system, which,
incidentally, is similar to Link 17, which allowed Pakistan to outmaneuver India in last year's air battles.
Less is known about the aid provided by Russia. There are reports of the supply of S400 anti-missile systems, which are highly effective, but require expertise that can only be acquired over time, unless they are operated directly by previously trained technicians. Other sources report hypersonic missiles: the problem is integrating all the weapons systems for efficient real-time use.
If Iran has equipped itself to defend itself, what has the US done to believe it can succeed?
Apparently little, aside from developing an Armada that is certainly very powerful, but perhaps also vulnerable, as demonstrated by last year's great US victory over Yemen, during which a Yemeni missile forced an aircraft carrier into a rapid maneuver, causing an F14 to crash into the sea. In fact, to be relatively safe from missile attacks, an aircraft carrier must be stationed about 1,000 kilometers from the coast, ultimately making it less lethal than it could be. Finally, among the factors Trump must consider is the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which, by blocking oil traffic, would lead to a rise in prices and cause inflation in the US as well: the last thing Trump wants to see during an election period.
Rationally, one might ask: who's making them do it? One factor is the enormous arrogance of those in power, the belief that they have many more weapons, more powerful weapons than others; but someone should point out to them, for example, that the war in Ukraine is slowing down the replenishment of weapons stockpiles, almost emptied in last June's war.
In fact, even though the US doesn't spend a dollar supplying weapons to Kiev, it sells weapons to the Europeans (who then pass them on to the little green ogre), and the bottleneck seems to be weapons production (particularly Patriot missiles): too slow in relation to demand. Zelensky's recent complaint is precisely linked to the delayed arrival of missiles.
So, who's making them do it? Could it be (also) the Zionist lobby? Miriam Adelson donated $200 million to Trump for his election: she's the one who, along with her husband, in the previous round in 2016 (another round, more money), had requested-and obtained-the move of the Israeli capital from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Although American, she supports Israel First, not America First, and she's not Trump's only financial backer (the historic and powerful lobby group AIPAC is among them). In short, there are at least $200 million in good reasons to grant Netanyahu's wishes. Finally, let's ease the tension by recalling a funny episode of censorship from 1979, when the film Life of Brian was released, a Monty Python masterpiece that poked fun at (among other things) the Christian religion, but also the Jews, except that the key scene involving the chosen people was censored (otherwise the film would never have been released in the very democratic USA). The scene involved Otto the Nazirene, a fanatical Jew with a mustache who preached about greater Israel and the need to invade and occupy Samaria (the symbol: a Star of David with four hooked outer bars). It was satire and it was 1979; today it's reality.
We don't know many things; perhaps Trump can change his mind at the last minute, but what kind of image would he make internationally? That of a bully who threatens but doesn't follow through: a terrible example for other opponents, but also for allies who might wake up. Perhaps Trump will give the order to intervene and end up trapped in an endless war; or perhaps the Americans, thanks to the discombobulator that Trump claims allowed special forces to quickly kidnap Maduro, will also be able to free Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Antonio Politi
https://www.ucadi.org/2026/03/01/iran-una-cartina-al-tornasole/
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Source: A-infos-en@ainfos.ca
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