Published on January 2, 2025 by Ucadi in Newsletter, Number 192 -
December 2024, Year 2024 and tagged russia, syria, israel, turkey,United States. ---- In just 12 days the Assad regime, which had governed
Syria for fifty years (even though Bashar al-Assad had personally been
in power since 2000) collapsed, without there being any significant
clashes and battles on a territory that had seen bloody fighting between
the various parties in conflict over the years, especially since 2011,
the start date of the insurrection that can be placed in the so-called
Arab Spring. ---- The worsening of the crisis in Syria coincided with
the effects of the Israeli attack on the Lebanese Hezbollah, which,
together with the Iranian militias and the Russian forces present in the
country, supported the Syrian army in its activity of controlling the
territory. The weakening of the government forces coincided with an
intense preparation of the other forces in the field determined to bring
the attack to a standstill, consisting of the Kurdish militias, jihadist
groups that have long been camped in the territories to the north of the
country, militias supported and trained by the Turkish army that
strictly controls their activity, supported and backed by the American
military bases present on Syrian territory to guarantee the exploitation
of oil fields and control of the territory. The country, which has
always been a melting pot of peoples and ethnic groups characterized by
different religious affiliations, was politically managed by the Alawite
component of the population that had led the country's liberation
struggle against the hegemonic presence of the Turks, achieving control
of Damascus and proclaiming the birth of the Syrian State.
The Syrian territory was an integral part of the Ottoman Empire and
gained independence during the dissolution of this empire by the Western
powers, with a prominent role played by England and France. Syria, in
particular, became a territory over which France exercised the mandate
activity, which also controlled the adjacent Lebanese territory. It was
the Ba'th Party[1], a socialist-oriented political movement, which,
starting in 1961, took on the task of managing the country's
decolonization phase, which ended with the rise to power of Hafiz
al-Assad, who took advantage of two successive coups d'état and then the
outcome of the 1970 Arab-Israeli war to seize power and become President
of the Republic.
Hafiz al-Assad's Syria
A period of relative stability began, although it was managed by a
repressive, one-party government, characterized by the cult of
personality for the leader. The country moved closer to the Soviet Union
and introduced important infrastructural reforms and a planned economy,
ensuring a secular management of relations with the country's various
religious components, even if the Alawites - to whom the Assads belonged
- carved out a position of objective pre-eminence for themselves. In
1982, intolerance towards the Alawites took on political dimensions with
the growth of the Muslim Brotherhood among the Sunni majority of the
country's population. This revolt was repressed with a bloodbath.
In 1999, the designation of President Bashar al-Assad's son as successor
made it clear that the transformation of the political system into a
regime was taking place and there were clashes within the Alawite
component itself.
Starting in 2004, Assad had to deal with the emergence of the Kurdish
problem. This component of the country claimed its autonomy; in
response, the government maintained firm control of the population,
censorship of the free press, and a ban on the formation of opposition
political parties. In order to strengthen its social base, it decided,
in line with its international relations, to side with Iraq in 2003 and
to move politically closer to the Palestinian liberation movements
Hezbollah and Hamas, also choosing to intervene in the political life of
neighboring Lebanon.
The Arab Spring
On March 15, 2011, public and peaceful demonstrations also began in
Syria, as part of the so-called Arab Spring that mainly involves the
Sunni component of the country and is supported by the West and Saudi
Arabia. The Syrian government is supported by the Shiite military from
Iran that considers itself close to the Alawites and part of the
so-called Islamic crescent, which sees the Shiite component of Islamism
opposed to the Sunni one. An insurrectional and civil war situation is
created in the country, which Turkey takes advantage of, exploiting its
influence on the Syrian rebels, moving fighters to the regions of its
interest, also in order to carry out a repressive action on the Kurdish
populations settled on either side of the border between the two countries.
Russia and China intervene alongside the Syrian government in the
repression of the insurgents and the conflict gradually transforms from
a civil war into an international clash. The particularly bloody nature
assumed by the ongoing clash between the various factions in Syria is
accentuated by the composite nature of the country which sees the
presence of numerous ethnic-religious components and by the contiguity
with the Iraqi situation.
Already in 2006, following the outcome of the war in Iraq, the border
between Iraq and Syria was under the Islamic State of Iraq and the
Levant, successor to Al Qaeda. With the outbreak of the Syrian civil
war, this presence also extends to the Syrian territories and the
constitution of the Caliphate is declared which includes the territories
around the city of Mosul, and neighboring Syria, with the aim of
extending its authority over all lands inhabited by Muslims.
The need to oppose the Islamic State allows for collaboration between
the various forces in the field and the jihadists become the target of
attacks by the regular Syrian army, as well as by the Russian air force,
which is increasingly present in the country to defend the regime and to
ensure its presence in the bases held on the Syrian coast. American army
bases are established in the Euphrates area with the declared aim of
fighting the jihadists, but also to exploit its oil resources. Only
starting from 2017 did the Islamic State progressively lose the
territories it controlled, including Mosul and Raqqa, and was defeated
in Baghouz - the last stronghold whose fall put an end to its
territorial domination - in February-March 2019 by the Kurdish-led
Syrian armed groups, supported by the United States. The hard fight of
the Kurds against the Islamic State did not prevent Turkey from taking
advantage of the opportunity to eliminate them from the Afrin region
(organizing the "Olive Branch" operation). This resulted in the
uprooting of olive trees and fruit plantations in order to desertify the
entire area 9 to try to push back the Kurdish presence beyond the
Euphrates. To achieve this goal, the Turkish government did not hesitate
to politically manage and arm the remnants of the jihadist militias,
stationed in the Euphrates area, using them as an anti-cult function and
directing the pressure towards the Syrian government, in order to induce
it to accept a negotiation on the creation of a buffer zone in the north
of the country that would guarantee Turkey control over the waters of
the Euphrates River and the management of this resource.
The destabilizing effects of October 7 on the Syrian situation
As is known, the terrorist attack by Hamas on October 7, the subsequent
Israeli intervention on Gaza flaunted in the Israeli intervention in
Lebanon and the attack on Hamas, with the consequent decapitation of its
political leaders and disarticulation of its organization, also through
the sabotage of the walkie talkies supplied to the organization. The
objective weakening of the Lebanese Shiite militias that until then had
constituted a strong support for the Syrian government, counterbalanced
by the continuous aid coming from Iran, disarticulated the framework of
alliances placed to protect the Syrian government. Added to this is the
objective weakening of Russian support due to the growing commitments of
that country's army in the war in Ukraine. Turkey took advantage of the
favorable opportunity and, after having proposed a compromise to Assad
that was rejected, unleashed the action of the militias controlled by
it, which had long been appropriately prepared, also with the help of
the Ukrainian secret services, to definitively destabilize the Syrian
situation and accelerate its policy of rebuilding the empire in the
Turkish imperial space, also in view of the return to favor of the
Abraham Accords, in fact relaunched by the progress of the Palestinian
crisis, as well as with the intent to provide a managed and controlled
route for the trade route that will allow Indian goods to reach Europe,
competing with the parallel Silk Road wanted by China. To this
objective, in itself strategic, are added the advantages deriving from
the almost exclusive management of the control of the water resources of
the area, constituted by the waters of the Tigris and the Euphrates, the
true driving force of the agricultural development of the area, as well
as the prospect for Turkey to resolve the Kurdish question once and for all.
Winners and Losers
While the country is about to be managed by a former al Qaeda terrorist
who declares himself repentant about the life of Damascus, so much so as
to ensure that women will not be forced to veil themselves and to agree
to give his protection to the management of power by a bureaucrat
belonging to the Ba'th party who will manage the transition, the exact
contours of the operation are already clearly emerging.
It is quite clear that Assad left power after a negotiation, in the
knowledge that he did not have the strength to manage the situation,
negotiating the conditions of his exit from the scene. In addition to
his personal position, the negotiation also concerned the Russian
presence in the country, proof of which is that at least for the moment
the Russian bases in the country are not in question, probably
guaranteed by the negotiation between the foreign ministers of Qatar,
Turkey and Russia that took place in Doha at the same time as the events
in Syria. At the same time, Turkey sees its interests assured and
everything suggests that it will obtain the establishment of the
demilitarized zone in the north of the country, regulating the Kurdish
question - Americans permitting - who are moreover only and exclusively
interested in the management of oil resources and the strategic presence
in the area and have no intention of sacrificing themselves to defend
the Kurds. There is no doubt that the great loser of what has happened
is Iran, which has not only seen the political guerrilla formations
allied to it attacked and defeated, but has also been ousted from Syria
and has seen the direct territorial connection through which it can
supply its Lebanese allies severed. And that is not all, because Iran's
ability to counter Israeli power in the area has been weakened and its
ability to stand up to Turkish expansionism, while defending itself from
Israeli hostility, has also been compromised. Given the new situation on
the ground, Iran has no choice but to give priority to uranium
enrichment, providing itself with nuclear weapons as soon as possible to
act as a deterrent against continuous Israeli attacks and at the same
time allow it to balance the growing strength of Saudi Arabia and the
Sunni world, which certainly sees the Shiite component in clear
difficulty. But the real winners of the affair are once again the
Israelis who have taken advantage of the opportunity to take over the
entire Golan area, going further and reaching the outskirts of Damascus,
further expanding their territory in the direction of reaching the
biblical borders that should sooner or later take them to the banks of
the Euphrates (the appetite comes with eating). There is more: as
terrorists as they are, they have taken advantage of it to eliminate the
weapons depots, the armaments, the air force, the Syrian navy In total
contempt for international law and acting on the territory of an
independent and sovereign state against which they had not even declared
a state of war. Let those in the world who are still afflicted by the
sense of guilt for the Holocaust take this into account and do not
consider that in the case of the Israelis we are faced with a gang of
criminal Zionist nationalists, capable of the most brutal crimes,
violators of international law, true pirates of every relationship
between peoples in compliance with international law, responsible for a
brutal genocide against the Palestinian people.
To those who the West applauds the effects of the Syrian crisis, seeing
in what has occurred an objective weakening of Russia, we point out that
as a great imperial power it has negotiated the maintenance of its bases
in Syria as a logistical support for its action towards Africa, which
moreover occurs in concert, in many cases, with the Turks, sponsors of
the guarantees obtained.
As for the repercussions on the war in Ukraine, we note that when it
happened it leaves Russia even freer to dedicate all its resources to
the Ukrainian war, strengthening its determination to achieve its goals,
also in order to demonstrate, in the context of a rebirth of empires and
therefore in competition with what the cumbersome neighbor Erdogan is
doing, to have a determination at least equal to that of Turkey in
rebuilding the imperial dimensions of its power and in affirming its
role as a power, in a framework of balanced multilateral and multipolar
relations.
[1]The Ba'ath Party, of secular inspiration and initially linked to Arab
socialism and pan-Arabism, since its foundation in the 1940s highlighted
its inter-confessional characteristic, its three creators being a
Christian, an Alawite and a Sunni.
Gianni Cimbalo
https://www.ucadi.org/2025/01/02/la-siria-nella-guerra-globale/
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