Considerations about the death of Hugo Chavez by Bruno Lima Rocha (pt)

The collective imagination about the now former president of the Bolivarian Republic of 
Venezuela becomes the new challenge for the political analysis of Latin America. Post 
chavismo? ---- To reflect. Venezuela is in a quandary. In the foreign arena, the vice 
chairman, Nicolas Maduro, had to expel two U.S. diplomats today, just before the 
announcement of the death of Hugo Rafael Ch?vez Fr?as. Or the intelligence of the country, 
aided by the fact that G2 (Cuban intelligence services) in fact identified the polls armed 
forces (which is always), and then it came to diversion. But the probability of a joint to 
destabilize the country is very high. ---- Shortly after it was announced the death of 
Hugo Chavez. Last week, the journalist Elias hell Aredes Junior asked me if I thought 
exactly that Chavez had returned to his homeland to die? I believe so.

Already terminal, chose to die at home and it helps with the conditioning of succession. 
The problem lies elsewhere, but in many possible scenarios in the near future.

The court is open ...

Designing scenarios for a post-Chavez Venezuela

1) Cabello takes over as chairman of the Legislature and the PSUV Maduro competes; already 
Capriles, the unified opposition. It would be a single election, where the State 
Department and the continent beyond the capital and the Ibero-American oil companies will
be present.

2) Maduro warrant the exercise of the executive branch and does not transfer within the 
constitutional power to Parliament. Opposition threatens not participate in the process. 
In this case, the role of the armed forces is essential to maintain chavista power.

3) The PSUV cracks and the opposition as well. This scenario is very unlikely, but can 
occur in the field of opposition if the right does not have an election scheduled soon. In 
case the court is open, including increased aggressiveness of the Empire.

4) Even if Nicol?s Maduro skirt wins elections marked - most likely - opens up a second 
round in the exercise of power by the leader Chavez. The internal PSUV is terrible and 
there may be internal cracks, but this would likely after a victory at the polls.

PSUV in power

To complete the first projection, recall of populism in Argentina.

Peronism without Per?n What is different with Juan Domingo Peronism, which also was not 
much on the proposals for youth left which joined the movement in the late '60s. In the 
Venezuelan case, the reproduction of the political culture of the country inside the PSUV
(formed by warlords and politicians even converted, the sectors are called endogenous 
right) is striking. The problem would be the breaking of the covenant.

The PSUV is due to Chavez. In his absence, the ideological dimension is not as strong as 
the convenience of being right with the Executive. Today there exist many different 
peronismos and chavismos in a couple of years. Chances are that by the next election, 
nothing will happen. Especially because the tendency is that Maduro is the official 
candidate and win the polls.

But if the PSUV to lose, hardly the right takes power, even if the win at the polls. It 
would also be a breach of covenant, and the tears of constitutionality is not to disrupt 
the elections be convened within the legal deadlines. Chavismo always relied on the 
legalization and constitutionalization process, often leaving as the very long term 
agenda, or the never-never land, the deep social exchange or the problem of succession.

Now the problem has come and the balance can only lean to the Bolivarian process if there
is a high degree of unity by social forces - as community radio, which is of combative 
syndicalism, indigenous movement, palenqueros (equivalent to maroon) and the remnants of 
the urban community organized and mobilized in Caracas and neighboring states.

In the latter case, lies and control over the militia. If this control is with the leaders 
- mostly dubious - PSUV, anything can happen during even the likely government Maduro. Now 
if this control is with the most radical of several Bolivarian movement as Tupamaros, 
Andr?s Lives, Communities al Mando, Zamora Peasant Front, among others, there is some 
chance of deep exchange, provided it does not fit a scenario where the armed forces 
directly repress the popular movement, at least not at first.

At the time, emergencies relate to the fact of whether they are called elections and 
anticipate the movements of the Department of State, the media palangrista and squalid. 
But it is now, the medium term is right there, so Maduro take power through the ballot box 
(again).
Bruno Lima Rocha

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