The Portuguese elections ended with a result of substantial parity
between the Socialist Party (28.63) and the Democratic Alliance (28.66);
the first with 77 deputies and the second 79, but the final count is
missing the results relating to the four constituencies of residents
abroad which could lead to absolute parity, considering that in past
elections they were the prerogative of the socialists. The situation is
complicated by the fact that the balance of power for the formation of
the government is the far-right Chega party, with 48 deputies, voted by
18% of the electorate. Democratic Alliance (AD), the result of an
electoral agreement between the Social Democratic Party, the People's
Party and the Monarchist People's Party, led by Luis Montenegro, who was
quick to declare that he will not agree to form a coalition government
with Chega. This statement was followed by that of Pedro Nuno Santos,
socialist leader, who assured Montenegro of external support in case he
decided to form a minority government. Furthermore, 8 liberal initiative
deputies were elected with 5.8% of the votes; 5 seats went to the left
bloc with 4.46% of the votes, 4 seats to the CDU-PCP communist and green
alliance, with 3.30% of the votes and finally 4 deputies to the
environmentalist party Livre with 3.26% 1 seat for the animal rights
party PAN. There was a greater participation than in previous elections,
with a turnout of 66.23%. Compared to the 10.8 million entitled to vote.
The early elections were necessary following a scandal relating to the
exploitation of a lithium mine in which numerous socialist ministers
were involved. The Prime Minister Antonio Costa, also involved in the
affair, was found to be uninvolved in the facts; initially accused,
because he is the namesake of a minister, he kept his resignation for
consistency, although in 10 years of good administration he has restored
the country's budget and its economy without resorting to social
butchery by making the less well-off classes pay the cost .
The Chega party led by a lawyer and former sports journalist, exploited
popular discontent due to the progressive deterioration of services, the
health crisis, policies to contain public spending, the growing problem
of emigration, the transformation of Portugal into a -refuge for
Europe's pensioners, which has affected the real estate market and
contributed to the local population moving to the outskirts of less
served cities.
Holland effect
It is possible that the final vote count will see the Socialist Party
obtain the majority of seats: how then to explain the recognition of the
Democratic Alliance's victory? This happens because the main intent of
the Socialist Party is to prevent the formation of a government
resulting from the alliance between the main opposing party and the
neo-fascist Chega party: the declared availability for external support
for a Democratic Alliance government
it would make it possible to make the exclusion ad exclusion work
towards Chega's entry into the government, at the same time allowing the
socialists to heavily influence the government, forced to seek from time
to time the majorities needed to approve each measure.
Upon closer inspection we are faced with a stalemate situation, partly
similar to that which occurred in the Netherlands with the victory of
Wilders, who 3 months after the elections was unable to form a
government and is preparing to create a so-called extra-parliamentary
government (a sort of Italian-style technical government. What happens
demonstrates that the electoral victory of the right often translates
into a situation of immobility and stalemate, characterized by
unrealistic programs for the restructuring of social and economic
relations between the classes which, as proven by the facts, prove
impossible to achieve.
It is not unlikely that in Portugal as in the Netherlands the situation
will be clarified and definitively unblocked only after the European
elections which will effectively constitute a verification of the
orientations of the electorate with respect to the national elections
and will confirm or deny the advance of the right and the their success
among voters. On the other hand, national policies now have little
breathing space in all European countries, since budget management
depends almost totally on community policies, due to the management of
financial flows, the coordination of economic policies, the
international division of labor and the distribution of production
quotas across the territories.
A reversal of trend and an overcoming of this political phase is
inextricably linked to the policies relating to military spending, the
rearmament of Europe and the choices relating to the adoption of a war
economy on which, for the moment, European countries appear divided
between a part of them that accepts the US and NATO diktat of bringing
military spending to at least 2% of GDP and another part of the
countries that aims at rearmament through the creation of an economy of
scale which, by standardizing production and weapons systems, aims to
create economies to be allocated to new investments, starting from the
observation that already today the spending on armaments by EU countries
is higher in volume than that of Russia, but achieves lower results due
to lack of coordination of production and non-compatibility of weapon
systems.
What the parties of the left should understand is that their political
defeat is inextricably linked to the vision that the electorate has of
them and their role, which identifies them as "genetically" leaning
towards peace and therefore does not recognize them as warmongers.
G.L.
https://www.ucadi.org/2024/03/17/lo-stallo-portoghese/
_________________________________________
A - I N F O S N E W S S E R V I C E
By, For, and About Anarchists
Send news reports to A-infos-en mailing list
A-infos-en@ainfos.ca
between the Socialist Party (28.63) and the Democratic Alliance (28.66);
the first with 77 deputies and the second 79, but the final count is
missing the results relating to the four constituencies of residents
abroad which could lead to absolute parity, considering that in past
elections they were the prerogative of the socialists. The situation is
complicated by the fact that the balance of power for the formation of
the government is the far-right Chega party, with 48 deputies, voted by
18% of the electorate. Democratic Alliance (AD), the result of an
electoral agreement between the Social Democratic Party, the People's
Party and the Monarchist People's Party, led by Luis Montenegro, who was
quick to declare that he will not agree to form a coalition government
with Chega. This statement was followed by that of Pedro Nuno Santos,
socialist leader, who assured Montenegro of external support in case he
decided to form a minority government. Furthermore, 8 liberal initiative
deputies were elected with 5.8% of the votes; 5 seats went to the left
bloc with 4.46% of the votes, 4 seats to the CDU-PCP communist and green
alliance, with 3.30% of the votes and finally 4 deputies to the
environmentalist party Livre with 3.26% 1 seat for the animal rights
party PAN. There was a greater participation than in previous elections,
with a turnout of 66.23%. Compared to the 10.8 million entitled to vote.
The early elections were necessary following a scandal relating to the
exploitation of a lithium mine in which numerous socialist ministers
were involved. The Prime Minister Antonio Costa, also involved in the
affair, was found to be uninvolved in the facts; initially accused,
because he is the namesake of a minister, he kept his resignation for
consistency, although in 10 years of good administration he has restored
the country's budget and its economy without resorting to social
butchery by making the less well-off classes pay the cost .
The Chega party led by a lawyer and former sports journalist, exploited
popular discontent due to the progressive deterioration of services, the
health crisis, policies to contain public spending, the growing problem
of emigration, the transformation of Portugal into a -refuge for
Europe's pensioners, which has affected the real estate market and
contributed to the local population moving to the outskirts of less
served cities.
Holland effect
It is possible that the final vote count will see the Socialist Party
obtain the majority of seats: how then to explain the recognition of the
Democratic Alliance's victory? This happens because the main intent of
the Socialist Party is to prevent the formation of a government
resulting from the alliance between the main opposing party and the
neo-fascist Chega party: the declared availability for external support
for a Democratic Alliance government
it would make it possible to make the exclusion ad exclusion work
towards Chega's entry into the government, at the same time allowing the
socialists to heavily influence the government, forced to seek from time
to time the majorities needed to approve each measure.
Upon closer inspection we are faced with a stalemate situation, partly
similar to that which occurred in the Netherlands with the victory of
Wilders, who 3 months after the elections was unable to form a
government and is preparing to create a so-called extra-parliamentary
government (a sort of Italian-style technical government. What happens
demonstrates that the electoral victory of the right often translates
into a situation of immobility and stalemate, characterized by
unrealistic programs for the restructuring of social and economic
relations between the classes which, as proven by the facts, prove
impossible to achieve.
It is not unlikely that in Portugal as in the Netherlands the situation
will be clarified and definitively unblocked only after the European
elections which will effectively constitute a verification of the
orientations of the electorate with respect to the national elections
and will confirm or deny the advance of the right and the their success
among voters. On the other hand, national policies now have little
breathing space in all European countries, since budget management
depends almost totally on community policies, due to the management of
financial flows, the coordination of economic policies, the
international division of labor and the distribution of production
quotas across the territories.
A reversal of trend and an overcoming of this political phase is
inextricably linked to the policies relating to military spending, the
rearmament of Europe and the choices relating to the adoption of a war
economy on which, for the moment, European countries appear divided
between a part of them that accepts the US and NATO diktat of bringing
military spending to at least 2% of GDP and another part of the
countries that aims at rearmament through the creation of an economy of
scale which, by standardizing production and weapons systems, aims to
create economies to be allocated to new investments, starting from the
observation that already today the spending on armaments by EU countries
is higher in volume than that of Russia, but achieves lower results due
to lack of coordination of production and non-compatibility of weapon
systems.
What the parties of the left should understand is that their political
defeat is inextricably linked to the vision that the electorate has of
them and their role, which identifies them as "genetically" leaning
towards peace and therefore does not recognize them as warmongers.
G.L.
https://www.ucadi.org/2024/03/17/lo-stallo-portoghese/
_________________________________________
A - I N F O S N E W S S E R V I C E
By, For, and About Anarchists
Send news reports to A-infos-en mailing list
A-infos-en@ainfos.ca
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