Whether you're tuned into the COP discussions in Baku or turned off by the fossil fuel interests that are colouring the conversations, we all are implicated by the energy debate. Belgium has been wrestling with the topic for the whole of the 21st century.
As consumers our influence over Belgium's energy future is limited. Yes, there are choices we all can take that affect our individual carbon footprint, but decisions that steer energy systems are taken long before they come to bear on households. The fate of Belgium's nuclear park was settled in 2003 when a law passed to phase out the reactors in Doel and Tihange. Two decades later we're realising this was an error on the grandest scale.
What's worse, these mistakes cost individuals as well as the country. As Russia's invasion of Ukraine constrained EU gas supplies, energy bills rocketed. Though the impact was softened by generous government support systems, we all faced the consequences of relying heavily on energy imports.
And whilst switching on the heating is no longer a lavish luxury that could also be financially ruinous, how can we be sure that staying warm will be affordable in the months to come? Unfortunately we can't. Our energy outlook this winter depends largely on the weather, not just the temperature but also how much wind farms will meet our electricity needs.
"If we have a very cold winter with very little wind we may deplete our gas reserve before the end of winter," warned Belgium’s foremost energy engineer Damien Ernst. This would be bad news for us all, perhaps not as existential as the price peaks of two years ago but uncomfortable all the same.
Ernst explains the predicament Belgium now faces: "Prices are high enough to impoverish European households and make life impossible for industries that rely a lot on electricity and gas for production. But they are not high enough for governments to take strong action." In the face of such uncertainty, "Prepare for the worst" seems the sensible course of action.
But the fact we are so susceptible to changes in the wind says a lot about the state of our energy security. The national grid operator predicts that electricity demand in Belgium will increase by 95-130% by 2050. We will need to act quickly to avoid every winter being a roll of the dice about our energy budget. As Ernst highlights, this is a precarious position for households to find themselves in; for businesses it's hopeless.
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