WORLD WORLDWIDE EUROPE ITALY - news journal UPDATE - (en) Italy, UCADI #190 - US Elections (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

 Less than a week before the vote, all polls report that the two

candidates have collected the same percentage of votes and that
therefore the final outcome of the clash is extremely uncertain. The
polls take place while people have already voted by mail more than in
any other election and therefore there is a well-founded suspicion that
they record what has already happened. This tie in the collection of
consensus appears uniform in all the States and this constitutes an
element of perplexity and suspicion, as if the media were doing
everything to delay any news on the final outcome of the vote, in the
face of uncertainty about what will happen at the hands of the two
contenders. What is certain is that in any case Trump will find it
difficult to accept his possible defeat and will once again cry out
about a rigged vote and a stolen victory. Of course, his real powers
will depend on who controls the House and the Senate and whether this
can constitute a counterweight. In any case, it is certain that the next
day we will not know who won, because the counting of votes and above
all the verification of its regularity will require many days,
cumbersome and complex procedures, leaving the country in uncertainty.
There is however a difference with the past elections, because this time
Joe Biden still sits in the White House and it will be up to him to
ensure and guarantee compliance with the transition to the new
administration, so it will be almost impossible for gangs of Trump
supporters, thanks to the complicity of the police, to walk the streets
of the capital, preparing for a new assault on Capitol Hall. The
substantial balance on the eve between the two candidates is explained
by the fact that the country is effectively split in two from an
economic, sociological and class composition point of view, and this has
undeniable and inevitable effects on the vote. The distribution of
consensus has changed not only because Trump has destroyed the old
Republican Party, making it a personal populist party, but above all
because the living and working conditions of the citizens of the country
have profoundly changed. The restructuring of the country's economy, the
decentralization of production, the dismantling of traditional industry,
the deindustrialization of many territories, has destroyed the reference
bases of the working class, traditionally linked to the Democratic
Party, has created a vast category of new poor, to the point that many
of them today vote for the Republican Party to express a protest vote,
an anti-institutional void, which paradoxically is given to the most
institutional candidate of the two, namely Donald Trump, who is the
living and working expression of a rampant capitalism without moral
qualms, without rules, unscrupulous, which has massacred the working
class and its rights. Thus it happens that at least a large part of the
workers' vote is added to that of the evangelical Churches, of the deep
country, of the countryside and the suburbs. The resentment and fear of
Latino immigrants contributes to strengthening the ranks of Trumpian
Republicans. recently become US citizens, who see their position
threatened by a huge mass of illegal migrants, looked upon with sympathy
and solidarity by the most cultured component of the country that makes
reception policies one of its distinctive characteristics and whose
point of reference is the Democratic Party. Added to this, as revealed
by some polls, is the perplexity of many black male voters who express
distrust towards a female candidate, even if she gathers the consensus
of many women, due to her position regarding abortion and the freedom of
the woman's body. But the growth of inflation that largely exceeds 10%
contributes significantly to the vote, which simplistically makes the
voter think that his situation was better during the Trump
administration and this even if the US economy has never been so
flourishing. The United States has managed to detach the European
economy from Russia's energy supplies, thanks to the war in Ukraine and
to put German and European competition in crisis. For his part, Trump
can take this result for granted and become the standard-bearer of a
similar opposition to China by asking the country to focus its attention
on the Asian chessboard and continue to oppose Europe with a policy of
high tariffs.

Foreign policy and consensus for candidates

Contrary to popular belief, foreign policy does not have much importance
for the average American voter, even if it ends up weighing on the
orientation of specific elite groups and affects the choices of some
minorities such as the Jewish and Muslim ones, which end up having great
relevance, because in some key states they constitute or could
constitute that number of voters that makes the difference in the
assignment of delegates in the state. So Donald Trump can say that he
will do everything to end the war in Ukraine or at least that he will
pass the entire cost on to Europe, assuming that this desire continues
to support him, while he will devote more attention to the Indo-Pacific
and will leave free rein to Netanyahu regarding the continuation of the
conflict in Palestine, up to its extreme consequences. Harris cannot
afford this clarity and, while maintaining an ambiguous line of
continuity with respect to Ukraine, albeit with some perplexity, she is
willing to put an end to the war effort and must take a more ambiguous
position with respect to the Middle East, maintaining that same
uncertainty in action and that extreme weakness that has characterized,
in many ways, the Biden administration, not only in the last phase of
his mandate. Harris also seems to converge in the concerns about China
and the Indo-Pacific, which are an area of attention for all US
politics. The situation is such that only after the elections and with a
consolidated result, will we be able to understand to what extent the
choice of the new President will influence the foreign policy of the
United States.

The Editorial Staff

https://www.ucadi.org/2024/10/30/elezioni-usa/
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