Published on January 2, 2025 by Ucadi in Newsletter, Number 192 -
December 2024, Year 2024 and tagged war, United States, Middle East,Ukraine, Syria. ---- With the sudden collapse of the Syrian regime, the
world war in pieces further expands its range of action: the main war,
that is, the one that sees Ukraine conducting a proxy war in the name
and on behalf of the United States, England and the European Union
against Russia, is enriched with further battlegrounds. The war being
fought on Ukrainian territory is in reality only a part of a global
conflict that involves the Middle East, but also Africa, sectors in
which the main actors operate, surrounded from time to time by bearers
of more limited local interests, which must however be included in the
ongoing global conflict.
Where and how it all began
In 2006, an economic crisis exploded in the United States that spread
between 2007 and 2013, following the "subprime crisis" that acted as a
driving force for the crisis that affected the world market. The main
factors that influenced what happened were the increase in the prices of
raw materials, oil first and foremost but also energy, accompanied by a
global food crisis and the world market for trade and commerce that
risked leading to a global recession. in a credit crisis, following the
banking crisis, with a consequent collapse of confidence in the stock
markets.
A small group of politicians, especially British, strongly linked to the
London Stock Exchange and the American capital market, which revolves
around Wall Street, which, operating on the fringes of NATO circles,
developed a strategy that, over time, would be articulated along
increasingly complex lines, provided the outlines of a global response.
This interest group. born within Anglo-Saxon capitalism, identifies
Europe as the weak link in the structure that the market is assuming
with the entry of China into the WTO and conceives its weakening as the
first step of this strategy, implementing the Brexit project, with the
dual purpose of freeing Anglo-Saxon capitalism that is headed by the
London Stock Exchange from continental European interests and on the
other hand of returning to the Anglo-Saxon countries, and in particular
to the area constituted by the United States, Great Britain, Canada and
Australia, hegemony in the world economy and trade. Considering that the
strong point of the production model adopted by the continental area of
European capitalism is constituted by the axis that links the economy of
these countries to the Russian one, this group of politicians and
fixers, decides that severing this link constitutes a priority
objective. They have already identified Ukrainian nationalism as the
weak link in the political balances existing in the area of the buffer
states that separate Russia from the European Union and that constitute
the guarantee of strategic security for Russia, allowing that
collaboration and that relationship of trust that they aim to sever.
Their objective is to work towards the dissolution of the unity of the
Russian state by giving life to numerous ethnic-based states in order to
destroy the Russian imperial presence, leaving room for the rise of
nationalisms. In this new hypothetical structure of the political
configuration of the eastern territories, Ukraine would perform the
functions of a three d'union, of an intermediary between Europe and the
Asian territories of the cohabitant thanks to the Slavic composition of
its population.
The first step of this destabilization strategy is successfully
implemented, leading to its most extreme consequences with Brexit, and
yet the project is delayed due to the explosion of the pandemic that for
two years immobilizes the further developments of the strategic project,
which is vigorously resumed at the end of the pandemic period.
With the withdrawal from political life of Chancellor Merkel in December
2021, the highly prestigious politician who had guaranteed the
persistence of the Minsk II agreements of 2015, freezing the Ukrainian
crisis and at the same time guaranteed the persistence of gas and oil
supply contracts at a political price, in exchange for investments in
technology and capital in the industrialization and modernization of the
Russian industrial apparatus and in the choice of Russian territory as a
privileged investment environment for Franco-German capital, has
disappeared. The British are finally free to bring their military
support to Ukraine to light, which has seen Ukraine's military potential
increasingly strengthen and lead to the coup in Maidan Square,
orchestrated in concert with its US ally. The interference of the
Ecumenical Patriarchate, and therefore of the State Department, has
increased in the country, with the creation of an autocephalous (i.e.
national) Ukrainian Orthodox Church, to which the Ecumenical Patriarch
has granted autocephaly, a Church that enjoys the support of the
Ukrainian government in waging a merciless battle to control the
canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church, linked to the Patriarchate of
Moscow, in order to take possession of its immense heritage and take
over from it in influencing the country politically and sociologically.
Furthermore, the attack on the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church
linked to the Moscow Patriarchate constitutes a direct attack on the
Russkiy Mir, supported by the Moscow Patriarchate, or Patriarch Kyrill,
the closest ally of Putin's imperial policy. There are all the
conditions for Russia to decide to undertake a wicked "police" operation
on the model of those once implemented in Czechoslovakia, called
"special operation", which by invading Ukraine, aims to establish a
friendly government there, and all this without being aware of how much
the situation on the ground and in the country has changed compared to
the Soviet period and how much nationalism has grown in the country,
strongly rooted especially in the western Ukrainian territories, which
are then those in which the invasion develops. Despite its intelligence
activities, the Russian government seems to ignore that Ukraine has
suffered, together with the impoverishment of its economy, a phenomenon
of urbanization that has moved a large part of the population of the
western oblasts towards Kiev, thus changing the sociological composition
of the capital of the country where Westernizing models of life and
aspirations prevail.
The events are known, as is the clear change in Russian strategy after
the failure of the operation on Kiev: from that moment on, having
withdrawn the expeditionary force, which was also repelled, Russia
committed its troops to support the separatist oblasts of eastern
Ukraine. From that moment on, a war of position began that is still
ongoing today and which, after alternating phases characterized by
Ukrainian offensives and Russian counterattacks, now sees the Russian
army spreading across the entire eastern front.
The oblasts of Donetsk, Kharkiv, and partly those of Lugansk and
Zaporingia are occupied at a rate of 500 km2 per month, while the
territory of the Dnipro oblast is now threatened. The Russians do not
hide their intention to reach the Dnipro River, creating a ridge that
from the north, near Sumy, reaches the banks of the Dnipro and
constitutes the natural border of a Ukraine annexed to Russia. In this
sense, the invasion of Kursk could, in the long run and once repelled,
turn out to be a boomerang, because once the Ukrainian presence in the
Russian salient is eliminated, the Russian army could develop an
initiative on a new front, constituted precisely by the territory of
this oblast.
The dimensions of the disaster
The proxy war that Ukraine has foolishly agreed to conduct, in the name
and on behalf of the West, has destroyed the country. Its population has
gone from 42 million, before the war, to about half. No less than 8
million Ukrainians have migrated to the West and their migration with
the passage of time threatens to turn into a stable phenomenon, since
they have been welcomed and integrated into the host societies. The
number of Ukrainians who have taken refuge in Russia and are still
living there is estimated at 6 - 9 million. Furthermore, the population
in the country must be excluded from the calculation of the population
of Crimea, those of the oblasts conquered by Russia and the number of
deaths on the battlefield, the civilian victims of the conflict. It
should be noted that neither of the two warring parties has made
available data relating to civilian and especially military victims.
From Western sources we know that Ukraine is suffering from a
significant shortage of fighters to send to the battlefield, while the
news relating to the stability of the internal front is becoming
increasingly worrying. The data collected by the Ukrainian General
Prosecutor's Office confirms the seriousness of the situation due to the
growing number of desertions: since 2022, approximately 60,000 criminal
proceedings have been opened for unauthorized abandonment of combat
units and approximately 30,000 for desertion. The latter figure
increased dramatically in 2024, with more than 51,000 soldiers leaving
their units without permission in the first nine months of the year
alone, more than double the number in 2023, the New York Times reported.
Numbers that indicate a crisis capable of threatening the cohesion and
effectiveness of the Ukrainian army.
"The problem now is not the weapons, but the people. No one wants to
join the army. They take you by force from the streets and send you to
the front without much preparation". The new law on mobilization, which
came into force on May 18, obliges all conscripts to provide their data
to the enlistment offices and introduces severe restrictions for draft
dodgers, including a ban on driving. However, these measures do not seem
sufficient to stop the collapse of discipline in the ranks of the AFU
(Ukraine's armed forces). This while Secretary of State Blingen is
insistently asking for the draft to be extended to eighteen-year-olds,
for now receiving the government's refusal.
These facts tell us that the country is destroyed not only in its
infrastructure, but in its social structure, and that it is destined for
a future of demographic desertification, whatever the final outcome of
the war and however the country's territorial dimensions are reduced.
Ukrainian nationalism has condemned the country to extinction. With the
loss of the eastern territories, the country is depriving itself of most
of the mineral resources of silicon, coal and rare earths, of the
promising territories for oil exploration, of the supporting industrial
structures and has already lost the most important steel mills, the
coal-cocke mines, the precision mechanical industry. Of significant
importance is the destruction and in any case the loss of control of the
power generation plants, both electro-hydraulic and nuclear.
Symmetric warfare
Ukrainian nationalism, while gradually acquiring awareness of the
impossibility of winning the war, has thought of moving the battlefield
to a global level, deciding to strike Russia in its strategic interests.
Hence the action of a commando, presumably mixed with the British secret
services, for the sabotage of the Nord Stream Two gas pipeline, the
interventions of the Ukrainian secret service in military training
activities on the use of drones to African Islamists of Boko Haram and
Tuareg to be used in order to counter the presence of Wagner and other
companies of Russian mercenaries in African countries of Central Africa,
where the Russian presence, but also Chinese is replacing the French
one; the probable commitment of the same secret services in the training
of Syrian jihadists, in order to counter the Russian presence in Syria.
This action on the other hand also explains why France strongly supports
the commitment in favor of Ukraine, not missing an opportunity to
remember that the country could decide to send men to the field even
officially, given that an unspecified number of "volunteers" operate as
mercenaries in Ukraine generously paid with community funding also for
the purpose of gaining experience in the field with respect to
innovative war and battle techniques. Faced with repeated defeats on the
Donbass front and at home, the Ukrainians have resorted to diversions
such as those reported, the most blatant of which is the incursion into
Kursk in order to gain control of part of the Russian territory to then
bring to the negotiating table for an exchange of territories. If the
results of what happened in Syria - a problem we deal with in another
article, suggest that this strategy presents some strategic advantage -
it is certain that the intervention in the territory of Kursk has cost
the weakening of the eastern front and a useless expenditure of forces
that still continues. It must also be said that the coincidence of the
war in Ukraine with the one in the Middle East and with the Israeli
intervention in Gaza have absorbed the already scarce resources of
weapons and ammunition available to the West to be used in the war to
counter Russia, in the face of the growth of the Russian production
capacity of weapons and ammunition which, although not adopting a war
economy, makes its war industry work on 5 shifts, in order to ensure the
continuous operation of the plants.
The war in Ukraine between US disengagement and the involvement of the
European Union
Although the Trump administration has not yet entered into office, the
effects of the policies of the new US president are already beginning to
be felt, even if not in a completely clear way. What is certain is that
the burden of the war effort will soon fall entirely on the European
Union, to the point that even if the United States continues to supply
weapons, even if produced and sold by the United States, these will have
to be paid for with funding from the European Union. The United States
has now achieved its goals and therefore has lost its reasons for
further commitment. Sooner or later a peace negotiation will be
necessary and given Russia's position that does not recognize the
legitimacy of the Ukrainian government represented by President
Zelensky, whose mandate has now expired, the impossibility of holding
elections given the state of war, the impossibility of its membership in
NATO, someone could come up with the crazy idea of legitimizing Ukraine
by allowing its immediate entry into the European Union. This would mark
the end of the European Union as we have known it and would represent a
clear violation of its founding treaties. Ukraine's expansion of the war
against Russia on a global level, the demonstration it has given of
knowing how to use terrorism both by training jihadist militias
operating in various guerrilla theaters around the world and by
practicing terrorism with targeted assassinations in other countries and
in Russia itself, shows that the West must manage an uncomfortable ally
who constitutes a wild variable on the chessboards of world politics
that does not skimp on violating every rule and limit in order to
achieve the goals of Ukrainian nationalism.
Getting rid of Ukraine
Therefore, for the European Union it would be suicidal and masochistic
to continue to support a corrupt and illiberal regime like the one in
force in Kiev, which is absolutely specular to Putin's, in terms of
interconnection with the values and characteristics of an open liberal
society. The massacre of the Ukrainian people cannot continue to find
justification in British interests, which are the most stubbornly
pursued, fueling the conflict against Russia in a function that is also
contrary to continental European interests.
If the conflict does not end, an economically destructive war will
continue to devastate the continent, its economy and its people, calling
into question any possibility of continuing to support welfare such as
the health system and personal services, causing the crisis of Western
societies, of its institutions, of its values, of its well-being,
producing a slide to the right of the political axis, subversive of the
freedoms of the liberal State. Peace imposes itself as necessary and
consciously entails the clear defeat of Ukrainian nationalism. In the
face of this situation, it is good for the left-wing parties to
self-criticize and abandon their unconditional support for the Ukrainian
nationalist government, seeking a dignified peace that takes into
account, as is now inevitable, the situation that has arisen on the
battlefield, agreeing to provide guarantees to Russia regarding its
security that cannot be guaranteed by jiw shipping troops deployed to
secure the current war front, but must be achieved by restoring
collaborative relations with Russia, trying to recreate the conditions
for a resumption of collaboration in the matter of energy exchange for
investments, as planned at the Baku conference and hypothesized in the
circles of the German SPD. The idea of guarding a border of more than
1000 km with thousands of men in arms is decidedly crazy due to the
costs that this would entail and the impossibility of having a
sufficient number of soldiers belonging to third countries to be used to
guard the eastern front. The use of NATO military also appears
unacceptable to the other side since it constitutes the positioning on
the border line of a hostile army.
This is the only way that would allow the parties of the European
progressive left to free themselves from the problem of war and to
reclaim welfare policies and positive investment and development
policies, aimed at improving the living and working conditions of the
classes and classes that they claim to represent, thus reversing the
cycle of continuous successes of the sovereign right, regaining the
representation of the popular classes and classes of which these parties
have historically been the interpreters.
The Editorial Staff
https://www.ucadi.org/2025/01/02/la-terza-guerra-mondiale-a-pezzetti/
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