Good morning.
Washington is anxious to see the US-EU trade deal approved at a European Parliament vote this Thursday (26 March) — but it is also threatening to impose higher tariffs and the end of favourable liquified natural gas (LNG) terms if it fails.
The deal, struck last July at Trump’s Turnberry golf club in Scotland, was supposed to be simple: a 15-percent tariff ceiling for the EU’s exports in exchange for dropping industrial and agricultural duties on US products to zero. The main aim was to avert the 30-percent tariff threat initially floated by US president Donald Trump.
Under EU procedures, the deal still required approval from the European Parliament. But in response to the Greenland crisis and the recent ruling of the US Supreme Court limiting tariff powers, MEPs have delayed the vote on several occasions and introduced amendments — a "multi-tiered safety net" that Washington views as a breach of the original political agreement.
The sticking points? A so-called ‘sunrise clause’ — meaning the US doesn’t get its new tariff rates until it proves it’s actually honouring its side of the bargain — and a ‘sunset clause’ that kills the deal in 2028 unless both sides agree to prolong it.
The vote is still expected to pass as most political groups are likely to vote in favour, with the European People’s Party — the largest group in the parliament — pushing for adoption.
But US ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder has been blunt, saying the failure to pass the deal would amount to "economic malpractice” and warned that the US could respond by adding new tariffs, pointing to what happened with South Korea.
In January, Trump said he was raising tariffs on Seoul from 10 percent to 25 percent on the grounds that South Korea was "not living up” to a previous commitment.
But energy is the real leverage. Puzder told the FT that these amendments risk losing the EU’s "favourable " access to American LNG. This comes at a time when the war in the Middle East is causing severe disruption to Qatari LNG production, and European gas prices have already nearly doubled.
Washington knows exactly where we’re vulnerable, as did Russia in 2022, and it’s not afraid to use that leverage. The question is whether Europe has learned anything from the last energy war, or if we are simply swapping one master for another.
Elena Sánchez Nicolás, editor-in-chief
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