Good morning.
There is no coal comeback
Before the war, roughly one-fifth of global liquid gas supply, about 112bn m³, passed through the strait. If used for power, that equals around 590 Terrawatt-hours, roughly France’s annual electricity generation.
This however is more than made up for by renewable additions.
In 2025 alone, data from energy think-tank Ember shows the world added enough new wind and solar capacity to generate about 1100TWh a year, nearly twice as much, which helped reduce the need for more coal since the start of the crisis.
One reason there hasn’t been a coal resurgence is that coal was already cheaper than gas, even before the latest price shock, meaning coal plants are already running close to full capacity.
The only way for coal to “come back is to build new plants, or revive old ones,” Ember’s Dave Jones told EUobserver. And by those metrics, there’s just not that much room to play with.
Germany has seven gigawatt of coal power capacity in reserve. Italy's total coal generation was under five gigawatts in 2025 — less than one percent of national electricity output, according to the country's grid operator Terna.
Even if these plants, which currently operate at an €80m a year loss, are extended, it will not materially change either country's energy outlook. The speed with which renewables can be connected to the grid is the determining factor.
Data from another recent Ember study shows that almost 700GW of renewable projects are waiting for grid connection across Europe.
In Italy alone, 231 GW of projects have a connection agreement but remain unbuilt — nearly twice the country’s entire power capacity.
Building wires sometimes takes decades. But the International Energy Agency estimated that software and contract reforms alone could unlock up to 185 GW of capacity across Europe.
The most important bottleneck, it turns out, isn’t fuel, but the grid.
Wester van Gaal - economy journalist
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