Venezuela, The legacy of Ch?vez and the Bolivarian crossroads by Bruno Lima Rocha (pt)

Phenomena such as the popular marea roja when the people came out to take to the streets 
of Caracas are the barometer of acceptance and coverage of the social actions of the 
Chavez government. Any decline in these policies will not be accepted by the majority. --
It is impossible to think of a Venezuela after Hugo Chavez's death without realizing that
his legacy symbolic balizar? all. Before being put in place public policies of protection, 
known as social missions (like Boves, Sucre, Bolivar and Miranda), the oil royalties 
concentrated 80% of GDP in less than 20% of the population. After thirteen years of 
government and the country's poorest live better and become perennial electoral 
reservation. Changed the state and society. ---- Changed the state and society through the 
Chavista method, which brings the contradiction.

Bet on the constitutionality possible, although there originally entered politics by 
force. The election of 1998 transformed the former president in February 1992 coup which 
was a national hero. Since then Chavez faced two coups (and lockout April 2002 tanker at 
the turn of the year) and some elections (four presidential) and some referendums.

In late warlord urn won almost everything, and the last to win without actually taking 
possession. He delivered more than 11pontos the governor of Miranda, Enrique Capriles. 
Interned in Cuba for cancer treatment almost terminally ill, his deputy and political heir 
indicated, Nicol?s Maduro, came to take a provisional. Now, more than ever, the survival 
of the successor implies cohesion difficult Chavista party (PSUV) and the loyalty of 
senior military mandos. The risk is real turning point, but not soon.

The most likely Maduro meets the constitutional deadlines, call elections for president 
and win overwhelmingly. The opposition, or the opposition, are a rare blend of political 
corpses of oligarchic period (known as the Pact of Punto Fijo) and some rising stars such
as Enrique Capriles still young, this also involved in previous plots.

The major problem for the continuity of the Bolivarian process is the internal Chavista. 
Anyone with contacts at the base of social movements, with alternative, community, 
indigenous movements, and afros, the tough neighborhoods of Caracas as the 23 de Enero and 
Petare zone, beyond the little class unionism there, you know the size of the ideological
chasm . Political leadership is somewhat accustomed to democracy and internal relations 
depended primarily with Miraflores Palace, or next to Chavez himself. Without the 
charismatic leader, the medium term trend is fragmentation. Until Maduro be reelected 
worth the motto of Unity and Discipline. In half of its government, we will see what is 
social organization to carry forward the legacy of Chavez.

Bruno Lima Rocha

Related Link: http://estrategiaeanalise.com.br