#WORLD #WORLDWIDE #GERMANY #ANARCHISM #News #Journal #Update - (en) #Germany, Black Ruhr University: Winter is already here! What we can expect in the supply crisis and what we can do., Posted on September 13, 2022 by blackrub (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

 introduction ---- It's hard to get ready for the cold weather with the heatwaves

of the last few months, but we need to start dealing with the coming winter now.
That's a basic rule of disaster preparedness - start as early as possible! Winter
is already here! ---- In this text we want to talk about the things that surely
await us and those that might await us. ---- Today (as of September 13, 2022)
almost no "contractually guaranteed" gas flows out of the area controlled by the
Russian state. It is unclear how Russian gas supplies will continue to develop:
the exact demand for gas and the possibilities of saving gas without serious
consequences are also unclear. That's why we wrote down 3 scenarios without
wanting to predict exactly what will happen. The scenarios are roughly based on
how much gas is "missing". Then we try to explain in simple terms what inflation,
money and property are. We also have a few suggestions on what we can do together
to prepare for this winter and the one after.

3. Scenarios

1. "Only" price increases

If too much gas is not "missing" or if enough gas can be saved without serious
consequences, there will still be massive price increases. For gas, electricity
but also groceries. The background is that many of the prices were only partially
passed on to the buyers by the companies and that electrical energy and gas are
needed to produce food. In addition, due to the uncertain geopolitical situation,
speculation on the "commodity" markets will gain momentum.
In the gas sector, the state plans to organize this price increase through the
gas surcharge. The gas surcharge passes on the increased costs and profits of the
gas companies to the "consumers". Previously, this would only have been partially
possible, because otherwise the gas companies would often be tied to long-term
contracts with fixed prices. The state had already created the option to abolish
this price fixing. With the gas levy he is now trying to keep some control over
the price increases. This is a desperate attempt at damage control, so the
differences caused by the different amounts of increases by the individual
companies are somewhat evened out. In addition, the gas levy suggests that
everyone has the same burden and, unlike corporate price hikes, is about a
national project. Here an attempt is made to use identification with the nation
and the state to persuade people to make sacrifices for the state-capitalist
elites or to stabilize the prevailing order.
This "intervention" of the state in the market shows once again that capitalist
markets need states to function.
It is important to say that parts of the companies would go bankrupt without the
gas levy because they could not buy on the world market and the supply would then
collapse. At the same time, the gas surcharge also supports and increases the
profits of companies that are doing very well financially.
Part of the additional costs for the lower classes may be cushioned by the state,
but this will not happen entirely. It remains important to support the poor and
impoverished. And we should remember what the "social balance" by the state is
based on - namely that the so-called "middle class", which also includes the
poor, pays taxes so that the even poorer receive alms. This secures the power of
the state-capitalist elites without having to give up a large part of "their"
resources.
Also, the European states only due to colonial exploitation of the rest of the
world. sufficient resources for "social compromises".

2. Lack of gas
The prices are passed on in full to the "consumers".

The gas surcharge is already a big step in the direction of passing the increased
gas price on to the general public. As already mentioned, the legal basis was
created in the summer of 2022. Then the expenses would probably triple to
sevenfold. Both the gas surcharge and the latter case mean that millions of
people will no longer be able to pay their heating bills, which means they will
either freeze beforehand or have the heating turned off later. In the worst case,
people who live in rented apartments can be fired and lose their homes. Also,
lots of people will freeze and some will freeze to death. This will not "only"
happen in private homes, how should emergency shelters, women's shelters or
assisted living projects, which are already often scarcely funded, afford the
rising costs? The increase in electricity prices will also have dramatic
consequences for many people, including power cuts.

People are sacrificed for industry

Another far-reaching step that the Economics Minister has indicated as a
possibility is that households could be forced to make savings in favor of
companies. However, the state cannot simply turn off the gas for everyone.
Millions of people live in one or two-family houses. The people there have a
higher consumption and are usually richer than people who have to rent, but from
an organizational point of view it is impossible to send someone to turn off the
gas in every house. And why should the residents let them into the house? Even
the police do not have the strength to force their way into millions of homes
What the state can try to do beyond the gas levy is to turn off or turn off the
gas for people in apartment buildings, where the landlords may also help them.
That is, should there be direct compulsive cuts and cuts in the supply of gas, it
will hit the poorest and the least consuming.
Now the question may arise, why should the state resort to such means and put the
industrial economy above the households?
It's relatively simple: a large part of the industry is dependent on gas as a
resource. Estimates say that industry could save a maximum of 6% of its
consumption and thus 1-2% of total consumption without shutting down production.
However, Germany received 30-40% of the total consumption of gas from Russia. If
a larger part of industrial production in Germany fails, this endangers Germany's
economic supremacy and thus the financing of the state. The global capitalist
market means that production simply shifts. If its funding collapses, the state
would either have to start distributing wealth from the top down (which
contradicts its purpose of exploiting and creating inequality. A longer
explanation of this can be found later in the text if it,Anarchism Introductory
Lecture .) or start saving on "Social Concessions".

3. The Worst Case: Intermittent gas and power outages
It is clear that if there is a lack of gas, which in the worst case can lead to
no longer being available, then the city will (temporarily) turn off the gas in
certain parts of the city: people can no longer heat and some will freeze to
death, depending on the weather.
Because instead of reducing energy consumption, the state-capitalist society was
forced to continue to grow, gas-fired power plants still have a high share of
electricity production. Not all of these power plants can simply be switched off.
The main reason for this is that, together with the French nuclear power plants,
they form the reserve for dark lulls in winter, i.e. when hardly any solar and
wind energy is "produced" due to the weather. Many nuclear power plants in France
are currently shut down due to damage.In addition, many gas-fired power plants
are needed for the district heating network. This means that in the event of a
gas shortage, parts of the city could have their electricity cut off by the hour.
In English this is called rolling blackouts. Another reason for this is being
created because many people are buying fan heaters. Heating with electricity
isn't necessarily going to be cheaper than heating with gas, but when gas runs
out, people will start using it massively. The power grid will probably not stand
it. The only possible reaction of the state, as already mentioned, is to
temporarily turn off the electricity in certain parts of the city. So we should
be prepared, unless we are part of the elite, to have to do without electricity
and gas at times.

Digression: what longer power outages mean

It is unclear how long such power outages will last. In the event of longer power
outages, the mobile phone network and the Internet (and thus most home phones)
also break down, since both hardly have an emergency power supply for a long
time. The internet immediately, mobile network after about 20 minutes. If the
cell phone network fails, the emergency call also fails. Then it also becomes
difficult to ask people to unplug their devices, which slows down power recovery.
If the outage lasts several days to weeks, the food supply will also become
difficult. Firstly, because the refrigeration in supermarkets and large
warehouses fails and because, in addition to the problems of traffic control
without communication options such as cell phones, the trucks no longer get any
fuel. The majority of the gas stations in the area claimed by Germany do not have
emergency generators for their pumps. The emergency power supply for medical
facilities then also gets into trouble. When the fuel for the emergency power
generators has been used up, there is no longer any tap water in many places. We
will soon publish a separate text/attachment on how to prepare for power outages.

Digression: inflation
What is inflation?
Inflation describes that people can buy less for the same amount of money. The
money is "devalued". An example of this is when a roll costs 60 cents instead of
30 cents. Then you can either buy half a roll or you have to pay twice as much.
The money is then missing to buy something else. As a rule, inflation does not
only take place for one product/service, but for many at the same time. This
means that people can buy less overall for the same income.

The causes of inflation
There are two types of causes of inflation:

(Non-targeted) scarcity
The cause of inflation is a (non-targeted) shortage of goods and services. Here
something becomes more expensive because there are fewer of them. For example,
there may be less flour because the wheat needed to make flour has just become
less due to a war. So not everyone can buy what they want. Those who can afford
it pay more to keep getting what they want.
If you can't afford that much, the only choice is to buy less - to limit yourself
(more). Everyone who has more money, income or assets has an advantage here. It
would make more sense if everyone shared their needs together and then decided
how more wheat, for example, could be produced or less consumed. In our society,
which is based on imbalances of power, the problem is "solved" by the fact that
those at the bottom get less, while those at the top of society feel no
consequences and in some cases still benefit from the scarcity.

Targeted scarcity/price increase or increase in money
The other form of inflation occurs when goods are either made scarce/more
expensive or the (available) money supply of a currency is increased. Goods or
services are deliberately made scarcer/more expensive if either less is
intentionally produced or made available, or if they are bought up and then
withheld. A good example is the rise in gas prices. Russia is intentionally
making less gas available here in order to increase prices and put political
pressure on the EU. In addition, there is speculation in which future gas volumes
are bought up, thereby driving the price up further.
Another targeted form of inflation is the increase in the money supply. The state
central banks spend more money and thus increase the amount of money. If at the
same time there are no more goods or services offered, the money starts to have
less value, because there is more money, but no more what can be bought with it.
Since wages, salaries and "social benefits" usually do not increase as fast as
the money supply, people get less for their income. Above all, states benefit
from inflation caused by the increase in money, because if money becomes less
valuable, then their debts decrease. After all, interest rates on government debt
do not usually adjust to inflation to the same extent. A subtype of money-making
inflation is inflation due to low interest rates. When interest rates are low,
people receive less money on their invested money (e.g. in savings accounts, time
deposit accounts or government bonds¹). It makes less sense to put the money on
the high edge and it makes more sense to spend it. The amount of money spent to
buy goods or services increases

¹Government bonds are government loans/debts to individuals, sub-themes or other
governments.

what is money
But what actually is money?
Money is a form of permit that rewards behavior desired or required by the
prevailing social order. If we work for money, then we acquire permission later,
for example, to be able to take something in the supermarket. These permits serve
to create a compulsion to participate in the state-capitalist market.
If you don't have money, you can't feed yourself, you can't get an apartment, you
can hardly participate in culture or move around. In order to get money, they are
forced to work for the state, companies or other social institutions. Money is
therefore essentially a means of coercion. It works so well because almost
everyone participates decentrally in the capitalist market, which is maintained
by money, and thus in maintaining the compulsion to survive. Money has the
advantage here that it can be exchanged for all goods and services. It is an
abstract medium of exchange that is accepted anywhere within a country or
economic area. This is because the state safeguards the value of money by forcing
people to pay duties, fees and taxes in its currency.
Why can't people survive without this market or the state? And how did money come
about?

What is property?
To understand how money came about, we have to look back into history. The basis
of money is ownership. What is property? Ownership, unlike possession, describes
the right to completely dispose of objects, landscapes, soils, buildings, plants,
non-human animals and, above all historically, also people. The owner may lease,
rent, sell, alter, destroy or restrict access to the property. Ownership differs
from possession in that possession requires using something to satisfy concrete
needs. An example of this is tenants and landlords. Tenants are the owners of
their apartment, they use it to satisfy their need for an apartment/home.
Landlords, on the other hand, have abstract ownership rights to the apartment.
Back to history: property in its current form is linked to the emergence of
states and later capitalism. During the emergence of the first states, their
elites began to appropriate the "resources" of the population in two ways. Once
by forcing the population with military force and at the same time by promising
later salvation or reward by divine beings. Spirituality/religion, which
previously often related to the (entire) world around², began to relate to
temples in the cities. State-religious classes emerged that gathered resources
and thus formed large amounts of property. The more powerful the state and
religious institutions became, the more property they accumulated. At some point,
people were no longer only asked for what they had, rather they had to promise
future work in order to survive in the emerging markets or to pay their dues.
This is how debts came about, i.e. the "promise" to pay the owner of the debt
later with work or goods. Here, too, there is the compulsion or the idea of
having to work for the future. Money eventually came into existence as a form of
impersonal debt-that is, debt that could be resold. It was also always a means of
financing national wars. Money eventually came into existence as a form of
impersonal debt-that is, debt that could be resold. It was also always a means of
financing national wars. Money eventually came into existence as a form of
impersonal debt-that is, debt that could be resold. It was also always a means of
financing national wars.
Coins were created in ancient times to provide for soldiers: the state demanded
taxes from the population, which had to be paid in its coins. The coins were
issued to the soldiers by the state. The population was forced to sell goods to
the soldiers to get money. Those who could not pay the taxes suffered violence
from the soldiers.
Massive violence and the false promises of salvation are also found in the
origins of capitalism. The state took possession of the peasants in many places
in Europe - deprived them of the land they needed for cultivation and thus forced
them to work in the factories for money, and the belief in salvation through
work, before or after death, was intensified.
Today, it is mainly the police who are responsible for using force to maintain
the property order. The types of promises of salvation have changed for many
people, eg people now believe they would be happier by consuming many products.
In summary: Property and money are always based on oppression and violence. And
without the state, there could be no extensive property. For a solidarity-free
society without poverty, we have to get rid of property.

²We use the term environment instead of environment because the world doesn't
just surround us, we are part of it.
³To distinguish between expropriation, as an act which abolishes property by
taking it away from authority, and the state-capitalist robbing of the property
of the lower classes, we call the one expropriation and the latter dispossession.

The Current Inflation
Current inflation is a mixture of both types of inflation. Both the war in
Ukraine and the Russian gas supply stop and the consequences of the climate
catastrophe, as well as production stops caused by dealing with the pandemic,
have led to shortages of many goods. When it comes to production, China is very
central, whose government is trying to secure its own shaky power under the
pretext of Zerocovid through authoritarian measures.
At the same time, the interest rates of the European and American central banks
were very low until recently. This was used by many states in a targeted manner
to reduce interest on their debts and to force people to consume due to a lack of
investment opportunities. It has also contributed to the fact that more was
"invested" in real estate and the rental prices and prices for building/buying
houses have risen as a result. All in all, the current form of inflation, like
any other, is also a process in which the lower classes lose and the
state-capitalist elites have no problems or benefit. It is a socially created
catastrophe.

mass impoverishment
Either way, many people will become impoverished these winters simply because of
inflation. However, should a larger part of industry have to stop production,
people will be laid off in inestimable numbers, while real incomes will fall due
to inflation. People who live on ALG 1 or ALG 2 (HARTZ IV), for example, continue
to become poor and their number is increasing rapidly. In addition, the state
lacks money because tax revenues are falling due to the industrial standstill
(because of high energy prices/energy "lack"). So it's a perfect storm.
The state then has only three options.
1. Take on more and more debt, which results in higher and higher interest
payments. With central banks raising interest rates, those payments are getting a
whole lot bigger.
2. Cut government spending. That means cuts in state "social benefits".
3. Take a large part of the wealth from the elite and redistribute it socially.
But this contradicts the function of the state as a means of exploiting and
controlling the population. If states nevertheless made (minimal) "social
concessions", it was in situations where their rule as a whole was threatened. A
movement that can do this is not foreseeable in Germany.

Summary of what to prepare for.
The state will pass this crisis on to the people. More people will lose their
homes this winter, get into debt, freeze and starve. External institutions such
as the food banks that provide people with food are already overburdened in many
places. We need self-organisations and mutual help!

What we can (and should) do
Self-Organization and Mutual Aid
Creates warm spaces:

If people can't heat (anymore) next winter, they need places to warm up. These
can be either public or private.
Anarchist, autonomous or left-wing centres, all self-governing places where
larger events regularly take place, are suitable as public warm spots.
Join forces with other people and ask these places if you can open them
temporarily so that people who can no longer heat can warm up there. Then spread
the opening hours publicly, preferably not only via the Internet, but also
through posters and flyers in the area. Also remember to collect money for
heating so projects don't go broke because of it.
You can organize private places of warmth, for example, in an apartment building.
Talk to each other in the house and determine a kitchen or a living room that you
make a common room where people from different apartments can stay, so not every
room has to be heated. Here, too, it is important to pool so that the financial
burden does not have to be borne by individuals. Think of your neighbors too and
invite them to warm up with you.

Collect warm clothes, blankets and sleeping bags and masks:

There really isn't much to say about this. Good collection/distribution points
can be local food/free shops. Think about how you can reach as many people as
possible. Masks are still a good addition when many people need to be together in
tight indoor spaces.

Organizes groceries and kitchens for everyone:

Think about where you can get food (for free) and organize a camp where you
collect it. You can then start a distribution campaign. Think about what people
need and can not need. For example, it doesn't do to collect things that need to
be cooked for people without a kitchen. You should also consider how you inform
people about the distribution.
In addition, it makes sense to collect some money to buy groceries that are not
so easy to get.
Distributing hot food in the form of kitchens for everyone (KüfAs) is also a good
thing, especially when people are unable to cook due to power or gas cuts. You
also create a meeting place that enables exchange and organization.

grow food

Gathering food doesn't change our fundamental dependence on government and
corporations for food. In view of the inflation, something must be done against
the compulsion to buy groceries. In addition, no institution in the world can
conjure up food that does not exist. Food production that is as widely
distributed and decentralized as possible is less susceptible to crises such as
wars, droughts, floods or governments that want to starve the population. So
start growing your own food. That won't be possible until spring, but you should
prepare for it now. Start composting, because without "fertilizer" nothing grows
on many soils, find out about different plants, which nutrients they need, take
them from the soil or put them into it. What needs to be planted when and how to
take care of it? What different cultivation techniques such as permaculture and
food forests are there? Also think about where you get your land to grow from.
And then let's go! Every year that man starts too late is a year that man can
harvest less or nothing. We'll be releasing a list of resources on this soon.

Open meetings for self-organization and mutual aid

Organize regular open meetings where people can come who want to do something
with you or who need help because they are threatened with or are already
affected by a gas or electricity cutoff or eviction. Then think about how you can
support them. In Bochum we are preparing such a meeting for October.

Carry content into social movements

There will definitely be social reactions to the crisis. Under no circumstances
should we leave the issue to the right, as happened with authoritarian corona
measures. Therefore, prepare to carry anti-authoritarian content in street
movements from day one of possible protests. By that we don't mean to make
(populist) demands, but to spread the perspective of direct action and
self-organization, as well as a society free of domination.
So preparation makes sense, either to organize and coordinate in existing
anarchist/anti-authoritarian groups or to get together now and prepare for the
winter. Talk about how you can spread content and bring the focus of demands into
movements towards self-organization and resistance. For content material, it is
worth buying a printer for flyers and brochures. You can also order some from the
anarchist mailorder Black Mosquito .
In general, operational security should also be an important issue. The German
interior minister has already announced that the state will keep an extra keen
eye on emerging movements and "extremists". And the police will do everything to
keep unrest and protests small or to steer them to the right in their interest.
That means, for example, when anti-authoritarians come into conflict with Nazis
at demonstrations, it is clear who will (afterwards) get the bulk of the
repression. You shouldn't feel safe here either, because you're not doing
anything "illegal". The protection of the constitution is interested in
everything that is somehow critical of the state and laws can be tightened at any
time.
Therefore, deal with how you can protect yourself from surveillance and repression.
Here are a few basic tips from us:
1. Mobile phones always stay at home during demos. The only exception are demo
cell phones that run on anonymous SIM cards + were bought anonymously and the
cell phone should not be stored at home or the battery removed beforehand. With
many smartphones this is no longer possible, you would then have to shield them
with metal before you go home
2. (Your) cell phones should never be in the room when you are talking about
planned actions/participation in demos, such conversations should also not be
possible if possible take place in well-known places such as anarchist or
autonomous centers or in well-known apartments/flat shares.
3. If you have to communicate digitally with each other, always encrypted, i.e.
either with the Messenger Signal, Element or Threema. Telegram is not secure. All
end devices that you use should be encrypted. When communicating via
non-encrypted devices, use Signal and the disappearing messaging feature.
4. All your end devices, computers and mobile phones, should be encrypted and
preferably use Linux as the operating system. On smartphones, Android is better
than IOS; LineageOS is an open, google-free operating system that is not
available for every mobile phone.
5. When researching or publishing stuff online you should always use Tor/Tor
Browser. Never give out personal information.
6. No photos or videos should be taken at demonstrations, except of state
violence and repression.
We'll be publishing an appendix with more safety tips soon.

Get out of the state-capitalist infrastructure!
We not only have to start making our diet independent of the state and
capitalism, but all areas of life. This is a long process but it must start now.
We cannot keep chasing after one crisis after the other and then make prayers -
demands to a supposedly omnipotent state.
Deal with logistics and the production processes of our society and what
alternatives there are. How can we reduce demand for energy while decentralizing
supply? How can we deindustrialize at least large parts of agriculture and
manufacturing? That is, how do we get by without factory-made fertilizers,
pesticides, and automobiles when we produce food? How can we "go away" from
petroleum, gas and metal-based products to the greatest extent possible? How can
we heat and (in the future) also cool without gas, oil, coal and with as little
electrical energy as possible?
For all these questions and numerous others there are solutions or solutions, we
must stop with the utopian belief that governments and other authorities will
implement them for us. On the contrary, one thing is clear: the state and
capitalism will try to prevent us from doing so. The basis of their rule is the
control over "resources" and our dependence in all areas of life. If we build
decentralized supply by any means necessary and take back what is necessary for
this, this directly threatens the existence of capitalism and the state. They
will respond with massive repression and violence. We should prepare for that too.

Attachments are coming

We will be publishing attachments over the next few weeks on specific
suggestions, safety issues, alternatives and preparing for power outages.

https://schwarzerub.blackblogs.org/2022/09/13/winter-is-already-here-was-auf-uns-in-der-versorgunskrise-zukommt-und-was-wir-tun-koennen/#more-1393
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