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zaterdag 6 april 2024

WORLD WORLDWIDE BELARUS PRAMEN - (en) Belarus, Pramen: PUTIN'S REELECTION VICTORY IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]


No one doubted the ability of Vladimir Putin and his cohort to draw a
50%+ figure to maintain their own power. It would be naive to believe
that any action in the controlled environment of the polling stations
could affect the percentages displayed on the screens of the Russian
empire and the entire planet. Whether you spoil a ballot, write a
message on it, or nuke a polling station, Putin will still consistently
win. ---- Smart voting, apps on phones and even prayers will not be able
to influence the results of the vote. ---- But that's not the victory we
want to talk about today. Rather, we want to talk about the political
victory around mobilization before the election itself. It has been
clear to an outside observer for months that the Russian opposition
would try to use at least partially the scenario of the Belarus protests
in the hope of moving something. Show up at the polling stations at noon
- this is the same moment of decentralized assembly that became one of
the key organizing factors for the post-August 9 protests.

But unfortunately, the analysis of the Russian opposition largely
ignored the success story of the Belarusan uprising and decided to use
rather symbolic parts of the protest against Lukashenko: from collecting
signatures for a "new" politician, to strange attempts to choose a
right-wing politician allowed by Putin's regime as a protest candidate.

In Belarus in 2020, street mobilization began almost on the first day of
the announcement of the elections themselves. And the main role in
preparing for the uprising against the dictatorship was played not by a
few well-known politicians, but by a significant number of
self-organized groups throughout the country, even in small towns and
villages.

On the one hand the relatively tight control of the street by the regime
prevented any organization inside Russia. But on the other hand, the
situation in many regions is not much different in terms of repression
than in Belarus in the spring of 2020. Yes, political opponents are
detained and left for 24 hours, and somewhere for years. People leave
the state because of political repression, and violence against
individuals is largely ignored by the majority of the population.

The only difference is that while in Belarus there were new political
forces and a new desire to change things, today's liberal Russian
opposition is a continuation of the tradition of vaguely resisting
Putin's rise to power. Instead of creating a revolutionary movement, the
opposition continues to watch videos by bloggers like Katz, hoping to
find some explanation for their own helplessness and the stagnation of
the entire society.

In such an atmosphere, it's quite easy for Putin to win - he doesn't
even need complete control over the vertical as in Belarus. Despite all
the chaos inside Russia, Putin continues to win the struggle for power
not only because of the strength of his own fist, but also because of
the weakness of opponents of the authoritarian regime.

The 2024 elections once again showed the powerlessness of the Russian
opposition in matters of political mobilization. A very modest number of
people came out to the protest on Sunday (even compared to the thousands
who came to Navalny's funeral). Yes, there were pictures of queues from
abroad, but it remains a mystery to us why one should queue at an
embassy in Warsaw if one already knows the results, and one does not
need to find any "loopholes" to gather opponents of the regime.

Attempts by the opposition to show that not all Russians support Putin
have recently turned into some kind of parody of political struggle, and
instead of real change, it is enough to say that a few hundred people
came to the action to succeed. It is important to learn to rejoice in
small things?

Putin won this cycle of political struggle with a crushing effect on the
opposition - Navalny's assassination provoked quiet mourning instead of
anger, and the misanthropic ideology of the Russian world continues to
be an everyday reality.

Everyone understands perfectly well that there are enough people in
Russia who oppose the war, and even in many ways, that number can affect
the end of the regime. But at this stage there is no political force
within Russia itself capable of mobilizing the protest potential, and
the longer the war lasts, the less chance there is of overthrowing the
regime. Russia, no matter how fascist it was, allowed various political
forces to organize relatively freely for quite a long time. Even today,
political projects that clearly contradict the Kremlin's ideology
continue to exist within the country. But the further into the crisis,
the less probability of any social revolt against the regime.

For Belarusians abroad and inside Lukashenko's dictatorship, the
elections in Russia do not give any hope for political changes in the
region. Yes, in 2025 there will be a new re-election of Lukashenko. Yes,
historically this period has been the most unstable for the regime and
has attracted new generations of opponents of the dictatorship into
political movements. But we continue to see that any changes in Belarus
are impossible without the collapse of Putin's regime. Even if
Belarusians take to the streets with rocks and sticks, Putin will not
allow Lukashenko to lose power.

And if the Russian society is not ready to engage in the overthrow of
Putin, the only way out for us is to support the Ukrainian resistance in
the war with the so-called Russian world. Putin's military defeat and
the political collapse of the Russian dictatorship will be an important
contribution to freeing Belarus from dictatorship.

https://pramen.io/en/2024/03/putin-s-reelection-victory-in-the-russian-federation/
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