While the slaughter on the battlefields of the Ukrainian war continues
unabated, wiping out a generation of Ukrainians and depopulating the
country, the collateral effects of the conflict are beginning to occur
in the EU enlargement area. As few pro-Western analysts predicted, the
prolongation of the conflict ended up benefitting Russia which
effectively converted its economy by putting it at the service of the
war, pouring onto the battlefield the greater availability of men at its
disposal, due to its size. of the country. The result is that Ukrainian
resistance is increasingly frayed. beyond its President's propaganda
emphasis on the final outcomes of the war.
The conflict has only exacerbated the problems of the country which, as
a first effect, has become depopulated due to gigantic immigration,
depriving itself of about a quarter of its population. Ukraine today is
destroyed, its territory is polluted by war, its budget does not exist;
the country lives on Western funding, society is divided:
a real religious war is underway between the autocephalous State
Orthodox Church, considered schismatic by most Orthodox Churches, and
the canonical Orthodox Church of Ukraine, affiliated to the Patriarchate
of Moscow , even if from this it
obtained a very large autonomy.[1]The country is devastated by
corruption and is prey to war speculators, while desperately, under the
pressure of Western financing countries, the government tries to counter
it, by having this or that minister resign, and is forced to fire the
corrupt recruiters , like many other state officials, who in exchange
for money help draft dodgers avoid going into combat. The ordeal of
blood shed in the name of the nation - on which Ukrainian nationalism,
which the war strongly desired, is nourished - does not seem to produce
effects; the signs of disintegration of social cohesion, due to
ethnic-linguistic contrasts, are growing; the historical minorities of
Sub-Carpathian Ruthenia, of Magyar language and culture. they are
looking more and more carefully at Hungary, while the government of that
country issues them double passports. The same happens for the Romanian
language and culture minority that lives there Herta region, which is
part of the Chernivtsi oblast, requested and obtained from the Romanian
Orthodox Church the establishment of an Eparchy on Ukrainian territory,
to guarantee the maintenance and strengthening of its identity. The
Polish minority in the Lviv area feels increasingly tied to their
homeland, while the number of draft dodgers and deserters who flee
abroad rather than making an effort to go and fight in Donbass is
increasing, a territory that appears far away and for which we he
wonders if it's worth dying for.
To partially remedy this situation, Ukraine's diplomatic representations
abroad have received instructions prohibiting them from leaving any
documents to expatriate Ukrainians who are of military service age and
who increase from returning home to enlist, with the result that the
exodus from the country of a significant and young part of its
population is about to become definitive.
The war and Russian objectives
Upon closer inspection, Moscow's strategic project appears increasingly
clear: after having engaged the Ukrainian army on a front of more than
1000 km, the Russians aim to break through the front, operating behind
the Ukrainian trenches.
Since May 9th, an army corps of 30,000 has advanced on the Karkiv route,
operating in a marshy area, devoid of natural defenses. It is possible
that the Russians intend to overcome the city, closing it in an enclave,
and then continuing south to get behind the Donbas trenches, aiming at
the same time at the banks of the Dnper river, as a new natural border
of a buffer area of territory on which they intend to exercise their
jurisdiction to secure the Russian borders. The total control of the
coast of the Sea of Azof, up to the Dnper delta and part of the
Karkinyts'ke gulf, up to Odessa, significantly reduces Ukraine's access
to the sea.
The acquisition of these portions of territory would contribute
significantly to the consolidation of the Russian presence in Crimea,
completing the new territorial structure and would resize the country by
reducing its strategic weight. Whether this is done with a peace
accepted by both belligerents, as a solution to the conflict, or simply
as an effect of the ceasefire or as the product of an armistice line on
the Korean model, matters little, since under these conditions the
strategic objective security for Russia would be achieved.
Ukraine's mistake, badly advised by its Western allies, was not to
accept the peace plan developed in the Istanbul talks, which as the
documents published by Foreign Affairs, a publication close to the
Pentagon, demonstrate, two months later the beginning of the war, when
Russia was in obvious difficulty, envisaged the
demilitarization of the country, its neutrality, the Russian withdrawal
from Donbas, a referendum in 14 years regarding Crimea, the possibility
of Ukraine's entry into the European Union. Then the Americans and the
English forced Zelensky to refuse an agreement because they wanted to
wage a war of attrition against Russia and at the same time they needed
the time necessary to destroy Nord Stream 2 and sever any energy link
between the European Union and Russia.
The result was the massacre of the Ukrainian and Russian people, the use
of the young people of both countries as cannon fodder, such immense
destruction that today they are left with a devastated, reduced
territory, deprived of the majority of its population. , with economic
weight and resources, with a certainly reduced strategic role.
The borders of the European Union
By supporting Ukraine in the war, the European Union moved in the belief
that its natural borders include this territory: hence the choice to
confer on Ukraine the status of candidate country, the promise of its
entry into NATO, the solemn declarations aimed at the enlargement of the
Union to the East, in the belief that the
attractive force of the European Union has no alternatives for any of
the states in the area.
Except that the Ukrainian war is giving rise to other possibilities and
other perspectives. A signal in this direction comes from the results of
Xi Jinping's very recent trip to Serbia and Hungary: the first country,
a candidate to join the Union, the second a rebellious member.
The intentions expressed by the Chinese clearly demonstrate that they
want to make Belgrade and its territory a bridgehead towards Europe,
flanked by a terminal within the Union, constituted by Hungary. Between
the two countries, which will be united by a high-speed infrastructure,
financed and built by the Chinese, investments will be made regarding
both the construction of electric cars and batteries, so that the
production of these can have the natural market western. The expected
effect is to produce a strong economic development of the two countries,
with the
difference that, while Belgrade benefits from its role as the European
terminal of the "Silk Road", Hungary eats from the bowls of two masters,
milking on the one hand the community cow and on the other feasting with
the Chinese, of which it places the goods produced in an EU country on
the community market without paying particular duties.
On a geostrategic level, the effects of what is happening are not
secondary since they will create a center of economic-political
development that risks attracting the Balkan countries, which have so
many difficulties in being accepted within the European Union, although
many efforts have been made to adapt to the community aequis and who now
see themselves bypassed by Ukraine, which has become a privileged
interlocutor, while they remain at a standstill.
The first "pin" to fall could be North Macedonia, where a newly elected
right-wing government is taking office which looks with suspicion at the
European Union, which sees Serbia as the great protector, which has
freed the Macedonian minority of the population from blackmail from
Bulgaria which, together with Greece, strenuously opposes its entry into
the Union.
Another country in the balance is Montenegro, whose ties with Serbia are
far from severed; faced with the persistent difficulties of entry into
Europe, the tendency for the excluded to move closer to Belgrade could
grow, involving neighboring Bosnia.
The variable represented by Turkey should not be underestimated, which
has great ambitions to strengthen its presence in the Western Balkans
and cultivates excellent relations with China; therefore it has every
interest in establishing relations with the Asian giant, especially if
the Western project of creating the so-called "Hemp Road" comes to
fruition. Turkey, acting in contrast with the Arab countries involved in
the project which gathers the interest of India, the Gulf countries and
Israel, could find it convenient to establish an axis of alternative
economic development linked to China and at the same time to Serbia and
the Hungary.
The ancient German project of subjugation of the Balkans and their
incorporation into the EU, initiated by German politics, which wanted
the destruction of the former Yugoslavia, in order to prevent the
formation of a pole would thus be lost or enormously damaged. of
attraction outside the European Union in the Western Balkans, the
continent's traditional area of instability, in order to then be able to
absorb the individual countries one by one.
To fully understand what is happening, it is necessary to reflect on the
causes of the war in Ukraine: from a careful reconstructive analysis of
the events - if carefully conducted - it would emerge that if it is true
that the war began with the improvident and criminal Russian invasion,
it It is also true that the destabilization of Ukraine is the result of
the joint action of the United States and Great Britain, which began in
the aftermath of the events in Maidan Square and came to fruition with
the fueling of Ukrainian nationalism and the outbreak of civil war in
the country.[2]
The US variable and European interests
It is a shared opinion among all analysts that the continuation of the
war in Ukraine is connected to the results of the elections in the
United States. In fact, if Biden were to be re-elected he has already
declared that the war will continue while Trump promises to interrupt
the conflict or at least cease the supply of weapons and financing from
the United States. However, in both cases, the need to contain Chinese
foreign policy will eventually prevail. whatever the sign of the US
administration, we will move towards the search for a compromise, with
the result that Ukraine will still have to pay the price of a truce,
even if warlike, with the sole result of having borne a terrible cost
constituted by the destruction of a large part of the Ukrainian
population and territory and by a growing crisis in the EU.
It would therefore be wise for European diplomacy to contribute to
creating the conditions as soon as possible for a peace negotiation that
would reflect the interests of the Union but also those of the Ukrainian
people, who will be forced to negotiate in
conditions of increasing difficulty on the battlefield .
The Editorial Staff
[1]G. Cimbalo, The evolution of relations between State and Churches in
New Ukraine. In search of Autocephaly , in "Law and religions" 2-2020,
pp. 252-304;ID., The unspoken role of the Churches in the
Russian-Ukrainian conflict , in "Law and religions" n. 2 of 2021, pp.
487-512; ID., The Ukrainian war and the destabilization of ecumenical
relations, Conscience and freedom , 2021, n° 61/62, pp. 135-144.
[2]GL, Putin and Zelensky are equal for us , Newsletter Crescita
Politica, n. 184, 2024 . The collapse of the internal front in Ukraine ,
Newsletter Crescita Politica, n. 180, 2023; Two considerations on
Ukraine , Political Growth Newsletter, n. 176, 2023; The failures of the
Ukrainian war , Newsletter Crescita Politica, n. 170, 2023; The economic
causes of the Ukrainian war , Newsletter Crescita Politica, n. 160,
2023; War in Ukraine: the British track , Newsletter Crescita Politica,
n. 158, 2022; Zelesky's Ukraine before Putin , Political Growth
Newsletter, n. 158, 2022; The beggar and the dictator , Newsletter
Crescita Politica, n. 183, 2024 .
https://www.ucadi.org/2024/05/22/macelleria-ucraina-ed-effetti-collaterali/
_________________________________________
A - I N F O S N E W S S E R V I C E
By, For, and About Anarchists
Send news reports to A-infos-en mailing list
A-infos-en@ainfos.ca
unabated, wiping out a generation of Ukrainians and depopulating the
country, the collateral effects of the conflict are beginning to occur
in the EU enlargement area. As few pro-Western analysts predicted, the
prolongation of the conflict ended up benefitting Russia which
effectively converted its economy by putting it at the service of the
war, pouring onto the battlefield the greater availability of men at its
disposal, due to its size. of the country. The result is that Ukrainian
resistance is increasingly frayed. beyond its President's propaganda
emphasis on the final outcomes of the war.
The conflict has only exacerbated the problems of the country which, as
a first effect, has become depopulated due to gigantic immigration,
depriving itself of about a quarter of its population. Ukraine today is
destroyed, its territory is polluted by war, its budget does not exist;
the country lives on Western funding, society is divided:
a real religious war is underway between the autocephalous State
Orthodox Church, considered schismatic by most Orthodox Churches, and
the canonical Orthodox Church of Ukraine, affiliated to the Patriarchate
of Moscow , even if from this it
obtained a very large autonomy.[1]The country is devastated by
corruption and is prey to war speculators, while desperately, under the
pressure of Western financing countries, the government tries to counter
it, by having this or that minister resign, and is forced to fire the
corrupt recruiters , like many other state officials, who in exchange
for money help draft dodgers avoid going into combat. The ordeal of
blood shed in the name of the nation - on which Ukrainian nationalism,
which the war strongly desired, is nourished - does not seem to produce
effects; the signs of disintegration of social cohesion, due to
ethnic-linguistic contrasts, are growing; the historical minorities of
Sub-Carpathian Ruthenia, of Magyar language and culture. they are
looking more and more carefully at Hungary, while the government of that
country issues them double passports. The same happens for the Romanian
language and culture minority that lives there Herta region, which is
part of the Chernivtsi oblast, requested and obtained from the Romanian
Orthodox Church the establishment of an Eparchy on Ukrainian territory,
to guarantee the maintenance and strengthening of its identity. The
Polish minority in the Lviv area feels increasingly tied to their
homeland, while the number of draft dodgers and deserters who flee
abroad rather than making an effort to go and fight in Donbass is
increasing, a territory that appears far away and for which we he
wonders if it's worth dying for.
To partially remedy this situation, Ukraine's diplomatic representations
abroad have received instructions prohibiting them from leaving any
documents to expatriate Ukrainians who are of military service age and
who increase from returning home to enlist, with the result that the
exodus from the country of a significant and young part of its
population is about to become definitive.
The war and Russian objectives
Upon closer inspection, Moscow's strategic project appears increasingly
clear: after having engaged the Ukrainian army on a front of more than
1000 km, the Russians aim to break through the front, operating behind
the Ukrainian trenches.
Since May 9th, an army corps of 30,000 has advanced on the Karkiv route,
operating in a marshy area, devoid of natural defenses. It is possible
that the Russians intend to overcome the city, closing it in an enclave,
and then continuing south to get behind the Donbas trenches, aiming at
the same time at the banks of the Dnper river, as a new natural border
of a buffer area of territory on which they intend to exercise their
jurisdiction to secure the Russian borders. The total control of the
coast of the Sea of Azof, up to the Dnper delta and part of the
Karkinyts'ke gulf, up to Odessa, significantly reduces Ukraine's access
to the sea.
The acquisition of these portions of territory would contribute
significantly to the consolidation of the Russian presence in Crimea,
completing the new territorial structure and would resize the country by
reducing its strategic weight. Whether this is done with a peace
accepted by both belligerents, as a solution to the conflict, or simply
as an effect of the ceasefire or as the product of an armistice line on
the Korean model, matters little, since under these conditions the
strategic objective security for Russia would be achieved.
Ukraine's mistake, badly advised by its Western allies, was not to
accept the peace plan developed in the Istanbul talks, which as the
documents published by Foreign Affairs, a publication close to the
Pentagon, demonstrate, two months later the beginning of the war, when
Russia was in obvious difficulty, envisaged the
demilitarization of the country, its neutrality, the Russian withdrawal
from Donbas, a referendum in 14 years regarding Crimea, the possibility
of Ukraine's entry into the European Union. Then the Americans and the
English forced Zelensky to refuse an agreement because they wanted to
wage a war of attrition against Russia and at the same time they needed
the time necessary to destroy Nord Stream 2 and sever any energy link
between the European Union and Russia.
The result was the massacre of the Ukrainian and Russian people, the use
of the young people of both countries as cannon fodder, such immense
destruction that today they are left with a devastated, reduced
territory, deprived of the majority of its population. , with economic
weight and resources, with a certainly reduced strategic role.
The borders of the European Union
By supporting Ukraine in the war, the European Union moved in the belief
that its natural borders include this territory: hence the choice to
confer on Ukraine the status of candidate country, the promise of its
entry into NATO, the solemn declarations aimed at the enlargement of the
Union to the East, in the belief that the
attractive force of the European Union has no alternatives for any of
the states in the area.
Except that the Ukrainian war is giving rise to other possibilities and
other perspectives. A signal in this direction comes from the results of
Xi Jinping's very recent trip to Serbia and Hungary: the first country,
a candidate to join the Union, the second a rebellious member.
The intentions expressed by the Chinese clearly demonstrate that they
want to make Belgrade and its territory a bridgehead towards Europe,
flanked by a terminal within the Union, constituted by Hungary. Between
the two countries, which will be united by a high-speed infrastructure,
financed and built by the Chinese, investments will be made regarding
both the construction of electric cars and batteries, so that the
production of these can have the natural market western. The expected
effect is to produce a strong economic development of the two countries,
with the
difference that, while Belgrade benefits from its role as the European
terminal of the "Silk Road", Hungary eats from the bowls of two masters,
milking on the one hand the community cow and on the other feasting with
the Chinese, of which it places the goods produced in an EU country on
the community market without paying particular duties.
On a geostrategic level, the effects of what is happening are not
secondary since they will create a center of economic-political
development that risks attracting the Balkan countries, which have so
many difficulties in being accepted within the European Union, although
many efforts have been made to adapt to the community aequis and who now
see themselves bypassed by Ukraine, which has become a privileged
interlocutor, while they remain at a standstill.
The first "pin" to fall could be North Macedonia, where a newly elected
right-wing government is taking office which looks with suspicion at the
European Union, which sees Serbia as the great protector, which has
freed the Macedonian minority of the population from blackmail from
Bulgaria which, together with Greece, strenuously opposes its entry into
the Union.
Another country in the balance is Montenegro, whose ties with Serbia are
far from severed; faced with the persistent difficulties of entry into
Europe, the tendency for the excluded to move closer to Belgrade could
grow, involving neighboring Bosnia.
The variable represented by Turkey should not be underestimated, which
has great ambitions to strengthen its presence in the Western Balkans
and cultivates excellent relations with China; therefore it has every
interest in establishing relations with the Asian giant, especially if
the Western project of creating the so-called "Hemp Road" comes to
fruition. Turkey, acting in contrast with the Arab countries involved in
the project which gathers the interest of India, the Gulf countries and
Israel, could find it convenient to establish an axis of alternative
economic development linked to China and at the same time to Serbia and
the Hungary.
The ancient German project of subjugation of the Balkans and their
incorporation into the EU, initiated by German politics, which wanted
the destruction of the former Yugoslavia, in order to prevent the
formation of a pole would thus be lost or enormously damaged. of
attraction outside the European Union in the Western Balkans, the
continent's traditional area of instability, in order to then be able to
absorb the individual countries one by one.
To fully understand what is happening, it is necessary to reflect on the
causes of the war in Ukraine: from a careful reconstructive analysis of
the events - if carefully conducted - it would emerge that if it is true
that the war began with the improvident and criminal Russian invasion,
it It is also true that the destabilization of Ukraine is the result of
the joint action of the United States and Great Britain, which began in
the aftermath of the events in Maidan Square and came to fruition with
the fueling of Ukrainian nationalism and the outbreak of civil war in
the country.[2]
The US variable and European interests
It is a shared opinion among all analysts that the continuation of the
war in Ukraine is connected to the results of the elections in the
United States. In fact, if Biden were to be re-elected he has already
declared that the war will continue while Trump promises to interrupt
the conflict or at least cease the supply of weapons and financing from
the United States. However, in both cases, the need to contain Chinese
foreign policy will eventually prevail. whatever the sign of the US
administration, we will move towards the search for a compromise, with
the result that Ukraine will still have to pay the price of a truce,
even if warlike, with the sole result of having borne a terrible cost
constituted by the destruction of a large part of the Ukrainian
population and territory and by a growing crisis in the EU.
It would therefore be wise for European diplomacy to contribute to
creating the conditions as soon as possible for a peace negotiation that
would reflect the interests of the Union but also those of the Ukrainian
people, who will be forced to negotiate in
conditions of increasing difficulty on the battlefield .
The Editorial Staff
[1]G. Cimbalo, The evolution of relations between State and Churches in
New Ukraine. In search of Autocephaly , in "Law and religions" 2-2020,
pp. 252-304;ID., The unspoken role of the Churches in the
Russian-Ukrainian conflict , in "Law and religions" n. 2 of 2021, pp.
487-512; ID., The Ukrainian war and the destabilization of ecumenical
relations, Conscience and freedom , 2021, n° 61/62, pp. 135-144.
[2]GL, Putin and Zelensky are equal for us , Newsletter Crescita
Politica, n. 184, 2024 . The collapse of the internal front in Ukraine ,
Newsletter Crescita Politica, n. 180, 2023; Two considerations on
Ukraine , Political Growth Newsletter, n. 176, 2023; The failures of the
Ukrainian war , Newsletter Crescita Politica, n. 170, 2023; The economic
causes of the Ukrainian war , Newsletter Crescita Politica, n. 160,
2023; War in Ukraine: the British track , Newsletter Crescita Politica,
n. 158, 2022; Zelesky's Ukraine before Putin , Political Growth
Newsletter, n. 158, 2022; The beggar and the dictator , Newsletter
Crescita Politica, n. 183, 2024 .
https://www.ucadi.org/2024/05/22/macelleria-ucraina-ed-effetti-collaterali/
_________________________________________
A - I N F O S N E W S S E R V I C E
By, For, and About Anarchists
Send news reports to A-infos-en mailing list
A-infos-en@ainfos.ca
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