Even just six months ago, most of Russia's large-scale attacks began with Shahed-type attack drones. They were slow enough that, when the air-raid siren sounded — usually in the middle of the night — Kyiv residents had time to get dressed, grab their things, and reach a shelter. Now, more and more attacks begin with ballistic missiles, which are way faster and harder to intercept than Shahed-type drones, and which can reach Kyiv within two minutes. Sometimes, the explosions come before the siren. So instead of waiting for an alarm, people are increasingly deciding to go underground in advance, before the air raid sirens even sound. I often see it when I come home late from work. People are already in the metro, laying out their mattresses and sleeping bags, preparing to spend the night underground. I will probably see it tonight too, as I'm writing this email late in the evening. And it is no coincidence that Russia has intensified its use of ballistic missiles now. The U.S.-made Patriot interceptors capable of shooting them down have always been in short supply in Ukraine. But the shortage has never been as severe as it is today. And of course, Russia is exploiting this shortage to strike poorly defended Ukrainian cities hundreds of kilometers from the front line. It can be hard to explain what this feels like, but the numbers can give an idea. In July 2026 alone, Russia launched more than 100 ballistic missiles at Kyiv and the surrounding region. For comparison, throughout all of 2023, just over 50 ballistic missiles targeted the capital. |
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