Portugal, Demonstration in front of the Argentine Embassy in Lisbon April 3 (Thursday) at Av John Chrysostom, 8, 18:00 (pt)

Following a strike by oil workers 20 days in 2006, Las Heras, the judiciary ordered the 
arrest of several workers. These reacted manifesting with the municipality and were 
violently repressed. In confused circumstances eventually died a police officer. ensued a 
fierce workers and the public prosecution, the town of Las Heras was militarized, brought 
up curfew and several people were persecuted, imprisoned and tortured. spite of only thing 
proven at trial in December 2013 were the tortures suffered by workers in the hands of the 
police, four workers were sentenced to life imprisonment and six others to five years in 
prison for alleged aggravated coercion, injury and murder of a policeman. Criminalizing 
the struggles of workers is common in Argentina and around the place where people organize 
to fight for a better life. But we believe that solidarity among the exploited and 
oppressed will always be stronger than all the repression! immediate Absolution workers 
Las Heras!

More info on the blog of OUT, the section of the AIT in Argentina:http://fora-ait.com .ar 
/ blog /

Portugal, Conference of Libertarians in Set?bal Day 1 and 2 (pt)

Day 1 ---- Participated throughout the day today in Libertarian Conference taking place in 
Set?bal, in Athenaeum Setubalense . On average - sometimes more, some less - about 30 
attended anarchist militants, mainly representing groups, individuals or spaces in the 
area south of the country - Alentejo, ?vora, Set?bal, Lisbon, Coimbra. Although there was 
a schedule previously set in the morning, the discussion was reserved for the specific 
topics of the libertarian movement and everyone present gave a presentation of reality in 
their area or association. The conclusion is that the realities are different, although 
patent growth of sympathy for libertarian ideas and assemblearias, together with greater 
visibility collective of anarchists who have played various activities in connection with 
the emerging social movements, but also clearly demarcating the left and the extreme left 
of the system.

The lunch break led us to COSA (House Okupada Setubal self-managed) where a vegetarian 
lunch was served to the participants at the Conference. The COSA is an example of a longer 
occupation with history. The occupation dates back to the early 2000s and is a meeting 
place and resistance anarchist and anti-authoritarian in Set?bal and a reference to the 
libertarian movement in Portugal.

The Conference proceedings were resumed shortly after two in the afternoon and was set to 
create a mail list among diverse groups and individuals present (the others, since that 
request, can be associated), as a basis for assistance and preparation common action and 
may be the beginning of a network anarchist, although informal, covering the whole territory.

After beginning the sessions were open to the general public, with more people in the 
room. The debate was conducted by Vitor Lima (Indignados Lisbon) and the theme was "Social 
Movements Libertarians in demonstrations." It was a very involved and debate between 
different points, was referred to the need for anarchists to participate and influence the 
various social movements - many basic libertarian - and highlighted the need for a deeper 
understanding of the problems that capitalism and crosses solutions that transform 
society, from a libertarian perspective, can be envisaged.

Then one of the elements of the Collective Gon?alves Correia de Castro Verde, presented 
the latest issue of the magazine Alembic on alternative root rural communities. Another 
important issue that motivated also participated in a debate. This was followed by dinner 
in COSA.

For this Sunday (where, in principle, not be able to participate) will be discussed in the 
morning the possibility to organize some Journeys Libertarian south of the Tagus 
(polinucleadas) and a conversation around an invitation extended to a rally in the 1st May 
in Set?bal. At most there will be two public debate on important issues: "The mechanisms 
of domination" and the discussion around the libertarian journal "MAP" whose 1st issue was 
published recently.

Just two notes: I participated in the discussions during the day were important, 
especially as building space of a libertarian movement that has managed to renew. And, in 
this sense, it is important to emphasize the high quality theoretical and soul of the 
youth who constitute the overwhelming majority of participants in this first day of 
debates CLS2013.

-----------------------------------------------

Taking account of the 2nd day of the Libertarianconference in Setubal

Rather than we had initially thought, after all we can (3 elements Collective Libertarian 
?vora) we present today on the 2nd day of the Conference Libertarian Set?bal, but this 
time it was time a little lost for many miles we had to travel between ?vora and Set?bal. 
If yesterday the debate about whether Social Movements, Communities Anarchists want about 
(cover story of the magazine Alembic) were excited and contextualized, this Sunday session 
began just after lunch, bringing the debate to the organization of the 1st of May. Little 
is said - but that will be good companions Set?bal bring forward everything that we 
decide, in ?vora, will support them - and it was a time spent with little use.

Also was scheduled for today to discuss the performance of each Journeys Libertarian - but 
did not.

Then he was scheduled to debate on the newspaper MAP that recently left the 1st paragraph. 
Many employees were present, but it was difficult to get some idea. While considering the 
MAP a successful experience, useful and evolving, still can not understand, for example, 
if this is an anarchist newspaper or want to join several ideological positions that are 
not recognized in the system, can not understand what is meant by when he refers you want 
to "connect" the fights (a newspaper that comes out every two months, is more a magazine. 
lacks immediacy and timeliness); seemed to me that the graphics and text density are not 
consistent with the make the idea of "popular", ie, appealing to a public that, from the 
outset, not "gain" for the "cause"; reaffirmed that the draft paper should not disregard 
the draft on the Internet, accessible to more people. I put these issues on the table and 
were somehow poorly received by some of those present - especially when he said (and I 
repeat) that a newspaper should be something more than a collection of egos (of selves) - 
must have a project perceptible and clear in its genesis and definition that fulfills the 
objectives for which it was created (and in this case, I suppose be to give information 
not manipulated, alternative system to the media concerning the principles and active 
anti-authoritarians ).

Other companions praised the newspaper, others made specific criticisms, but it was all 
very lightly, superficially. For my part I leave here writing what there said I value the 
work and dedication of these young and old companions, their commitment and the certainty 
that this "school of journalism" will be important either for this or for future projects. 
But please accept criticism, repairs - even less fair. A newspaper, to be, has to be a 
collective project of those who do, those who have read it and those who have not yet 
read. A newspaper is its content - but especially the usefulness it may have or not to 
your readers. And often in the media there is a libertarian and an almost arrogant 
self-sufficiency in the face of any criticism, that does not mean strength - but weakness 
and fear of confronting ourselves with what we dislike.

After not seen the end of the conference, for reasons of agenda, but from what I 
understand is slightly more advanced. If the first day of the conference is still "saved", 
even having a good time, this second day nothing concrete has been defined in terms 
internal to the libertarian movement, nor any proposal out here working together, unless 
the creation of a mail list.

Was little and, despite good logistical work developed by fellow Set?bal to this 
conference if he had done and the fact that many of us having known or rediscovered, 
resulting always an added value, this conference represented an opportunity that was not 
harnessed to discuss issues relevant internal and coming from the Porto conference last 
September, including coordinated activities or the development of a more functional 
platform for mutual aid between organizations, groups, or individuals anarchist spaces. It 
also showed that a conference of this kind has to be better organized, with most debated 
issues and interventions and better prepared, and with preparatory work involving indeed 
the generality of the anarchist movement in Portuguese territory, leading him to 
participate and submit proposals designed and structured. What, he was not happened this time.

But, of course, the path is made by walking and there will be other opportunities. Except 
that, given the emergence of social movement derived from the current context, it is 
important a more effective presence of the Portuguese anarchists in the forefront in the 
struggle for social transformation. And what happens (as has happened over recent decades) 
is that often the worst enemy of anarchism are anarchists who do not know the 
opportunities for growth and influence on the social struggles that reality has offered 
them almost Hand-lapped. And this is the case of today's world: the anarchist movement, 
again, do not grow and do not create deep roots in Portuguese society, the only fault we 
can be assacada.

(Regarding a possible manifesto, conclusions or final communique did not know if there 
will be, although fellow Set?bal have taken notes to make a record of the meeting). After 
all, for them, in the end, a word of gratitude for the commitment, dedication and effort 
(despite the scarcity of resources) that organized the conference. They did what they 
could, from what I saw. And the best they could.

Portugal, Ac??o Directa #2 - p7 Mem?ria Libert?ria: Jaime Rebelo + (pt)

Jaime Rebelo ---- He was born December 22, 1900, in Set?bal the anarcho-syndicalist and 
anti-fascist resistance. Fisherman and maritime profession, still young joined the General 
Confederation of Labour (CGT), which was a major contributor in Set?bal. ---- He lived 
most of his life in Cacilhas. ---- As anarcho-syndicalist militant was one of the 
animators, with Francisco Rodriguez Franco, the Class Association of Workers of the Sea of 
??Set?bal, better known as "Fisherman's House", which was closed following the coup of 28 
May 1926, which could save important documents. ---- In 1931, as a result of the "Strike 
of the 92 days," was arrested and tortured by the PIDE. During interrogation, he cut his 
tongue with his own teeth to keep talking and to report the companions. --- Knowing this, 
the writer Jaime devotes one of his most beautiful poems (see box) - The Human Romance 
Mouth Closed. This poem circulated clandestinely throughout the Salazar dictatorship in 
1937 and was published in the Communist newspaper "Forward", which sought, then, enforce a 
policy of Popular Front.

Once in freedom and a victim of persecution
constant emigrated to Spain. There
he joined the anarcho-syndicalist CNT and during
the Spanish Revolution was part of the militia
confederal and commanded a unit that
fought on the southern front. With the triumph
Fascist Spain, went to France, returning
then to Portugal where he continued to
fight against the dictatorship of the Estado Novo, winning
life after 1968 as a statutory
newspaper "The Republic", next to also
anarchist Francisco Quintal.

After the April 25 chaired the first
General Assembly restored "House of
Fishermen "and participated in the formation of
Cooperative Publisher of "The Battle", former
Daily Newspaper of the CGT. Active member of
Portuguese Libertarian Movement (MLP)
participated in the creation of the newspaper "The Voice
Anarchist ", published by the Centre for Culture
Libertarian Almada. Jaime Rebelo died at 7
January 1975. The historian of Caesar
Oliveira gave him a study "Jaime
Rebelo: a man beyond time "
published in March 1995 in the journal
History. In the neighborhood of Saint Julian in Set?bal
There is an avenue named after him.

-------------------------------------------------- -

Men who met Adriano Botelho, Modesto and Artur Rebelo Jaime

Immediately after the April 25 I had the privilege of
meet and mingle with some anarchist militants
and anarcho-syndicalists, survivors still
the former General Confederation of Labor or
of the Young Unionists. Most walked
now in his 70s, had spent many
by Tarrafal, others were years and years in
underground.

Today remember old strain of three anarchists.
Each one is unique and any of them
worth much more than any commission
centerpiece of any party or grupozito.
Adriano Botelho, when met, would already 80
years. In a poignant tenderness in years
Fascism, isolated from peers, copied
a small print texts and anarchists would them
spreading by buses and trams by the
Carris in Lisbon. It was his way, with
means had to advertise. Edited,
I believe that already in 1975, a small pamphlet with
essence of their ideas.

Artur Modesto, was an old cobbler Beja,
activist of the Young Unionists. For I have
Lisbon also arrived that year, 1974,
coming from Beja, connected us special ties
friendship. Arthur was a revolutionary in Modesto
seriously - but the pacifism of a whole race.

Humanist, self-taught, he became secretary
Ant?nio S?rgio particular, and with it, shared
a special affection for the cooperative.
He told me that was the Awakening of Beja, in his
early comprising young anarcho-syndicalists
which adopted the name of the newspaper
of the Young Unionists - The Awakening - for
abbreviation of the club.

To leave last Jaime Rebelo. A man
dry and stiff. When I met him in 1974 still
had speech problems. Was in the struggles of
fishermen of Setubal, after the Revolution
Spanish, integrating the ranks of the CNT. Arrested
in the 30s by the political police, had cut off
language, refusing to answer questions
it placed. Jaime knew the
history and wrote a poem in his honor,
which circulated clandestinely, hand in hand,
and it was eventually published years later in
Onward: The Romance of Human Mouth Closed.

People who today was missing around here, this
harrowing desert of ideas and arrogance of
attitudes, which is the Portuguese society.

CJ

http://acincotons.blogspot.pt/

---------------------------------------------

Romance Of Man Mouth Closed

- Who is this dark man
Hard face, clear eyes,
What clenches her teeth and mouth
Because who does not want to talk?
- This is the Jaime Rebelo,
Fisherman, seaman,
If I wanted to open my mouth,
He had much to tell.

Now you will hear, comrades,
A history of daze.

Already spent a year and a day
And another came to pass,
And Rebelo not tired
From war to give Salazar.
By day had the high seas
At night, wild struggle,
For only loves Liberty
Who gives war on tyranny.
Already spent a year and a day ...
But one day, for treason,
Fell into the hands of thugs
And was taken to prison.

Steel handcuffs on his wrists,
Go to insults to enter,
Word Association,
They began to talk
- As you know, is a well
Be the evil, thou shalt tell it,
- I am not a traitor nor perjurer;
I am a man of faith: do not talk!
- Speech: either you will exile,
Or death by the sword.
- It is better to die with honor,
Deshonrada than life!
- See if you speak or not,
When put into torture.
- What care hard torments,
When the will is harder?!

Moaning the weight attached to the foal
He had the body to bleed,
Members had twisted
And the torments tightening,
So Jaime Rebelo,
Mad with pain, gasping,
He joined the last forces
To not have to talk.
- Before mute speak! -
He began to scream hoarsely,
And, Teal, a toothed
He cut his tongue in her mouth.

The vile mob of thugs
He was in front, haunted,
Have not come out of the mouth
More than bloody foam!

Salazar, carest the People
Te support when shut?
Nobody condemns you more
What that mouth speechless!

Phantom of the pain,
Even today it costs to see it;
The anguish of those hours
Not leaves Jaime Rebelo.
Fisherman who became man
Sea wind free,
He always brings that vision
In the shadow of the tough look,
Always mouth tight
Because who does not want to talk.

Jaime Cortes?o

Portugal, Ac??o Directa #2 - Society against the State (pt)

In primitive society, essentially egalitarian society, men are masters of their activity, 
lords of movement of products of this activity: they act only for themselves
own, since the law of exchange of goods only mediates the direct relationship of man with 
his product. --- Everything disarticulates therefore when the production activity moves 
away from its initial goal, when instead of producing only for themselves random, 
primitive man also produces for others, without Pierrsem exchange and reciprocity. Only 
then will we can talk about work: when the rule egalitarian exchange ceases to be the 
"code civil" society, where production activity is aimed at meeting the needs of others, 
when the rule of exchange is replaced by terror debt. Indeed is exactly there that fits 
the difference between the wild Amazonian Indians and the Inca empire.

The first produces, in short, to live, while the second works, over and over, to cause 
others to live - those who do not work, tell you who: meets and pay what we owe, it is 
imperative that you eternally Saldes debt that contra?ste us.

When, in primitive society, the economic field is allowed to identify as separate and 
defined, when the production activity becomes alienated labor, tax and counted by those 
who will take advantage of the fruits of that work, is a sign that the company no longer 
is primitive, became a society divided into rulers and ruled, masters and subjects in, and 
that left to exorcise what is destined to kill her: the power and respect to power. The 
main division of society, one that underpins all others, no doubt including the division 
of labor, is the new vertical arrangement between the base and summit is the big cut 
between holders of political power, whether military or religious and submitted to this
strength. The political relationship of power precedes and underlies the economic 
relationship of exploitation. Before being economic, political alienation is the power 
before work,
is a derivation of economic policy, the emergence of the state determines the appearance-
tion of classes. (...)

The real revolution in historiated proto-humanity, not the Neolithic, umavez she may well 
leave intactaa old social organization, but the revo-cation policy: is this mysterious 
apparition, irreversible, fatal for societies pri-mitivas, we know under the name of 
State. And if there is a desire to conserve the Marxist concepts of infrastructure and 
superstructure, then you may need to recognize that infrastructure is the political and 
economic superstructure is. Only a structural upheaval, can transform abysmal, destroying 
it as such primitive society: what stirs in her womb or from the outside, that whose 
absence defines this same society, the authority of the hierarchy, power relations, the 
domination of men, the state. It would be futile to seek its origin in a hypothetical 
change in the relations of production in primitive society, modification, slowly dividing 
society into rich and poor, exploiters and exploited, lead mechanically to instauraelo??o 
of an organ of political power of the former over the second, the emergence of the state.

Hypothetical, this modification of the economic base is still
more impossible. For that, in a given society, the regime
production turns towards a higher intensity
Work aimed at increased production of
goods, is necessary or that men wish that society
this transformation of their traditional way of life, or even
not wanting to, they are forced by an external violence. In the second
If nothing comes from society itself, which suffers the aggression of an external force
the benefit of which the production system will modify itself: work and produce more
to meet the needs of the new masters of power. The political oppression
determines flame allows exploration.

But the evocation of such a "staging"
serves no purpose, since it puts
an external source, contingent, immediate,
state violence, not the slow realization
domestic conditions, socioeconomic,
its appearance. The state, they say, is the
instrument which enables the ruling class
exercise its violent domination over
the dominated classes. Whatever. So that
there is the emergence of the state, it is necessary
therefore there is beforehand, the
division of society into classes
antagonistic interconnected by links
exploration. Therefore, the structure
division of society into classes should
precede the emergence of the state machine.

Let us note in passing the fragility
this purely instrumental conception
State. If society is organized by
able to exploit the oppressors oppress
of, because this is the ability to impose
alienation rests on the use of force, this
is, on what does the substance itself
State's "monopoly of violence
legitimate physical. "What needs answer
then the existence of a state,
once the essence is violence
immanent to the division of society, and this
violence exist in advance
oppression by a social group
on others? He would be only the
useless organ function fulfilled
before and elsewhere.

Articulating the emergence of the state machine
with the transformation of the social structure
leads only to roll back problem
this appearance. It is then necessary
ask why we produce, within
a primitive society, i.e., a
Non-divided society, the new division
men into rulers and ruled?
What is the biggest driver of this transformation
that would culminate in the installation
State? Its emergency
sanction the legitimacy of
private property that would
previously appeared and
State would be the representative and the
protective of the owners?

Very well. But why have arisen private property
a type of society that ignores, for refusal,
property? Why some wished to proclaim a day: ie
mine, and like others who have left to settle down so the germ of what
primitive society ignores, authority, oppression, the state? What is known today
primitive societies do not allow us to continue to seek the origin of the political 
economic level. It is this soil that the roots of the family tree
State. Nothing exists in the economic operation of a primitive society,
a stateless society, allowing the introduction of the difference between more
rich and poor, because then nobody has the strange desire to own, seem
more than your neighbor.
The capacity equal among all, to satisfy material needs, and exchange of goods and 
services that consistently prevents the accumulation of private property, simply become 
impossible the emergence of such a desire, the desire to possess what is actually desire
power. Primitive society, the first society of abundance, leaves no room for the 
overabundance of desire.

Primitive societies are societies without state because, in them, the state is
impossible. And though all civilized peoples were first wild: the
that made the state ceased to be impossible? Why are the people left
be wild? What a great event that allowed the revolution
Despot of the emergence of the figure, one who commands those who obey? Whence
comes political power? Mystery, perhaps temporary, of origin. (...)

(...) What does that mean? The prophets,
armed only his words, could
determine a "mobilization" of the Indians,
could accomplish this impossible thing in
primitive society: unify migration
religious diversity of multiple tribes.
They were able to perform, at a stroke,
the "program" Chiefs! Trap
the story? Fatality that despite everything
devotes itself to the primitive society
dependence? It is not known. But they had
much more power than what the
held the 2nd. So maybe it
must rectify the idea of ??the word as
opposed to violence. If the head is wild
Thanks to a duty to innocent word,
primitive society can also
evidently in certain conditions,
go back to listening to another
word, forgetting that word
is said as a command: is the word
prophetic. In the discourse of the prophets lies
perhaps in germ's speech
power, and in the guise exalted
conductor men
that affirms the desire of the other,
maybe if disguises already
the silent figure of Despot.

Prophetic word, power
word: it would place the original
power, the beginning of the State in Word?
Prophets conquerors of souls before
they are masters of men? Maybe.
But even experience extreme
prophecy (no doubt because society
Tupi-Guarani had reached, for reasons
demographic or other extreme limits
that determine how a society
primitive society), which the savages
show us is the ongoing effort to
prevent the chiefs and the chiefs being
refusal of unification, is the work of
conjuration of a state. The history of
People who have a history is, it is said, the
history of class struggle. The history of
people without history is, it is said to be with the
least as much truth, the story of their struggle
against the state.

Edition of the book:
http://www.arteeanarquia.xpg.com.br/
a_sociedade_contra_o_estado_pierre_clastres.htm

Cristiano Ronaldo wil meer geld

De Portugese superster van Real Madrid, Cristiano Ronaldo, weigerde vorige zondag zijn twee doelpunten te vieren omdat hij naar eigen zeggen ‘wat triest’ is. Ronaldo zou onstemd zijn omdat de clubleiding nog geen inspanningen heeft gedaan om zijn contract - dat in 2015 afloopt - te verlengen. De voetballer vindt dat hij meer respect verdient dan wat hij krijgt, gezien zijn aandeel in de successen van de Koninklijke sinds hij in 2009 Manchester inruilde voor de Koninklijke uit Madrid.

Dat respect moet vooral worden vertaald in geld, vindt Ronaldo en net daar wringt het schoentje. Spanje keurde vorig jaar de zogenaamde 'wet Beckham' goed, die stipuleert dat salarissen boven de 600.000 euro gedurende de eerste zes jaar met 24% moeten worden belast. Maar wanneer dit contract nu wordt verlengd, moet Real 52% aan de fiscus overmaken, een wereld van verschil.

Ronaldo kan het ook niet appreciëren dat zijn grote rivaal, de Argentijn Leo Messi van FC Barcelona, meer verdient dan de 10 miljoen euro netto die hij jaarlijks opstrijkt, sponsoring en andere contracten niet inbegrepen.

De Spaanse website Publico.es berekende dat de gemiddelde Spanjaard in deze crisistijden gemiddeld 20.206 euro per jaar verdient. Ronaldo strijkt 27.400 euro op... per dag, anderhalf keer meer dan het jaarloon van Juan-met-de-Pet, dus.

Nog volgens de krant was er vorig jaar slechts een Spanjaard die meer verdiende dan Ronaldo. Die is uiteraard te zoeken in de bankwereld. Alfredo Sáenz, de afgevaardigde bestuurder van de Banco Santander, verdiende vorig jaar 11,5 miljoen euro.

Wordt ongetwijfeld nog vervolgd.

Bron : Express.be

Portugals 134.000 verdwenen peuters

Tal van Portugezen hebben de fiscus in hun belastingaangifte van valse informatie voorzien teneinde kinderbijslag te kunnen trekken. Journalist Ferreira Fernandes heeft in de liberaal-conservatieve Diário de Notícias geen goed woord over voor zijn frauderende landgenoten:

‘Gisteren raakte bekend dat een ramp nog groter dan de Grote Aardbeving van Lissabon ons land heeft getroffen. Op amper twee jaar tijd zijn niet minder dan 134.000 kinderen verdwenen. Hoewel al deze kinderen in 2009 werden geregistreerd, verdwenen er 104.000 in 2010 en nog eens 30.000 in 2011... Eén grote, mysterieuze tragedie.

Hebben we - net als Herodes - een ganse generatie geëxecuteerd? De Bermudadriehoek zou niets betekenen in vergelijking met het zwarte gat op het ministerie van Financiën, waar deze kinderen voor het laatst werden gesignaleerd.

Zei ik ministerie van Financiën? Inderdaad, deze kinderen stonden in 2009 in de belastingsaangifte van hun ouders vermeld, maar toen het verplicht werd om het aantal kinderen ten laste op te geven, waren ze plots verdwenen.

Het waren dus spookkinderen, verzonnen om maandelijks tussen de 180 en 380 euro aan kinderbijslag te kunnen claimen.

Geen holocaust, maar papierfraude slechts. Gelukkig maar. Al lijkt het er sterk op dat we onszelf nog eens belachelijk hebben gemaakt, net nu de Duitsers ons met arusogen volgen.'

Bron : Express.be

Waarom Griekenland straks misschien laatst lacht... en hardst lacht

Een mogelijk Grieks faillissement en de daaropvolgende exit uit de eurozone wordt een ramp voor Griekenland en een risico voor Europa. Doch volgens Arvind Subramanian, een senior fellow bij het Peterson Institute for International Economics,  zou het wel eens anders kunnen uitdraaien.

Griekenland zou, buiten de eurozone, nog gevaarlijker kunnen zijn voor de eurozone dan er in, wanneer het land een voorbeeld wordt van hoe een failliete economie volledig kan herstellen buiten de monetaire unie.

De onmiddellijke gevolgen van een Griekse exit zouden uiteraard rampzalig zijn. Devaluatie en inflatie zullen in een eerste tijd de pan uitrijzen, terwijl kapitaal massaal het land uitvlucht. De overgang naar de drachme zou financiële chaos creëren en de fiscale besparingsmaatregelen zouden nog worden opgevoerd omdat Griekenland zelfs zonder interestbetalingen op de schuld met een overheidstekort zit.

De devaluatie van de nieuwe munt zou echter een proces in beweging zetten dat de Griekse economie terug kan doen groeien. Het is volgens Subramanian zelfs erg waarschijnlijk dat er na de Grexit niet enkel macro-economische stabiliteit, maar ook langdurige groei in het vooruitzicht liggen.

Het bewijs vindt hij in de ervaring van de landen die hun munt devalueerden tijdens de financiële crises van de jaren ’90 van vorige eeuw. Na een relatief korte economische krimp van één of twee jaar wisten deze landen hun problemen om te zetten in langdurige groei: Zuid-Korea groeide negen jaar lang met gemiddeld 6%, Indonesië met 5%, Rusland met 7% en Argentinië met 8%.

Er is dus leven na de (financiële) dood. Ook in Griekenland. De Griekse economie zou zich grondig kunnen heroriënteren op nieuwe exportindustrieën na een mega-ontwaarding. Hoe Griekenland er na het faillissement precies uit zal zien valt niet te voorspellen, maar de voordelen die gecreëerd zullen worden door de lage wisselkoers zijn onweerlegbaar.

Stel je voor dat de toestand in Griekenland tegen midden 2013 begint te verbeteren, terwijl de rest van de eurozone nog steeds in recessie zit, schrijft Subramanian. Kiezers in landen als Spanje, Portugal en Italië zouden niet blind blijven voor het succes van hun Griekse buren en zich beginnen af te vragen waarom zij de besparingen van Europa slaafs moeten blijven opvolgen.

Ook de Duitse politiek zou hiervan de gevolgen ondervinden. Tegenwoordig doet Duitsland het minimum om de eurozone in leven te houden. Als de euro verlaten een aantrekkelijker alternatief wordt, zal Berlijn de andere lidstaten een betere deal moeten aanbieden om te blijven.

Vandaag is Griekenland de paria van Europa die het verpest voor de hele eurozone. Maar als de situatie zich in de toekomst omkeert, en Griekenland het goed doet terwijl de eurozone lijdt, zullen velen de hele bestaansreden van de monetaire unie in vraag beginnen te stellen.

De Grieken lachen dan dus misschien echt laatst – en het hardst.

Bron : Financial Times / Express.be