As we hypothesized in the last issue of the newsletter, the "Mohammed Alliance" is structured as follows: Turkish President Erdogan, Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif, and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Bin Salman signed a mutual defense treaty, called the Mecca Accord, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Although the treaty states that an attack against one will be considered an attack against all, it is not an automatic common defense mechanism similar to NATO's Article 5. The deterrent function of the agreement is intended to replace US protection in the area, transferring responsibility to individual countries. The alliance does not have an anti-Iranian function, but it certainly rebalances the balance of power in the strategic Persian Gulf region. China appears to be heavily involved in the agreement, which, through its privileged relations with Pakistan and the promise of investment, particularly in infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, has acted as a guarantor. Egypt has not yet joined the alliance, deemed by Saudi Arabia to be unreliable and too closely tied to US policies and military supplies, as well as to economic aid, and therefore unable to fully adhere to the new alliance's interests. It is also primarily engaged in the war in South Sudan and the intervention in Libya, where its interests do not coincide with those of Turkey, which is largely present in the area alongside General Haftar.
The agreement stems from the realization that the presence of US bases in the Gulf has not served to protect the countries that accepted their presence and paid handsomely to the US. Rather, it has been the factor that has made these countries the target of Iranian retaliation. This is demonstrated by Saudi Arabia's last-minute warnings, which went unheeded, to Trump, advising him against waging war against its powerful neighbor.The Alliance leaves out the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait, a country in which Turkey has a strong military presence, but enjoys the full attention of Qatar, which has a military assistance agreement with Turkey. The Alliance's goal appears to be to reach a modus vivendi with Iran for the management of the region.
The United Arab Emirates, Israel's secret partner, will be able to continue their dirty business by plundering Africa.
The Alliance effectively establishes a cordon sanitaire around Israel and its expansionist policy through Turkey's control of Syria and its projection of power, once again from Turkey, into Iraq, a territory disputed by Iran, which exerts strong influence over the country through its Shiite minority. Jordan, a foolish servant of the United States, will likely remain the only country in the region hosting US bases, unless Israel decides to annex it, albeit gradually, given its largely Palestinian population.
Thanks to the new alliance, the United States sees its role as a thalassocratic power degraded as it must cede control of the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea to third-party powers that control the Straits of Hormuz and Bar-el-Mandev. The new alliance relies on Turkey to fulfill its role, having to keep at bay both the role of the Houthis, allies of Iran, who have demonstrated over the years the inadequacy of the Saudi armed forces, and find a way to counter the role of Hezbollah in Lebanon, a thorn in Israel's side and a defender of the Palestinians, along with Iran and the Houthis.
Zelenski and Kosovo
It should come as no surprise that Zelensky, visiting Serbia to shop for munitions and weapons-the Serbs are well-known arms dealers-used the opportunity to endorse the existence of Kosovo . He did so entirely coherently and respectfully of Ukraine's opposition to Donbass's demands for autonomy, earning the indignation of the Kosovars, who declared they would cease all aid to Ukraine, as they had done in the past.
In this case, the Ukrainian position is in line with Spain's, which has not recognized Kosovo so as not to have its refusal of autonomy toward the Basque Country and Catalonia challenged. Criticisms of Kosovo's existence highlight the contradiction in that the European Union, when it has been convenient, has supported the right to self-determination, only to deny it to the Russian-speaking populations of Donbass and blame Moscow. Thus, Kosovo, strongly supported by the European Union, clashes with the policies of its own sponsors and distances itself from Edi Rama's position of servile support for Ukraine. Inconsistency and the violation of principles are evidently a common trait in the life of states defending their interests.
Putin and the Pacific
Putin took advantage of your visit to the Kurile Islands, intended to reaffirm their belonging to Russia following the outcome of the Second World War, to announce a new cornerstone of Russia's political strategy of deterrence .
We do not intend here to engage in a debate on Russia's possession of these islands and the circumstances under which it entered the war against Japan and signed and concluded treaties with the Land of the Rising Sun. Nor do we intend to reflect on Japan's equally worrying rearmament, in violation of the Japanese Constitution itself. Instead, we intend to highlight the content of his statement.
Having noted and acknowledged the repeated attacks by Western countries on oil tankers belonging to the so-called Russian shadow fleet, which distributes Russian oil, and the completely illegitimate controls on Russian or Russian-linked vessels, Putin declared that from now on Russia will respond with an asymmetric intervention on maritime traffic near its Pacific coast. He received a detailed report from the Admiral Commander of the Pacific Sector on the types and nationalities of vessels encountered in those seas and their affiliations to different states, a sign that Russia has long been monitoring maritime traffic in the area, and is ready to act in the area most favorable to it. This decision widens the dangers of conflict and the theater of war, transforming the ongoing conflict into a global confrontation.
Ukraine: Port blockade
In response to Ukraine's disruption of maritime traffic from Russian ports on the Black Sea and the bombing of oil terminals, including those of third-party countries, that use those coasts, Russia unleashed a retaliatory strike that struck deep into Ukrainian port facilities located in the remaining coastal area, consisting of Odessa and the ports on the Danube, under Ukrainian control .
The bombing was devastating, disabling bridges, crucial hubs for the transit of goods in the area, both by road and rail, systematically destroying locomotives, which, due to the different gauge, were difficult to replace with new ones supplied by the West. The impassability of the roads blocked access for goods from neighboring Romania and Moldova, and immobilized thousands of tons of wheat, sunflower seeds, and barley in silos and storage facilities, which were also hit, impeding both the storage of the upcoming harvest and its marketing.
The blockade of Ukrainian ports is complete not only because of the effectiveness of Russian bombing but also because their bombings act as a deterrent, advising shipping companies not to insure ships bound for Ukraine, effectively interrupting the transit of goods.
Faced with this situation, Ukraine is forced to seek alternative transit routes, not only by reaching the port of Constanta (Romania) with enormous difficulty, but also by passing overland through Polish or Romanian territory. This has sparked a rebellion among farmers in those countries, who see their agricultural markets swamped by Ukrainian products of questionable healthiness and marketability due to war-related pollution, but sold at rock-bottom prices that undermine the incomes of farmers in other countries. What is happening is only increasing resentment toward Ukrainians and creating the conditions for a global food crisis due to both the blockade of Russian and Ukrainian exports.
Japan
This unexpected move was made to prevent Japan from resorting to selling US Treasury bonds held by the Japanese bank, but it surprised the European Central Bank, which was notified only after the transaction had been concluded, effectively transforming the European currency into a means of cushioning the Asian country's currency crisis . The Japanese currency crisis occurred because the Bank of Japan (BoJ) had long maintained an ultra-accommodative monetary policy and near-zero interest rates, unlike Western banks. Investors thus borrowed cheaply in yen to invest in more profitable foreign assets, denominated in dollars, and the Japanese currency experienced a drastic depreciation and sudden fluctuations that required a joint bailout. To carry out the bailout, Washington avoided selling dollars so as not to alter the internal dynamics of its own currency and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The impact of this maneuver was devastating for the value of the euro: by selling euros to buy yen, the United States indirectly shifted part of the burden of this macroeconomic rebalancing onto the Eurozone. An incompetent, cowardly, and servile political class was unable to react.
Syria
Syrian President Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, renamed Ahmed al-Sharaa in January 2025, signed an agreement with the Russian Federation after two years of negotiations to maintain, albeit with a "softened" role and functions, the management of the Russian naval base in Tartus. The base has been downsized to a logistics support center to allow Russian naval warships in the Mediterranean to avoid having to return to the Black Sea for maintenance, which has been made unsafe by Ukrainian attacks . In exchange, Russia has assured Syria of access to military instructors, supplies of wheat and food, and technical assistance. The Russian presence also serves an obvious deterrent function against governments hostile to the Syrian one.
It should be noted that the agreement could not be reached without the consent of the US government, which has al-Jawlani under its wing, and even more so of Turkey, his great sponsor and protector. In this way, Putin keeps an eye and an ear on the Mediterranean, which adds to the Russian presence in Cyrenaica (Libya, a territory from which the Russians project their presence towards Central Africa, expanding their influence in South Sudan, Niger, the Central African Republic as far as Burkina Faso and Mali), areas in which they have taken the place of the French in supporting the fight against jihadism supported by the United Arab Emirates, which trades in gold and diamonds.
The Editorial Staff
https://www.ucadi.org/2026/09/06/osservatorio-internazionale/
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Source: A-infos-en@ainfos.ca
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